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Central PA Autumn 2023


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46 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I like the look of the 12z Canadian out at day 9. The system this run ends up passing off to our south, but I would take my chances with this look.

Hopefully we get this type of chance several times this season.

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Gulf is open for business. That's how you win up there in PA.

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

18Z GFS is very interesting in the 300's.   Before that a wet Nor'Easter next weekend and a few days in the 50's next week including Turkey Day. 

The pattern being advertised on the ensembles & towards the end of the Op runs for the last week of November into the first week of December should provide a window of opportunity for potential Winter weather in our region.

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If you're wondering why I don't see us getting much snow again this year this is why. Obviously there are still parts of the globe that are colder than average but this has been an unprecedented increase in global temps since June. I was really curious if this insane heat would survive until winter and well...looks like it still is. This only serves to reduce our chances of getting snow this winter. Not that we CAN'T get lots of snow this winter it's just all the extra heat really throws a wrench into our normal chances. I legitimately thought the insanely hot temps would have gone back down by now but it hasn't. Obviously things depend on local weather patterns and how storms and cold air align. My main point here is this type of global heat just reduces snow chances for many places. Maybe we'll luck out this year who knows.

 

Oh and the most mindblowing part about this heat? Most of this heat hasn't had much of an impact from the El Nino yet. The lag period we'll eventually feel from the heat globally from El Nino won't happen until 2024 lol so it's only going to get hotter

 

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10 hours ago, mitchnick said:

We need consistent support for snowfall on the ensembles or we're just getting our chains jerked by the operationals imho. Ensembles have all had a run here and there that looked promising, then lost it. Just too early for anything legit unfortunately.  

The frustrating side of following ensembles for specific weather in my opinion.  Good for verification of Op's and large-scale atmospheric forecasts but for slp's and day to day reality, they can jump around just like the op's since they are essentially a group of op's (sometimes lower resolution) running the same data but with slight deviations to try and capture all the different possibilities.   For specific details, I think one has to look at each member of an ensemble and see if the LR forecasts are similar as just looking at the resulting average map does not give us any idea of how much variability there was among the members. 

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18 hours ago, canderson said:

56 at 1:30. Just came on from 2 hours out moving leaves around to the curb. You s think living in the city I would’ve have many - if I bagged these leaves I’d have 30+ bags. 

 

18 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

They all blew in from the 'Burbs.   56 here as well.  Another above normal day in the books. 

just so happens i don't have any leaves :lmao:  thanks bro :P

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Each of the 3 major global ensembles still have a favorable looking pattern for the last week of November into the first week of December.

We could have some chances with these looks showing.

It is also good to see a general agreement at this range.

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Its a nice look for late Autumn.  Happy to see it, now can it give us some love?  Coldish looks to be pretty much a lock for that period.  Good stuff.

 

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Today will be almost 10 degrees colder in spots compared to yesterday. A nice sunny fall day before rain moves in tomorrow morning. There is a chance some higher spots in NW Chesco could see a few flakes of snow or some ice pellets if the precipitation moves in fast enough in the AM. Either way it looks like between 1.5" to 2.0" of rain are possible tomorrow with chilly temps remaining in the low to mid 40's across the county. Below normal temps and dry weather look likely for the rest of the holiday week.
Records for today: High 75 (1985) / Low 16 (1951) / Rain 1.80 (1952) / Snow 0.8" (1937)
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Low of 28 here.  A nice much-needed inch-plus drenching in store for most of the forum tomorrow.  National high of 90 at Rio Grande Village, TX and 3 at Mount Washington, NH.  MDT running 1.1 AN for the month; should be able to peck away at that over the next ten days.  Happy T-giving week, all.  Get those turkeys thawing!

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