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Central PA Autumn 2023


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Our last mild day with above normal temps will be today before the turn to below normal temps through much of the rest of November and in to the month of December. Partly sunny today with some light showers possible late tonight. The cold front crosses toward daybreak tomorrow and temperatures tomorrow will hold steady or slowly fall through the 40's. Some higher locales will struggle to escape the 40's all of the next week. We finally have a likely rain event starting on Tuesday afternoon. We could see near 1.5" of rain across much of Chester County. Even colder by Thanksgiving day with some higher elevation spots struggling to reach the mid-30's.
Records for today: High 76 (1896) / Low 9 (1933) / Rain 3.40" (1935) / Snow 1.0" (1980)
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Happy Friday all.

Looking at overnights, and notable disparity between Op and Ens guidance regarding next week (Im just talking 500s as we need them right before worrying about surface maps).  

IF GEPS/GEFS/EPS are correct, a less cutty and colder solution would have merit.

IF GFS/Euro Ops are correct, warmer wet wins.  

This will be interesting to see how Pre Turk Day event evolves, as it may give a clue to what models have a clue for the upcoming "fun" months. 

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22 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I just want there to be a storm with some precipitation.

Yeah, agreed.  0z shows a miller b that jumps over us after some modest precip hits our area.  6z stepped away from the cutter look as primary pops east of us.  Not putting much weight in anything yet, but hoping that it continues to step away from cutter (which it might be seeing what the Ens guidance is showing at 500's - forcing energy further south).  Dunno 

 

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20 minutes ago, paweather said:

Breaking: JI canceling 23-24 and 24-25 winters.

Not completely true - he has already cancelled the winter of 24-25, but he's about to cancel this winter. Just not yet. :) LOL

Ji is the smartest comedian here - I make sure that I'm not eating or drinking when he's active posting. Guy is legit funny. Like I said, he knows when to play his game though because he really does have a great knowledge/understanding. 

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4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Not completely true - he has already cancelled the winter of 24-25, but he's about to cancel this winter. Just not yet. :) LOL

Ji is the smartest comedian here - I make sure that I'm not eating or drinking when he's active posting. Guy is legit funny. Like I said, he knows when to play his game though because he really does have a great knowledge/understanding. 

JI is one of the founding fathers of this type of board....he knows a lot more about weather than he lets on and like you said, enjoys the attention of being the funny guy.  Dude monetized his weather skill so have to give props there.

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

JI is one of the founding fathers of this type of board....he knows a lot more about weather than he lets on and like you said, enjoys the attention of being the funny guy.  Dude monetized his weather skill so have to give props there.

No doubt about it! He has been around a very long time like I have been. He knows more about weather than a lot of us. 

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