Central PA Autumn 2023

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Actually, globals are in pretty decent agreement with slp location at 18z on Friday. It's after that where they diverge.

WPC still favoring higher coastal impacts:

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Kudos to ABC for not showing the injury as graphically as it can be seen all over social media. I went online looking for something else last night and got sick in the stomach when I saw the injury zoomed in. No wonder the entire stadium gasped. 

Chubb is/was such an underrated back. I feel horrible for him. And honestly the city of Cleveland. 

Yea, it was gruesome.  Definitely not something for general TV.    He is seemingly a true, upstanding person as evidenced by all the people who have chimed in on Twitter. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

WPC still favoring higher coastal impacts:

Can't disagree with that map at this range.

[Bubbler86]

13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

WPC still favoring higher coastal impacts:

Kudos to them for having a nice middle ground with the different solutions on table.    I had initially commented that their map was a little light for the LSV but now with some ensemble members showing zip (and the GFS op) I agree with Mitchnick that it is good for this range.   Meso extended runs come into range in the next couple hours. 

[ChescoWx]

Our great autumnal weather continues for the remainder of this week. Temps should tend to average a bit below normal for latter September. Tonight looks to be the chilliest night with many lower spots across the county seeing temps falling into the 40's. Rain chances increase from south to north by Saturday afternoon.

Records for today: High 92 (1983) / Low 36 (1943) / Rain 3.27" (1894)

[canderson]

I'm good with no rain on Saturday. Want to go for a long walk somewhere (any suggestions that has a decent shaded area and isn't rocky - ie fairly flat and maintained (gravel, dirt is fine)?

[Itstrainingtime]

33 minutes ago, canderson said:

I'm good with no rain on Saturday. Want to go for a long walk somewhere (any suggestions that has a decent shaded area and isn't rocky - ie fairly flat and maintained (gravel, dirt is fine)?

There are 2 trails along the Susquehanna in Lancaster County - the Northwest Lancaster County River Trail is 14 miles in length, 6' wide, and paved. It is closer to you and runs from Falmouth (near TMI) down to Columbia. It is heavily used and will have a lot of traffic IF the weather is nice. Nice vantage points include the White Cliffs of Conoy and the Shock's Mill Railroad Bridge.  http://nwrt.info/ This trail is MUCH more shaded than the trail below

Further south, the Enola Low Grade trail runs from Conestoga (bottom of Turkey Hill) all the way into Chester County in Atglen. It's 29 miles in length and is gravel. This trail is flatter than the NWLCRT and crosses the Safe Harbor trestle. Only the first 5-10 miles is along the river, after that it begins to curve away. 

Both of those trails are recreational trails for bikes and pedestrians, these are not "hikes"...

[Bubbler86]

Check out the shield/deform band on the 12Z Icon.    Better than anything we got last winter from my memory.

 

[pasnownut]

since were doing a little model disco, I'll add that the Icon has jogged notably east of its prior 2 runs.  Not diggin too deep but as we look for trends, it went toward easter globals of earlier this morning.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Check out the shield/deform band on the 12Z Icon.    Better than anything we got last winter from my memory.

 

It is better than anything we had last winter. 

I have a new team member here at work who started a few weeks ago. She comes into my office this morning and randomly proclaimed her love for the Baltimore Orioles and also for snowstorms. 

That...is how to recruit. 

[Bubbler86]

10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It is better than anything we had last winter. 

I have a new team member here at work who started a few weeks ago. She comes into my office this morning and randomly proclaimed her love for the Baltimore Orioles and also for snowstorms. 

That...is how to recruit. 

Fav football team? 

[anotherman]

10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It is better than anything we had last winter. 

I have a new team member here at work who started a few weeks ago. She comes into my office this morning and randomly proclaimed her love for the Baltimore Orioles and also for snowstorms. 

That...is how to recruit. 

She's just a frontrunner with the new Orioles fandom.

[Bubbler86]

12Z GFS looks a lot like the WPC map as to precip distribution.   Both the Icon and GFS block the low near our latitude and send to close to due east.   The CMC holds it's guns for the most part and sends the SLP up into central NY.  The CMC is showing no respect for the dome of HP in Canada and almost seems to find a channel for the low to slip behind it. 

[Itstrainingtime]

27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Fav football team? 

Some team from the Metroplex in Texas?

26 minutes ago, anotherman said:

She's just a frontrunner with the new Orioles fandom.

Well I thought that but her 6 year old son is named Camden.

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Some team from the Metroplex in Texas?

Well I thought that but her 6 year old son is named Camden.

If you are serious that was why I asked because it seemed to be conveniently left out during football season. 

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

There are 2 trails along the Susquehanna in Lancaster County - the Northwest Lancaster County River Trail is 14 miles in length, 6' wide, and paved. It is closer to you and runs from Falmouth (near TMI) down to Columbia. It is heavily used and will have a lot of traffic IF the weather is nice. Nice vantage points include the White Cliffs of Conoy and the Shock's Mill Railroad Bridge.  http://nwrt.info/ This trail is MUCH more shaded than the trail below

Further south, the Enola Low Grade trail runs from Conestoga (bottom of Turkey Hill) all the way into Chester County in Atglen. It's 29 miles in length and is gravel. This trail is flatter than the NWLCRT and crosses the Safe Harbor trestle. Only the first 5-10 miles is along the river, after that it begins to curve away. 

Both of those trails are recreational trails for bikes and pedestrians, these are not "hikes"...

Thanks!! We've done pretty much everything around - the rail trail in Lebanon, Boyds, etc etc but these are new to me! 

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

If you are serious that was why I asked because it seemed to be conveniently left out during football season. 

 Oh,  I'm serious. And it was a blatant omission from my post.  

  Now, I will say that she offered her Oriole Fandom to me. Perhaps in part because my office is a shrine to the team and I wear a lot of Orange and Black O's polos to work. I had to ask about football.

Also...it's still very much baseball season in Balmer! 

[sauss06]

7 minutes ago, canderson said:

Thanks!! We've done pretty much everything around - the rail trail in Lebanon, Boyds, etc etc but these are new to me! 

have you walked the Allison hill section of Harrisburg? 

[Itstrainingtime]

10 minutes ago, canderson said:

Thanks!! We've done pretty much everything around - the rail trail in Lebanon, Boyds, etc etc but these are new to me! 

There is more room to spread out on the Enola trail and it is very flat (old railroad bed) but the one up north is our "go to" (though I'm only 2 miles away) and is loved by most users. Just be aware that some bicyclists don't seem to understand that it's a multi-use trail and will ride at Tour de France speeds amongst strollers, pedestrians, etc. It is a gorgeous place to walk! 

[canderson]

16 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

have you walked the Allison hill section of Harrisburg? 

True story - my wife was taking pictures of an old building there years ago for a newspaper and was hollered at that she should leave the ghost and come with them. 

[sauss06]

Just now, canderson said:

True story - my wife was taking pictures of an old building there years ago for a newspaper and was hollered at that she should leave the ghost and come with them. 

yeah, its pretty rough. When i'm there, i'm armed. 

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

yeah, its pretty rough. When i'm there, i'm armed. 

This reminds me of a post I once saw when searching for something.    It addresses Allison Hill and H-Burg Crime in general.  A LOOOONG time ago I used to help out at the Bethesda Mission.

https://theburgnews.com/news/5-myths-harrisburg-midtown-allison-hillits-debunking-time

 

 

[sauss06]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

This reminds me of a post I once saw when searching for something.    It addresses Allison Hill and H-Burg Crime in general.  A LOOOONG time ago I used to help out at the Bethesda Mission.

https://theburgnews.com/news/5-myths-harrisburg-midtown-allison-hillits-debunking-time

 

 

Yeah, the writer should go back and visit Allison Hill  

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, canderson said:

I'm good with no rain on Saturday. Want to go for a long walk somewhere (any suggestions that has a decent shaded area and isn't rocky - ie fairly flat and maintained (gravel, dirt is fine)?

Have you ever tried the C&O Canal from around Harper's Ferry, WV north or south. Can't get any flatter and pretty picturesque. 

[Itstrainingtime]

MU on the weekend:

By Friday night and Saturday, my attention will turn toward the southeastern U.S. coastline for possible tropical development. An old, washed-out, and quasi-stationary frontal boundary over the Florida Peninsula could serve as the breeding ground for this potential tropical cyclone. Disturbances that move east-or-northeastward along these stalled fronts often tap into the deep, tropical moisture available in the Bahamas and/or Gulf of Mexico and become more organized. Sometimes, they eventually obtain tropical characteristics and are then named by the National Hurricane Center. In this case, the disturbance of interest is currently quite disorganized and located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico. By Thursday, it will exit off the east coast of the Florida Peninsula and then move slowly north-or-northeastward off the southeastern U.S. and Carolina coastlines through Friday night or Saturday. If the disturbance becomes a tropical storm on Friday or over the weekend, it would likely acquire the name "Ophelia."

Numerical computer models are notoriously bad at handling the timing, track, and intensity of such disturbances, so it's no surprise that a broad range of outcomes are currently on the table. Some models simulate rapid intensification and a landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border sometime between late Saturday morning and Saturday night, while others suggest a weaker system and track along or just off the Carolina coastline. In the first case, the weakening, remnant low pressure system would likely reach northern MD and southern PA by Sunday or Monday, but rainy and windy conditions could arrive as early as late Saturday morning or early afternoon. The rest of the weekend would also turn out cool, damp, and dreary with showers or periods of rain persisting through Sunday and perhaps even into Monday. In the worst-case scenario, winds could gust as high as 40 mph later Saturday through Saturday night with up to 3-5" of rain falling through early next week. However, the second case mentioned above would result in an entirely different outcome in this weekend's weather. Instead of a washout, Saturday could just turn out cloudy and a bit cooler with intermittent showers or a brief period of steadier, light rain before drier, brighter and warmer conditions return on Sunday. At this point, either solution.. or anything in between.. are equally as likely. The strength and speed of a cold frontal boundary diving southward out of eastern Canada will be a key factor in determining the track of the potential tropical system. A weaker, slower front would give the system more leeway to track farther north and west, while a stronger, faster front would suppress the system and kick it out-to-sea more quickly. Check back in late this week for an update! -- Elliott

[TheClimateChanger]

HOT DIGGITY DOG! With the fall equinox looming in a few days, I figured I'd take a look at the numbers for astronomical summer. Although, admittedly, the date of the summer solstice can vary slightly from the 6-21 start I used.

This has been the 3rd warmest astronomical summer to date in Bradford, Pennsylvania (out of 65 years):

This is the 14th warmest at Harrisburg (out of 136 years):

This is the 19th warmest at Williamsport (out of 129 years):

Just across the Mason-Dixon line, this has been the 11th warmest astronomical summer at Hagerstown, Maryland:

[TheClimateChanger]

Heck of a way to run a cool summer!

[Bubbler86]

28 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

HOT DIGGITY DOG! With the fall equinox looming in a few days, I figured I'd take a look at the numbers for astronomical summer. Although, admittedly, the date of the summer solstice can vary slightly from the 6-21 start I used.

This has been the 3rd warmest astronomical summer to date in Bradford, Pennsylvania (out of 65 years):

This is the 14th warmest at Harrisburg (out of 136 years):

This is the 19th warmest at Williamsport (out of 129 years):

Just across the Mason-Dixon line, this has been the 11th warmest astronomical summer at Hagerstown, Maryland:

And the second driest year at this date just across the MD Line at HGR. 

[Bubbler86]

The Euro is back to keeping two sperate pieces of energy, something it showed a few runs ago, with the whole thing being a nothing event rainwise for most of the East coast as to Saturday.  A little rain in Eastern NC and far SE DelMarVa.  

[TheClimateChanger]

15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

And the second driest year at this date just across the MD Line at HGR. 

Yeah, this is a notable combination for Hagerstown: 3rd warmest and driest YTD. Surprisingly, very little drought with most of Washington County labelled only as abnormally dry (see below).

Regarding temperatures on a year-to-date basis, 8 out of the top 10 warmest have occurred since within the past 14 years, and expanding out a bit (not shown) 9 of the top 12 and 10 of the top 14. Curiously, 3 of the top 6 driest YTD periods have also occurred in the past 14 years, with 5 of the top 6 from the 21st century.

3rd warmest year to date

Driest year to date

Maryland Drought Monitor