Central PA Autumn 2023

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

 

It really is unbelievable. they find ways to win and somehow stay relevant for maybe a post season run. ( i chuckled when i typed that) 

I was thinking of you Sunday while watching the game, i'm sure you had a good time on your annual visit.

 

 

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

I think a lot of it is the psychological beating people take if they think they are going to win and do not.... many people turtle up and say bad things so if it turns out bad, it is easier to swallow.  Not in your case though, you are more than fair on both sides of the pendulum. 

To both of your points -

There were 2 HUGE penalty calls on Sunday that affected the outcome. BOTH went against Green Bay. The PI call early on was NOT a flaggable offense. And then the backwards pass from Pickett that was called incomplete when it should have been a GB touchdown...just 2 really, really bad calls and both went Pittsburgh's way. 

Perhaps a typical fan would say "yeah well, we usually have all the calls go against us, so we were due anyway" while I was saying "those calls likely cost GB the game." 

It's just the way it went and I'll be honest enough to call it the way it was. 

[Itstrainingtime]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It was funny the day after games. She lived in Shady Side off 5th avenue and there was a grocery store near her apartment. There was this group of retired guys that would drink coffee and eat donuts out front of the store every Monday and complain about how it "wasn't a good victory" and dissect the game play by play. I thought that was a one off, but that scene repeated itself all over the city. Random people just arguing over the quality of winds. I've never seen that anywhere else in any other fan base! 

As for this winter, I think S Central PA hits climo snow. Probably nothing to write home about for this winter, I truly hope I'm wrong. I've become increasingly pessimistic about "good winters" where the season isn't a torch and snow cover lasts more than 20 minutes.

That has been my biggest disappointment over the past 20 or so years. Even when we get a nice snow pack, it seldom lasts. I mentioned here a week or 2 ago, I had 3 feet of snow on the ground on 2/10/2010. 5 days later my south exposed yard was toast. How does that much snow melt in 5 days? I had 2 feet of snow cover in mid-February, 1983 and it lasted a full 2 weeks. If we don't get snow in late December or early January it's going to take an anomalous air mass for it to have any lasting power. 

[Eskimo Joe]

For snow lovers, here is your chance to get some early season flakes in the next 10 - 14 days. A great discussion courtesy of @brooklynwx99

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there have been some posts on next week's potentially exciting pattern, so I thought I'd share some more coherent thoughts... the main driver for this change in the pattern from -PNA/+EPO to +PNA/-EPO will be an anomalously strong +EAMT (east Asian mountain torque) that will develop over the next couple of days. HP is around 3-4 sigma above normal here

the way EAMT works is that since the pressure gradient force is pointed to the west (wind blows from HP to LP), the Pacific jet must extend in order to conserve the total momentum. we see this Pacific jet extension here:

the Pacific jet extension then forces a strong Aleutian / GoA LP (yay El Nino) that leads to an anomalous -EPO that is also timed up with a +PNA! no more -EPO/-PNA crap from last year, it seems. these patterns are very efficient at driving Arctic air into the CONUS, especially the Plains eastward. given split flow and the displacement of the TPV into SE Canada, there is certainly an increased risk at seeing wintry weather, even south of the M-D line. either way, there is a reason for this pattern to develop... I don't think it's model fantasy BS

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Stillers are the worst 6-3 team in the history of professional sports. The Packers had 5 plays of 35+ yards on Sunday - 4 of them came on 3rd and long. The 5th was in the final minute with Jordan Love throwing essentially a hail mary to avoid a sack...except for the fact that the hail mary was to go a guy who had no one within the city limits covering him. 

How this team keeps winning is beyond me. Well, they don't turn the ball over. That's one thing. And they can run it some now. Other than that...yeesh. 

This past weekend was the best weather day that we've ever had. Low 50s and full sun in November. It was a glorious fall football Sunday in Pittsburgh. 

Ain't that the truth friend.  Been discussing this very thing with some guys here at work today.  All smoke and mirrors with this edition of the Steelers.  As you know, my Packers are.......not great ha.  And yet, they probably coulda shoulda won that game if not for a couple of things that coulda shoulda happened.  Also, in what has become a weekly tradition during LaFleur's tenure, Green Bay is always good for a special teams gaff that comes back to haunt them -- this time by way of a missed extra point that led to them not being able to kick a game-tying field goal at the end of the game.  Does anybody think there's much of a difference between those two teams we watched on Sunday, and yet one is 6-3 and the other is 3-6.  I digress.

[Eskimo Joe]

41 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That has been my biggest disappointment over the past 20 or so years. Even when we get a nice snow pack, it seldom lasts. I mentioned here a week or 2 ago, I had 3 feet of snow on the ground on 2/10/2010. 5 days later my south exposed yard was toast. How does that much snow melt in 5 days? I had 2 feet of snow cover in mid-February, 1983 and it lasted a full 2 weeks. If we don't get snow in late December or early January it's going to take an anomalous air mass for it to have any lasting power. 

I was at Millersville University from 2005 - 2011 (undergrad and grad school). The longest snowpack that I ever saw was post Valentine's Day 2007 storm. Truly, an event to remember. We went from snow to ice/rain, then outright vodka cold. Students were walking on top of the ice pack for several days and the Susquehanna River froze over so much that people were 4-wheeling near Rt. 999 & Rt. 441.

[Itstrainingtime]

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I was at Millersville University from 2005 - 2011 (undergrad and grad school). The longest snowpack that I ever saw was post Valentine's Day 2007 storm. Truly, an event to remember. We went from snow to ice/rain, then outright vodka cold. Students were walking on top of the ice pack for several days and the Susquehanna River froze over so much that people were 4-wheeling near Rt. 999 & Rt. 441.

Oh yes, I go through that intersection twice every day. I hesitate to share stories like that, fearing that I'll sound like the proverbial grandpa telling the kids about walking through waist-deep snow...

[Itstrainingtime]

19 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Ain't that the truth friend.  Been discussing this very thing with some guys here at work today.  All smoke and mirrors with this edition of the Steelers.  As you know, my Packers are.......not great ha.  And yet, they probably coulda shoulda won that game if not for a couple of things that coulda shoulda happened.  Also, in what has become a weekly tradition during LaFleur's tenure, Green Bay is always good for a special teams gaff that comes back to haunt them -- this time by way of a missed extra point that led to them not being able to kick a game-tying field goal at the end of the game.  Does anybody think there's much of a difference between those two teams we watched on Sunday, and yet one is 6-3 and the other is 3-6.  I digress.

If anything, the Packers might be better. They have more talent at a lot of positions. I certainly see it. 

I suspect that the lack of talent catches up with the Steelers in the coming weeks. Also - through 10 weeks, the Steelers have played only 3 away games. Things could potentially flip very quickly...

[canderson]

54 and sunny at noon with gusty winds in the low 20s. 

[Bubbler86]

Pleasant and 52 at noon.    Central LSV sites seem a good 3-6 degrees higher today at 55-58. 

[paweather]

Thanksgiving snow getting better 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, paweather said:

Thanksgiving snow getting better 

12Z Op GFS has a system forming off the SE coast in the wake of the Wed Rain but the LW pattern gives it the scoot. 

[paweather]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

12Z Op GFS has a system forming off the SE coast in the wake of the Wed Rain but the LW pattern gives it the scoot. 

Yeah early yet just hopeful we are definitely seem to headed in a wintry pattern 

[canderson]

Presented without commentary: AI is starting to outperform meteorologists 

https://www.engadget.com/ai-is-starting-to-outperform-meteorologists-173616631.html?src=rss&guccounter=1

[Bubbler86]

 

1 minute ago, canderson said:

Presented without commentary: AI is starting to outperform meteorologists 

https://www.engadget.com/ai-is-starting-to-outperform-meteorologists-173616631.html?src=rss&guccounter=1

How do we know you are not AI?  

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, paweather said:

Yeah early yet just hopeful we are definitely seem to headed in a wintry pattern 

It definately looks better if one holds much weight in Ens guidance, it will surely be a pattern that might give a little to some of us. 

Cherrypicked for weenie purposes.  if one rolls through GFS ENS 2m temp anomalies, lots n lots of peeps gonna b feeling the blues.  

[Bubbler86]

For the LSV.....12Z Euro a week out....really close to normal most of the first 6-7 days outside this Thursday and Friday which are much above normal.   Then not so ideal for Thanksgiving white mischief. 

 

 

 

 

[pasnownut]

and to add to above, broad slight ridging out west w/ skightly +PNA and some troughiness here in the east, but at times has a zonalish kinda progression, but not a horrid SE ridge by any means.

 

[mitchnick]

I'll take this as a legit pattern change to Niño on the Euro 12z. Qpf total thru 216 hrs.

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

I'll take this as a legit pattern change to Niño on the Euro 12z. Qpf total tglhru 217 hrs.

Total QPF on GFS suite shows east getting some appreciable precip as well.  Lets hope the pattern change delivers.  Not sure how much coin to throw in, but I'm surely not foldin...

 

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'll take this as a legit pattern change to Niño on the Euro 12z. Qpf total thru 216 hrs.

Much needed. 

[paweather]

Rev up Frosty the snowman 

[paweather]

Next week:

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Presented without commentary: AI is starting to outperform meteorologists 

https://www.engadget.com/ai-is-starting-to-outperform-meteorologists-173616631.html?src=rss&guccounter=1

Not shocking.  Our lawyers here at work are starting to contract with some sort of AI apparatus that specializes in legal research.  This stuff is coming for everyone and everything, for better or worse.

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Not shocking.  Our lawyers here at work are starting to contract with some sort of AI apparatus that specializes in legal research.  This stuff is coming for everyone and everything, for better or worse.

Stupid lawyers. Once management realizes they don't need them thanks to AI, it's a Dios. 

[Bubbler86]

33 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Stupid lawyers. Once management realizes they don't need them thanks to AI, it's a Dios. 

Wall-E may not be too far around the corner.

 

Mow #17 in the books. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Anyone interested in making 2023-24 seasonal snowfall guesses for fun? (I don't have the time to compile and track everyone's guesses, but I'll provide mine for 4 terminals in our area):

IPT: 58"

MDT: 37"

LNS: 29"

THV: 33" 

[canderson]

10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Anyone interested in making 2023-24 seasonal snowfall guesses for fun? (I don't have the time to compile and track everyone's guesses, but I'll provide mine for 4 terminals in our area):

IPT: 58"

MDT: 37"

LNS: 29"

THV: 33" 

IPT: 41"

MDT: 22"

LNS: 31"

THV: 478"

[Bubbler86]

15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Anyone interested in making 2023-24 seasonal snowfall guesses for fun? (I don't have the time to compile and track everyone's guesses, but I'll provide mine for 4 terminals in our area):

IPT: 58"

MDT: 37"

LNS: 29"

THV: 33" 

IPT: 39

MDT: 28

LNS: 35

THV (Not sure they record precip): 33

HGR: 26

[TheClimateChanger]

23 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Anyone interested in making 2023-24 seasonal snowfall guesses for fun? (I don't have the time to compile and track everyone's guesses, but I'll provide mine for 4 terminals in our area):

IPT: 58"

MDT: 37"

LNS: 29"

THV: 33" 

Ballsy as hell. Would be the most since 2002-2003. In fact, there's only been two other winters within a foot of that amount over that timeframe (2020-2021, 54.3; and 2003-2004, 55.5).

[paweather]

Palmyra 66.7”

IPT: 0.7”

MDT: 1.6”

LNS: 2.3”

THV: 3.2”