Central PA Autumn 2023

[Bubbler86]

Turkey eve

 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Turkey eve

 

18z GFS agrees with the Euro that some parts of PA have a chance of some Turkey Day Eve snow.

[mitchnick]

GEFS seeing the potential now too.

[Albedoman]

Channel 69 news ran with this BS tonight. Boy the weenies are coming to the surface now.

 

https://www.wfmz.com/news/area/lehighvalley/69-news-meteorologist-discusses-european-weather-model-forecasting-december-snow-in-lehigh-valley-that-took/article_7af2db2c-8263-11ee-bfee-7b74ff14fc43.html

[Bubbler86]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

GEFS seeing the potential now too.

A bit unrelated but do you remember johnc1182 from years ago?  Think the number is right....we could use some comic relief like that.

[Yardstickgozinya]

4 hours ago, Albedoman said:

Channel 69 news ran with this BS tonight. Boy the weenies are coming to the surface now.

 

https://www.wfmz.com/news/area/lehighvalley/69-news-meteorologist-discusses-european-weather-model-forecasting-december-snow-in-lehigh-valley-that-took/article_7af2db2c-8263-11ee-bfee-7b74ff14fc43.html

What I got from it was channel 69 said its not to be believed and anything outside of 10 days should be ignored. 

[Bubbler86]

39 this Am.  Covered the plants for nothing last night.    Did get down to 33 earlier.  Check out MDT.  From 32 to 49 this AM. The HRRR has MDT as 37 right now.  

 

[mitchnick]

38 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

39 this Am.  Covered the plants for nothing last night.    Did get down to 33 earlier.  Check out MDT.  From 32 to 49 this AM. The HRRR has MDT as 37 right now.  

 

Cold front came thru and mixed down the inversion. Tonight is cold again...mid 20's.

[mahantango#1]

48 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

39 this Am.  Covered the plants for nothing last night.    Did get down to 33 earlier.  Check out MDT.  From 32 to 49 this AM. The HRRR has MDT as 37 right now.  

 

My temp went from 26.8 @315 to 44.2 @404 what a jump in a short amount of time!

[ChescoWx]

We are running at over 1 degree chillier than normal so far here in November and a colder than normal pattern looks increasingly likely to continue for most of the rest of November. After starting 2023 with 4 straight above normal months - this will mark 4 of the last 7 months to feature below normal temperatures across our area. Today will turn increasingly windy by late this morning and temps will struggle to escape the 40's across the higher spots in the county. A very brief warming trend for both Thursday and Friday before the cold air returns on Friday night. We really need some rain...unfortunately while there is a chance of some rain by Friday night I am not optimistic.

Records for today: High 74 (1955) / Low 14 (1920) / Rain 1.58" (1972) / Snow 5.0" (1908)

[ChescoWx]

It looks like they actually picked up my Chester County Weather Page Facebook post and a couple ski areas along with Channel 69 referenced my post in this video!. The folks that shared my page drove my weather site to pick up over 1700 new followers since the Saturday post. I am approaching 6k followers. Sadly many seem to not understand the differences between model guidance and a forecast. My constant tagline on the site is "we don't shovel or plow model snow!: but folks don't listen! 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

39 this Am.  Covered the plants for nothing last night.    Did get down to 33 earlier.  Check out MDT.  From 32 to 49 this AM. The HRRR has MDT as 37 right now.  

 

The stations around me all bottomed out around 3am and then the winds picked up and mixed-out the inversion.  My low was 35 but it was 41 when I left the house at 6:20am.  My high yesterday was 55.  MDT is now almost exactly spot-on for its average monthly temp.  Onward.

[pawatch]

12 hours ago, mitchnick said:

GEFS seeing the potential now too.

 I like snow as much as the rest of us. But boy,I’m smoking 8-12 turkeys for Thanksgiving 

edit: disregard the week after I see.

 

Currently 45 degrees with some wind.

[Bubbler86]

38 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

The stations around me all bottomed out around 3am and then the winds picked up and mixed-out the inversion.  My low was 35 but it was 41 when I left the house at 6:20am.  My high yesterday was 55.  MDT is now almost exactly spot-on for its average monthly temp.  Onward.

With the end of the week heater on tap we may be going into the last full week of Nov slightly AN...though not sure I trust MDT to have the same level of heat as the rest of us. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Like others, I had a huge temp spike between 3am and 4am - my temp went from 29.7 up to 44.6 in less than 30 minutes. 

[TimB]

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

It looks like they actually picked up my Chester County Weather Page Facebook post and a couple ski areas along with Channel 69 referenced my post in this video!. The folks that shared my page drove my weather site to pick up over 1700 new followers since the Saturday post. I am approaching 6k followers. Sadly many seem to not understand the differences between model guidance and a forecast. My constant tagline on the site is "we don't shovel or plow model snow!: but folks don't listen! 

Thanks for the heads up. I’ll be letting 69 News know you’re a hack with an improperly sited weather station splicing weather records back to 1894 into your own.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, pawatch said:

 I like snow as much as the rest of us. But boy,I’m smoking 8-12 turkeys for Thanksgiving 

edit: disregard the week after I see.

 

Currently 45 degrees with some wind.

I'm smoking 1 this weekend before any potential early winter shenanigan's occur, so bring it....

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, TimB said:

Thanks for the heads up. I’ll be letting 69 News know you’re a hack with an improperly sited weather station splicing weather records back to 1894 into your own.

why are you even here??

You offer little but troll lots....

[sauss06]

Just now, pasnownut said:

I'm smoking 1 this weekend before any potential early winter shenanigan's occur, so bring it....

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Stillers are the worst 6-3 team in the history of professional sports. The Packers had 5 plays of 35+ yards on Sunday - 4 of them came on 3rd and long. The 5th was in the final minute with Jordan Love throwing essentially a hail mary to avoid a sack...except for the fact that the hail mary was to go a guy who had no one within the city limits covering him. 

How this team keeps winning is beyond me. Well, they don't turn the ball over. That's one thing. And they can run it some now. Other than that...yeesh. 

This past weekend was the best weather day that we've ever had. Low 50s and full sun in November. It was a glorious fall football Sunday in Pittsburgh. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Stillers are the worst 6-3 team in the history of professional sports. The Packers had 5 plays of 35+ yards on Sunday - 4 of them came on 3rd and long. The 5th was in the final minute with Jordan Love throwing essentially a hail mary to avoid a sack...except for the fact that the hail mary was to go a guy who had no one within the city limits covering him. 

How this team keeps winning is beyond me. Well, they don't turn the ball over. That's one thing. And they can run it some now. Other than that...yeesh. 

This past weekend was the best weather day that we've ever had. Low 50s and full sun in November. It was a glorious fall football Sunday in Pittsburgh. 

Two headed running attack! 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Two headed running attack! 

Yes, and they compliment each other very well. Nice to see both getting equal or near equal touches. This team needs to run it well to have any chance of winning. 

I would load the box and force Pickett to beat them. 

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Stillers are the worst 6-3 team in the history of professional sports. The Packers had 5 plays of 35+ yards on Sunday - 4 of them came on 3rd and long. The 5th was in the final minute with Jordan Love throwing essentially a hail mary to avoid a sack...except for the fact that the hail mary was to go a guy who had no one within the city limits covering him. 

How this team keeps winning is beyond me. Well, they don't turn the ball over. That's one thing. And they can run it some now. Other than that...yeesh. 

This past weekend was the best weather day that we've ever had. Low 50s and full sun in November. It was a glorious fall football Sunday in Pittsburgh. 

My wife went to Pitt for grad school in 2011-2012. I went to see her in the Burgh every weekend. If it's one thing I've learned, it's that Steelers fans are never happy with their teams record. Even if they win the Super Bowl, it probably wasn't a "good win".

[mitchnick]

Oz Gefs lost the storm potential, but 6z brought it back fwiw.

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Oz Gefs lost the storm potential, but 6z brought it back fwiw.

GFS op at 6z showed multiple opps for some early fluffy stuff.  3 distinct chances w/ LES to follow most.  Were it mid winter, many would be pretty happy w/ what it shows.  Boiled down to reality, it still looks like early winter is trying to make its presence known for a period.  

 

[Itstrainingtime]

37 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

My wife went to Pitt for grad school in 2011-2012. I went to see her in the Burgh every weekend. If it's one thing I've learned, it's that Steelers fans are never happy with their teams record. Even if they win the Super Bowl, it probably wasn't a "good win".

I think that's probably a true assessment about most diehard fan bases. Our oldest son is an Eagles fan and is constantly telling me how the fans are ripping the team on social media for not winning in an "acceptable" manner. As far as Pittsburgh specifically...In fairness...I think most football fans outside of Steelers Nation would say that this edition of the Steelers isn't very good. They've been out-gained in every single game this season. And yet, they're 6-3. 

As someone who spent a lot of time in Lanco in the past, what are your thoughts for our area this winter? 

[ChescoWx]

12 hours ago, Albedoman said:

Channel 69 news ran with this BS tonight. Boy the weenies are coming to the surface now.

 

https://www.wfmz.com/news/area/lehighvalley/69-news-meteorologist-discusses-european-weather-model-forecasting-december-snow-in-lehigh-valley-that-took/article_7af2db2c-8263-11ee-bfee-7b74ff14fc43.html

 

1 hour ago, TimB said:

Thanks for the heads up. I’ll be letting 69 News know you’re a hack with an improperly sited weather station splicing weather records back to 1894 into your own.

Thanks Tim!! I am sure they will appreciate that!! It's a shame folks just can't read my disclaimers....LOL!!

[sauss06]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Stillers are the worst 6-3 team in the history of professional sports. The Packers had 5 plays of 35+ yards on Sunday - 4 of them came on 3rd and long. The 5th was in the final minute with Jordan Love throwing essentially a hail mary to avoid a sack...except for the fact that the hail mary was to go a guy who had no one within the city limits covering him. 

How this team keeps winning is beyond me. Well, they don't turn the ball over. That's one thing. And they can run it some now. Other than that...yeesh. 

This past weekend was the best weather day that we've ever had. Low 50s and full sun in November. It was a glorious fall football Sunday in Pittsburgh. 

 

It really is unbelievable. they find ways to win and somehow stay relevant for maybe a post season run. ( i chuckled when i typed that) 

I was thinking of you Sunday while watching the game, i'm sure you had a good time on your annual visit.

 

[Bubbler86]

50 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

My wife went to Pitt for grad school in 2011-2012. I went to see her in the Burgh every weekend. If it's one thing I've learned, it's that Steelers fans are never happy with their teams record. Even if they win the Super Bowl, it probably wasn't a "good win".

 

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I think that's probably a true assessment about most diehard fan bases. Our oldest son is an Eagles fan and is constantly telling me how the fans are ripping the team on social media for not winning in an "acceptable" manner. As far as Pittsburgh specifically...In fairness...I think most football fans outside of Steelers Nation would say that this edition of the Steelers isn't very good. They've been out-gained in every single game this season. And yet, they're 6-3. 

As someone who spent a lot of time in Lanco in the past, what are your thoughts for our area this winter? 

I think a lot of it is the psychological beating people take if they think they are going to win and do not.... many people turtle up and say bad things so if it turns out bad, it is easier to swallow.  Not in your case though, you are more than fair on both sides of the pendulum. 

[Eskimo Joe]

10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I think that's probably a true assessment about most diehard fan bases. Our oldest son is an Eagles fan and is constantly telling me how the fans are ripping the team on social media for not winning in an "acceptable" manner. As far as Pittsburgh specifically...In fairness...I think most football fans outside of Steelers Nation would say that this edition of the Steelers isn't very good. They've been out-gained in every single game this season. And yet, they're 6-3. 

As someone who spent a lot of time in Lanco in the past, what are your thoughts for our area this winter? 

It was funny the day after games. She lived in Shady Side off 5th avenue and there was a grocery store near her apartment. There was this group of retired guys that would drink coffee and eat donuts out front of the store every Monday and complain about how it "wasn't a good victory" and dissect the game play by play. I thought that was a one off, but that scene repeated itself all over the city. Random people just arguing over the quality of winds. I've never seen that anywhere else in any other fan base! 

As for this winter, I think S Central PA hits climo snow. Probably nothing to write home about for this winter, I truly hope I'm wrong. I've become increasingly pessimistic about "good winters" where the season isn't a torch and snow cover lasts more than 20 minutes.