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Central PA Autumn 2023


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These first 5 days of October have been the 21st warmest start to the month since 1894. See top 20 below. However, a sharp change to below normal begins tomorrow. In fact today looks to be the last day that reaches 70 degrees for at least a couple weeks and possibly until next spring, Temps by Sunday and Monday will remain in the unseasonably chilly 50's by day and low 40's at night.
Some showers can be around today with steadier rain overnight tonight with the cold frontal passage.
Records for today: High 94 (1900) / Low 28 (1965) / Rain 2.00" (1932)
First 5 days of October
Rank Year Avg. Temp
1 1898 73.1
2 1941 73.1
3 1954 71.9
4 1959 70.3
5 2002 70.2
6 1951 70.0
7 1927 69.3
8 1900 69.0
9 1926 68.8
10 1986 68.6
11 2013 68.31
12 1922 68.2
13 1919 67.4
14 1931 67.1
15 2018 66.96
16 1905 66.6
17 1910 66.6
18 2007 66.6
19 1932 66.1
20 1991 66.1
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1 minute ago, ChescoWx said:
These first 5 days of October have been the 21st warmest start to the month since 1894. See top 20 below. However, a sharp change to below normal begins tomorrow. In fact today looks to be the last day that reaches 70 degrees for at least a couple weeks and possibly until next spring, Temps by Sunday and Monday will remain in the unseasonably chilly 50's by day and low 40's at night.
Some showers can be around today with steadier rain overnight tonight with the cold frontal passage.
Records for today: High 94 (1900) / Low 28 (1965) / Rain 2.00" (1932)
First 5 days of October
Rank Year Avg. Temp
1 1898 73.1
2 1941 73.1
3 1954 71.9
4 1959 70.3
5 2002 70.2
6 1951 70.0
7 1927 69.3
8 1900 69.0
9 1926 68.8
10 1986 68.6
11 2013 68.31
12 1922 68.2
13 1919 67.4
14 1931 67.1
15 2018 66.96
16 1905 66.6
17 1910 66.6
18 2007 66.6
19 1932 66.1
20 1991 66.1

While I  agree that the next couple weeks (sorry Bubbler :P) may not reach 70, I have little doubt that we will see 70 before spring as Niños are famous for impressive warm-ups, especially strong ones.

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12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

While I  agree that the next couple weeks (sorry Bubbler :P) may not reach 70, I have little doubt that we will see 70 before spring as Niños are famous for impressive warm-ups, especially strong ones.

I actually think we (meaning MDT) get to 70 2-3 times next week.  :-) All predicated on that storm.  We get a raging SW wind the warm air is there to transport.      If that storms flattens out or goes below us then my predict is toast. 

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11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I actually think we (meaning MDT) get to 70 2-3 times next week.  :-) All predicated on that storm.  We get a raging SW wind the warm air is there to transport.      If that storms flattens out or goes below us then my predict is toast. 

I agree, it'll be close. To be honest, I'm not familiar with MDT climo. But I  was thinking more our back yards. So I could see MDT with its lower elevation and sitting in an urban environment hitting 70 and us staying in the upper 60's. 

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22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

While I  agree that the next couple weeks (sorry Bubbler :P) may not reach 70, I have little doubt that we will see 70 before spring as Niños are famous for impressive warm-ups, especially strong ones.

Yep, It'd be quite a bold prediction to think that more Indian Summer is not on the way.  Ens guidance beyond 240 starts to diverge some as we get twds end of run (not putting a ton of faith in that - just an obs).  Havent looked much deeper to see how the other indicies are lining up.  

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27 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I agree, it'll be close. To be honest, I'm not familiar with MDT climo. But I  was thinking more our back yards. So I could see MDT with its lower elevation and sitting in an urban environment hitting 70 and us staying in the upper 60's. 

Oh cool, we can do our places too.  I just always say MDT because that removes the question of local temps especially if any kind of contest, etc....

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48 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

@canderson I just saw video of fried bubblegum at the Texas State Fair. I'm assuming you've been, so what is your weird favorite fried thing?

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

The fried pop rock Twinkie is always good. 

But a Fletchers corn dog and beer out of the wax cup is the fair legend. God I miss it. 

Also f*ck ou. If anyone goes to a fast food place today, make sure to tell the worker who undoubtedly is from Oklahoma to hook 'em. 

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The fried pop rock Twinkie is always good. 
But a Fletchers corn dog and beer out of the wax cup is the fair legend. God I miss it. 
Also f*ck ou. If anyone goes to a fast food place today, make sure to tell the worker who undoubtedly is from Oklahoma to hook 'em. 
That's the hate that binds America. Love it!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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From uncle w based on those warm early Octobers....

some great years on that list...

1898...big snows end of November...historic snow and cold in February...weak neg year...(February 1899 largest 3 day snowstorm in Chester County History 53" ending Feb 14th)

1959...almost -6SD AO in November...White Christmas storm...March Blizzard...neutral...

2002...Christmas day snowstorm...cold and snowy February...el nino...

2013...cold, snowy winter...weak neg...

1922...cold snowy winter...la nina...

1919...cold snowy winter...huge snow and ice storm in February...weak pos year...

1932...snowstorms in December and February...weak pos year.....

other years...el nino...snowfall...

1941...11.3"...cold Jan/Feb...inland late March and April snows...

1951...20"...good March...

1986...23"...better south of the city...

2018...21"...Nov snowstorm...good March...

1905...20"...good March...

1991...13"...good March...

these el nino winters with a good March were not great winters...except for 86 most of the action came late in the season...

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In dedication to fall here is a rift on a New York Sour I created
2 oz Rye
1 oz Pear brandy
1/2 oz fresh lemon juice
1/2 homemade simple syrup
1/2 egg whites
4 dashes walnut bitters
Airated and whip shaken over ice with 1 oz of Cabernet layed on top followed by more foam from shaker.

Dried lemon and cinnamon stick are doused with lemon juice, rolled in brown sugar and fired with torch lighter to brown them
20231006_111248.jpg

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

While I  agree that the next couple weeks (sorry Bubbler :P) may not reach 70, I have little doubt that we will see 70 before spring as Niños are famous for impressive warm-ups, especially strong ones.

I have confidence in Chesco’s ability to cook the books so October 5 ends up being his last 70 degree day until spring. He’ll just put the weather station in his refrigerator as soon as it gets to 69.7 or so.

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