Central PA Autumn 2023

[TheDreamTraveler]

Since we're talking about climate change and its effects I'd like to present to you all some very interesting information that recently came out. Apparently all the insane warming we've been experiencing might not be solely caused by humans but rather by massive influxes of methane coming from the tropics since 2006. Humans are still contributing to the warming and the paper that presents this information even said we don't fully know if this methane issue is the main cause due to the fact we still don't understand why this process is happening. I'm also bad at explaining things so I'll post some information you can all read. It's interesting. Just please don't take this as full proof that humans aren't the main cause. We still don't fully understand everything that is happening. This would help explain why warming has gone off the rails compared to pre-2000 levels

 

https://www.space.com/climate-change-termination-event-end-ice-age

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

On our way to Chicago. I had a couple of hundredths of rain overnight. Still drizzling as we drive. Hold it down fellas. #RoadTrip

[mitchnick]

5 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Since we're talking about climate change and its effects I'd like to present to you all some very interesting information that recently came out. Apparently all the insane warming we've been experiencing might not be solely caused by humans but rather by massive influxes of methane coming from the tropics since 2006. Humans are still contributing to the warming and the paper that presents this information even said we don't fully know if this methane issue is the main cause due to the fact we still don't understand why this process is happening. I'm also bad at explaining things so I'll post some information you can all read. It's interesting. Just please don't take this as full proof that humans aren't the main cause. We still don't fully understand everything that is happening. This would help explain why warming has gone off the rails compared to pre-2000 levels

 

https://www.space.com/climate-change-termination-event-end-ice-age

 

Here's an example of the problem with these publications.  You don't know if you're getting the FULL story. Like I said, everybody in journalism has an agenda and "scientists" are on the take too. Not all of them, but nobody knows who is and who isn't. And you don't have to read the entire article, just what the Hopkins earth and climate scientist said to get the point.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/california-scientist-left-out-full-truth-climate-change-wildfire-study-published

[mitchnick]

26 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

On our way to Chicago. I had a couple of hundredths of rain overnight. Still drizzling as we drive. Hold it down fellas. #RoadTrip

Have a safe drive.

[Bubbler86]

59 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Have a safe drive.

Good way to end the post catchup reading that I missed from overnight...a non-combative post. 

[sauss06]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

On our way to Chicago. I had a couple of hundredths of rain overnight. Still drizzling as we drive. Hold it down fellas. #RoadTrip

safe travels.......enjoy

[mahantango#1]

2 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

On our way to Chicago. I had a couple of hundredths of rain overnight. Still drizzling as we drive. Hold it down fellas. #RoadTrip

Welcome tp Chicago!

[Itstrainingtime]

It seems like forever since we've had a damp, drizzly morning. Welcome back! 

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It seems like forever since we've had a damp, drizzly morning. Welcome back! 

Congrats on the O's well deserved. 

[pasnownut]

17 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I don't think half the country DGAF, rather they understand there iust isn't much they can do about it on an individual level and don't want to see us make massive sacrifices as a nation that may hurt us in various unforeseen ways while doing very little to stem the tide of global climate, particularly when many other nations do nothing.

I also don't think most see it as an existential threat that is going to take down all of humanity.  I mean, let's not forget we still live on a planet where far more people die every year of cold temps rather than warm ones, and the vast majority of flora and fauna thrive in warmer climates than cold ones.  Heck, we have already seen a significant greening of the planet in terms of expanded plant life.  Also, the threats are extremely slow moving.  It's not like rising sea levels are just going to wipe out entire civilizations.  No, people will just slowly move inland over time and adapt to the changing conditions, as they always have.  And that's IF the sea levels even get to that point of crisis, which I have my doubts about. 

Look, the planet is certainly warming but the climate is never static, and while it may be warming at a rate faster than we'd like, measures are being taken on a macro level to mitigate that, and again, much preferable to global cooling, which by the way all the experts were warning of just a few decades ago, a mere blip on the climatological scale.  Heck, I've had guys at work showing me their textbooks from the 70s and 80s where entire chapters were devoted to global cooling and the impending mini ice age and the measures that could be taken to get the Earth to absorb more sunlight, like laying certain materials across huge swaths of the Arctic to prevent solar reflection.  Think about that haha.

I am fine with moving towards some alternative and renewable forms of energy because it's just better regardless of climate effects and we know certain fuels are in finite supply on this planet, but I absolutely see no need to panic about any of it.  As has been said before, the same people who can't tell you what the weather will do in a week want you to believe with 100% certainty what the climate will do in 100 years.  A little bit of humility could go a long way for these folks.  And hey, if it means a few more people moving back north or less people fleeing to deserts like Arizona and Nevada, well, I think we can all agree that's a good thing haha.  Man.  Will.  Adapt.  I digress.

So well stated pal.

VERY well done....

[pasnownut]

17 hours ago, Anduril said:

Yea, the whole cooling thing from the 70's was a bit media hyped https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/06/that-70s-myth-did-climate-science-really-call-for-a-coming-ice-age/

Just like they whole warming thing might be a bit media hyped??

Hmmm

 

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It seems like forever since we've had a damp, drizzly morning. Welcome back! 

It is our rain allotment for the next week. 

[Anduril]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Just like they whole warming thing might be a bit media hyped??

Hmmm

 

I really did not expect so many global warming science deniers on here. Impressive

[sauss06]

11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It seems like forever since we've had a damp, drizzly morning. Welcome back! 

our grass is laughing at us. 

[ChescoWx]

12 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

After reading all of this great discussion today, I realized that I’m still waiting on the Climate Change poster to provide stats on PA temps from 1350 AD & 350 BC just so we can compare…

My guess is that he can’t find these numbers? Was it a warm or cold period? What were the ocean temperatures?

i suppose that I should just accept that history just started 100 years ago or when the satellite era began!

This is of course the problem. We have no validated past history and the model predictions are just that predictions. This is of course simple cyclical climate change. That said I am all about doing good things for the old planet earth! However seems a bit pompous to me to believe little old humans can do anything to impact the climate.....well except to cause UHI contamination....

[ChescoWx]

11 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Is it embarrassing because my question makes too much sense?

Please…lol….

If you don't trust that science...They will brace yourself!!  Call you a science denier.....that hurts so bad I know but we must try and rise above this indignity!!

[ChescoWx]

We have picked up .05" of rain this AM we could see a few more showers today but most of the heavy rain will be to our east and north. Clouds linger tomorrow but the sun returns and finally some warmer weather by Sunday and this sunny above normal stretch should last till next weekend when we see temps slip back below normal averages for early October.

Records for today: High 93 (1921)/ Low 31 (1947) / Rain 1.84 (1924)

[Cobalt]

16 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Just like they whole warming thing might be a bit media hyped??

Hmmm

 

This is a silly comparison to make. Publications concerning the idea of "global cooling" were a fraction compared to the research that suggested warming, even in the 70s. The only "hype" about publications on global cooling comes from deniers who benefit from amplifying the idea of doubt or uncertainty. 

Even ExxonMobil produced research back in the 70s suggesting the Earth was warming, and their predictive skill on the matter was surprisingly accurate. Much better than that of deniers that have been suggesting for decades that the warming would halt.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2023/01/harvard-led-analysis-finds-exxonmobil-internal-research-accurately-predicted-climate-change/

 

[Itstrainingtime]

21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It is our rain allotment for the next week. 

Yeah...and it's not a very generous allotment at that. LOL

[Voyager]

Surprised at almost 3/4" of rain this morning in Tamaqua. Thought it would be much less...

[pasnownut]

16 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I will say nothing further on this issue beyond this post because I  doubt I  will come across as anything other than acidic. But i don't believe we can believe any article written by either side unless it has been peer reviewed and commented on by both sides of the issue. Everybody receiving a paycheck in journalism has an agenda and everbody else has an opinion they want to push. I  equate these kinds of articles as using a forecast to verify a future forecast period. 

One last thing. I'm in my 60's and was already a weenie in the 70's, and there WAS a lot of news on the issue of the climate going colder. In fact, I do remember seeing a Time cover story suggesting climate was turning colder.

I'm done. 

There's nothing acidic about stating ones beliefs in a weather forum full of weenies, and also there's not one person in here that holds absolute/empirical knowledge over the rest of us weenies.  This is a forum that has a multitude of beliefs, but for any view from one side, there is a counterpoint from the other. Nothing wrong with that whatsoever, and that's largely why some of us are here, as weather is an imperfect and still largtely unknown and evolving science.   

Are we warming...sure.  Are we responsible for SOME of it....sure.  Truth is that there are truths/mistruths being touted by BOTH sides of the warming isles, and politics/money has corrupted enough of what we see/hear to raise ones objective eyebrow...on either side.

Like you, I too am old enough to remember "the earth is gonna freeze" to "ocean fronts are gonna flood" stuff.  Like Mt. Joy so eloquently stated, the truth is there is enough variability in it to warrant concern as to how much we can do, as well as how much can we "afford" to do with so many other more pressing and controllable or avoidable challenges in front of us as a global society.

Great lakes were once part of the ocean, and we had 0% human involvement in that....and no money was spent trying to change it.  It happened.  I hope that point resonates w/ some of you. 

I guess my takeaway is that things change no matter how little or much we are a part of it, and based on what we know....we really still have a lot to learn about a planet that is 4.53 billion years old, and am truly wonder what we as a society can do in the next 50 yrs to "save" it from evolution. 

That's just ground truth.  

[pasnownut]

12 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The earth is around 4.5 billion years old, yet some are worried about warming temperatures over the last 50 years…

In the words of the great Pittsburgh poster…”LOL” !

Just reading this as I'm "catching up" after just typing my $.01 on climate change onsession.  I literally typed the same stuff.  Glad there is room on the boat named "about to be bashed" for the 2 of us.  

[TheClimateChanger]

19 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@TheClimateChanger - why exactly is the data sobering to you? Please help me understand, I'm not being critical. 

I guess we're all different. There are things in life that are sobering to me - losing my father tragically and instantly to a massive heart attack in 2015. Going through a very rough divorce in 1995. Watching innocent people die in random acts of violence. Those events I find very sobering. 

I just want to understand why warmer nights are so difficult for you. Truly. 

Well, maybe sobering was too dramatic of a word. Certainly, the warmer minima are a blessing for farmers completing their fall harvests. With that said, it does raise important questions about the speed and extent of the environmental changes occurring since the plant and animal life in a region may have evolved in a manner that depends on frosts or freezes occurring by a certain date, or temperatures reaching a certain level of coldness over the winter [i.e., potentially to kill off parasites, which may harbor disease].

Although just outside this subforum, if we look at Hagerstown, Maryland, we see sub-40F lows in the month of September are now rarer than subfreezing lows were historically. That's a significant change. Since 2000, only year has had a low temperature less than 40F (2020, when it dropped to 38F). Conversely, 19 historical Septembers had lows at or below freezing. However, this has not occurred since 1974. Whereas in the 2010s, three separate years had absolute minima in the 50s, in the 1940s, three separate years saw minima in the 20s.

Warmest absolute monthly minima

Coldest absolute monthly minima [showing all years at or below the freezing mark]

Like central Pennsylvania, many past years had mean monthly minima less than the coldest temperatures observed in recent years. In fact, if we look at 2018's absolute low of 54F at Hagerstown, fully 52 years had mean minima less than or equal to this value in the month of September. And allowing for rounding, fully 57 years had mean mimima less than 54.5F.

[pasnownut]

48 minutes ago, Anduril said:

I really did not expect so many global warming science deniers on here. Impressive

"deniers" is really just a term one side uses to demean the other.  It's really no more than that.

Some just look at it through an objective lens.  BIG difference

[mitchnick]

Man I  wish we could just lose the climate  change discussions. There's a forum for it, and this one ain't it. But 1 prediction I'll make on the subject is that no opinions will change with further discussions. 

[sauss06]

everyone needs something to believe in. I believe i'll have another beer. Cheers to the weekend fellas. 

[pasnownut]

35 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

This is a silly comparison to make. Publications concerning the idea of "global cooling" were a fraction compared to the research that suggested warming, even in the 70s. The only "hype" about publications on global cooling comes from deniers who benefit from amplifying the idea of doubt or uncertainty. 

Even ExxonMobil produced research back in the 70s suggesting the Earth was warming, and their predictive skill on the matter was surprisingly accurate. Much better than that of deniers that have been suggesting for decades that the warming would halt.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2023/01/harvard-led-analysis-finds-exxonmobil-internal-research-accurately-predicted-climate-change/

 

Who here questions the warming?  I'm waiting.....

The question is the cause/effects that are being touted as gospel.  As i said, for every point, there is a counterpoint, and in 5 seconds of a web search, one could refute many claims. We can do this all day, and really get nothing done...except further the divide.  I've no interest in that. I will remain objective as we really have much to learn.  

I'm not here to argue and wont bash you/anyone for their beliefs...no matter what, but I'd suggest some of you offer the same mutual respect to something we really are still learning about.  

We've got a lot of learning to. 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

everyone needs something to believe in. I believe i'll have another beer. Cheers to the weekend fellas. 

AMEN.....

Did I just lump myself into another camp by saying that?? 

 

cheers bro.

any pics of the new ink, or is it in places NSFW?  hehe

[Itstrainingtime]

29 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Well, maybe sobering was too dramatic of a word. Certainly, the warmer minima are a blessing for farmers completing their fall harvests. With that said, it does raise important questions about the speed and extent of the environmental changes occurring since the plant and animal life in a region may have evolved in a manner that depends on frosts or freezes occurring by a certain date, or temperatures reaching a certain level of coldness over the winter [i.e., potentially to kill off parasites, which may harbor disease].

Although just outside this subforum, if we look at Hagerstown, Maryland, we see sub-40F lows in the month of September are now rarer than subfreezing lows were historically. That's a significant change. Since 2000, only year has had a low temperature less than 40F (2020, when it dropped to 38F). Conversely, 19 historical Septembers had lows at or below freezing. However, this has not occurred since 1974. Whereas in the 2010s, three separate years had absolute minima in the 50s, in the 1940s, three separate years saw minima in the 20s.

Warmest absolute monthly minima

Coldest absolute monthly minima [showing all years at or below the freezing mark]

Like central Pennsylvania, many past years had mean monthly minima less than the coldest temperatures observed in recent years. In fact, if we look at 2018's absolute low of 54F at Hagerstown, fully 52 years had mean minima less than or equal to this value in the month of September. And allowing for rounding, fully 57 years had mean mimima less than 54.5F.

Thank you for taking the time to respond to me. I sincerely appreciate it.

I have a lot of learning yet to do. 

[sauss06]

13 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

AMEN.....

Did I just lump myself into another camp by saying that?? 

 

cheers bro.

any pics of the new ink, or is it in places NSFW?  hehe

It says file is to large to upload. i'm not tech enough to figure it out