paweather Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 If this was a snowstorm outlook I would be on the edge of my seat right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 I expect there to be alot of spectators and participants with video cameras . I doubt I will be alone. It always smells of fish and seaweed every time I go down. It's hard to compete with all the guys and there big scooters. I wounder how they handle in such sloppy conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 GFS cut back on totalsI still see 2 inches next 72 hours in Harrisburg Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 9 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I still see 2 inches next 72 hours in Harrisburg Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk That’s what she…. oh never mind 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 3 hours ago, sauss06 said: I'm out fellas. Heading for some new ink. If i don't get a chance to check in later............enjoy the beach, the whiteout game, the mountain walks, and a hot hairy date in inner harbor New ink? I'm contemplating that myself. I want to cover up a 30 year old dragon and skull with a half sleeve. Not sure what to get, and am definitely concerned about cost... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 hour ago, paweather said: If this was a snowstorm outlook I would be hugging any model that showed heavy snow over Palmyra right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 @canderson NHC saying "so there's a chance" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Just got my mow in before the fun starts. Grass must be loving these cool temps, was surprised by how thick it was in spots. I'm sure it will be even more of a hack job when I mow next Friday. I'm gonna do some patch work and throw some seed down as well. Bring on the rains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: @Bubbler86 - it looks quite windy down there already. Also seeing some sand on the boardwalk this morning. It is like a sand blasting machine. Winds out of the NE. It took my beer and threw it in the ocean (cup). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 59 minutes ago, Voyager said: New ink? I'm contemplating that myself. I want to cover up a 30 year old dragon and skull with a half sleeve. Not sure what to get, and am definitely concerned about cost... A depiction of the Tamaqua split, of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 I just finished up my freshest ink, myself. I did both my legs in solid khaki and am calling them pants. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 "Nice pants, AtomixWx, but I'm confused about the crotchal region. Where did the elephant's eyes go, and what happened to make his upper lip fat on both sides?" Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 3 hours ago, paweather said: Nice Catch! Snow map anyone? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Snow map anyone?In memory of the soup nazi who gets to be the snow nazi this year!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 18 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Snow map anyone? On its way Blizz. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: That sounds about right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 This is going to make landfall stronger than anticipated Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Long long duration event. Seems like nothing to crazy heavy, just 48-60 hours straight of light to moderate rainSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 3 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said: I expect there to be alot of spectators and participants with video cameras . I doubt I will be alone. It always smells of fish and seaweed every time I go down. It's hard to compete with all the guys and there big scooters. I wounder how they handle in such sloppy conditions. But how's it smell at the Inner Harbor? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 29 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: This is going to make landfall stronger than anticipated Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Every US landfalling storm since iirc 2018 has done this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Every US landfalling storm since iirc 2018 has done this. BoomHurricane watch as of 5pm for NCWinds up to 70mph. Still has at least 12 - 18 hours over warm waterSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 It keeps coming further north and west. I'm with @canderson buying wind being greater than forcast. Not sure up towards Harrisburg but definitely for southern Lancaster and York countySent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 So current pressure is 986mb and dropping. Looking at mesos and model they all almost initiate and don't drop below 995mb. The NAM drops down to 989mb 8 hours from now. So what happens if this thing makes landfall in the upper 970's or low 980's, which now seems very very likely. That's a 15mb+ difference between ground truth vs models. It seems the the models with stronger LP drove in further west and were slower a day or two ago. Not sure if that still is the same. Regardless. These models are initiationing with pressure significantly higher than reality. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 First picture is the 18z hurricane model tracks2nd is a multi model mean (EPS + GEFS + UKMET + CMC). Yellow is 9/21 @0ZRed is 9/21 @12ZPurple is 9/22 @0ZBlack is NWS forcast trackSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: First picture is the 18z hurricane model tracks 2nd is a multi model mean (EPS + GEFS + UKMET + CMC). Yellow is 9/21 @0Z Red is 9/21 @12Z Purple is 9/22 @0Z Black is NWS forcast track Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I thought the gfs was suggesting Ophelia comes back next weekend....In relation to this plot showing it diving south. Just came back in....the sea is angry my friends. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: But how's it smell at the Inner Harbor? You did notice that his entire post was loaded with innuendos though, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 18 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: So current pressure is 986mb and dropping. Looking at mesos and model they all almost initiate and don't drop below 995mb. The NAM drops down to 989mb 8 hours from now. So what happens if this thing makes landfall in the upper 970's or low 980's, which now seems very very likely. That's a 15mb+ difference between ground truth vs models. It seems the the models with stronger LP drove in further west and were slower a day or two ago. Not sure if that still is the same. Regardless. These models are initiationing with pressure significantly higher than reality. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk For what it's worth, DT did mention the possibility of her crossing the hurricane threshold immediately prior to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Getting angry now. https://www.surfchex.com/cams/nags-head-web-cam/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 On my way to Baltimore now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: But how's it smell at the Inner Harbor? Good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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