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Central PA Autumn 2023


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6 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

That's basically exactly what the ensembles show. What I wonder about is how much is this event a binary choice versus a gradiant choice. What's the blend?

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For my money, the ensemble precip maps are risky to use.  Low location ok, but precip maps are influenced by western outliers.   The low location is as well but its only one spot vs. the outlier precip bands which may not be realistic.  Just need the Euro to reverse course and become the Western model to get a real effect of winter model watching this week. 

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For my money, the ensemble precip maps are risky to use.  Low location ok, but precip maps are influenced by western outliers.  Just need the Euro to reverse course and become the Western model to get a real effect of winter model watching this week. 
I've also been burned bad many many times this summer from both models and the WPC so I have little faith until Friday. Especially with how these systems are notorious for being badly handled by models, and extra especially because it's just now forming.

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