Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Now this is an overreaction if I've ever seen one. Lee is in the latter stages of an ERC, and though the inner eyewall is fighting back it will be toast in the long run. I expect thst by tomorrow Lee will clear a big, beautiful eye.

lol well I did edit after I posted it so ya I said I was just checking in for First time . If it’s a 70 mile eye clearing out , great . Let’s get a plane in there .

[Sn0waddict]

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's actually west

Is it? Idk 18z had a few into SNE which are no longer there on 0z.  Most are in the NS area now.

[WxWatcher007]

The ERC looks done, and while it’s likely capping intensity, as expected we’re seeing a significant expansion of the wind field. This is before the turn north, and before ET transition. 

 

[Torch Tiger]

Hopefully Lee weakens and is safely OTS

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I seem to recall reading once years ago how the 2 weeks before 1938 was described as ‘unusually wet and sultry’

Now granted, sultry is rarher outmoded as a word usage in present culture … But I believe having so many persistent dewpoint days over 70° with daily run-ins with flood warnings and stuff qualifies as similar to that same turn the phrase

Except 38 came abreast of NC... but if you are looking for SNE hurricane action it almost has to have a deep-layered tropical flow precede it...  it's just so hard to get a hurricane tracking north from east of 70w to bend back into New England.  I would never say impossible, but it's tough enough to get a good hit when a storm comes abreast of NC, nevermind just east of 70w.  I haven't had the time to fully research it, but if anyone has map of a similar track that hit SNE, I'd love to see it...

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Except 38 came abreast of NC... but if you are looking for SNE hurricane action it almost has to have a deep-layered tropical flow precede it...  it's just so hard to get a hurricane tracking north from east of 70w to bend back into New England.  I would never say impossible, but it's tough enough to get a good hit when a storm comes abreast of NC, nevermind just east of 70w.  I haven't had the time to fully research it, but if anyone has map of a similar track that hit SNE, I'd love to see it...

Can't rule out that peculiar storm that kinda "backs in" , or is bonked by a H P, or dual HP  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Can't rule out that peculiar storm that kinda "backs in" , or is bonked by a H P, or dual HP  

The full left turn by Sandy was impressive but modeled and is an example of all the pieces coming together with the right timing.

[Torch Tiger]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The full left turn by Sandy was impressive but modeled and is an example of all the pieces coming together with the right timing.

That was nearly a month later, we're stuck in summer doldrums for now

[WxWatcher007]

Still finishing ERC per NHC @STILL N OF PIKE

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I expect to wake up to a “ significant “ west trend on most guidance tonight. Based off of EPS, cane models and the trogh dig, ridge strengthening and storm slowing that the globals only now .. and slowly at that.. will begin to pick up on. 

You must be creaming in your pants....lol

[FXWX]

21 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Can't rule out that peculiar storm that kinda "backs in" , or is bonked by a H P, or dual HP  

Not ruling anything out, but just looking for a hint of historical support... always room fota first time?

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Not ruling anything out, but just looking for a hint of historical support... always room fota first time?

For SNE?

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

6 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Not ruling anything out, but just looking for a hint of historical support... always room fota first time?

What about the 1896 San Ramon hurricane in August/Sept? Surprised nobody has mentioned that one. Took a Sandy-esq turn into SE Mass. Also interestingly, it was the same year of the last major hurricane in the Big Bend region before Idalia.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Not sure If this was posted but it’s a great tweet

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

24 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Still finishing ERC per NHC @STILL N OF PIKE

How many hours has it been since that began 

[bristolri_wx]

30 minutes ago, WJX231 said:

What about the 1896 San Ramon hurricane in August/Sept? Surprised nobody has mentioned that one. Took a Sandy-esq turn into SE Mass. Also interestingly, it was the same year of the last major hurricane in the Big Bend region before Idalia.

Excellent point.  Here's more info about that storm.  Similar track though it looks like it got much farther west than Lee will.

[WxWatcher007]

23 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

How many hours has it been since that began 

Not sure. Been a long time though. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

My guess is 0z comes west looking at hr 72 

that was based on second trough looking clearly deeper Which should cause more ridging ahead , only thing is first trough is about 3 hrs slower to head out 

[bristolri_wx]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

My guess is 0z comes west looking at hr 72 

Already turning NE by 75/78...

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Already turning NE by 75/78...

Ya the second trough Is def better but Lee seems to have sped up on its time (when it passes Bermuda latitude) so if it wasn’t for second trough this would have been further East . The faster latitude gain after the north turn really evened out the one positive i saw earlier in run .
 

looks a tad west of 18z still 

[WxWatcher007]

It’s still west and slightly stronger than 18z. Center well offshore though. Bad track for coastal NS. 

[bristolri_wx]

Lee really wants to interact with that Canadian shortwave and phase with it at 500mb.  If that shortwave slows down then Lee will move towards it.  Right now it goes right by into SE Canada and Lee follows it N/NNE.

Not certain by any means, but the trend all day on the GFS has been slightly east each run.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

 

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s still west and slightly stronger than 18z. Center well offshore though. Bad track for coastal NS. 

Ya . Based on the Tomer tweet from earlier that I linked you could see early on that Manitoba shortwave was coming in amped (which was a factor that could enhance the ridging behind the first trough . If that stout shortwave can be a consistent feature there may remain a chance But then we would likely need a slower storm motion North to see it get a real close call 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

 

Ya . Based on the Tomer tweet from earlier that I linked you could see early on that Manitoba shortwave was coming in amped (which was a factor that could enhance the ridging behind the first trough . If that stout shortwave can be a consistent feature there may remain a chance But then we would likely need a slower storm motion North to see it get a real close call 

Will be interesting to see if the Caribou balloon launches lead to changes in guidance in the next 24-48. 

As for track speed, I guess we’re watching recon as this turns. Any slower or faster would have ramifications. This is going to keep shifting the next few days.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I’m mostly still watching this to see low position for Saturday and if this slows and tickles NW in SNE swell window 

I would put the odds of any cape cod landfall at. Maybe 10% and Maine maybe 15% 

it’s ticked faster And East in last day and and the further north the low gets before it sort of stalls / ticks NW is not ideal for a monster E /ESE swell I was hoping for @Hampton Saturday . It will still be very big but not magical lol

[George001]

50 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’m mostly still watching this to see low position for Saturday and if this slows and tickles NW in SNE swell window 

I would put the odds of any cape cod landfall at. Maybe 10% and Maine maybe 15% 

it’s ticked faster And East in last day and and the further north the low gets before it sort of stalls / ticks NW is not ideal for a monster E /ESE swell I was hoping for @Hampton Saturday . It will still be very big but not magical lol

Yeah still worth watching but looking like a near miss is the most likely outcome. The low is very strong, just too far offshore to be anything more than a typical rainstorm.

[CoastalWx]

Wtf euro lol

[wxsniss]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wtf euro lol

Looks like first trough is faster to exit and upstream trough is deeper. Closest approach since Sat 12z run. Outer Cape would get clobbered.

Makes landfall ~Portland-Brunswick ME then buzzsaws ME coast

[CoastalWx]

27 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Looks like first trough is faster to exit and upstream trough is deeper. Closest approach since Sat 12z run. Outer Cape would get clobbered.

Makes landfall ~Portland-Brunswick ME then buzzsaws ME coast

EPS confirms. Although tropical models are a bit east.

[SnoSki14]

The Euro would have some significant coastal impacts. Even though it won't be strong, probably 75-90mph, it'll be a very large system with tons of wave/erosion & surge potential.