Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, WxMatt21 said:

No updates! Says on time, so I guess we'll see. I feel like the thing I have going for me is a strong headwind. At least no t-storms will be in the vicinity! Crossing fingers...

A headwind?  Wouldn’t you have a tail wind heading east/NE?  Jet stream flows west to east overall, no? 

[Childude645]

The number of strong wind events the Cape goes through each year gives them lots of practice.  There will be issues but probably manageable by Cape standards.

Exactly it’s blows +40mph here multiple times a year.

What we aren’t accustomed to is hurricanes or at least we haven’t been for a long time. Was just speaking to my uncle about his and my parents parents remembering 38… for a while they took every subsequent tropical/ hurricane event very seriously. But slowly but surely every year since there’s been less and less of a concern or worry about hurricanes. NEnglanders overall are no longer prepared for big storms like our friends in FL


.

[WxMatt21]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

A headwind?  Wouldn’t you have a tail wind heading east/NE?  Jet stream flows west to east overall, no? 

I was referring to surface wind/being able to take off  

[WeatherHappens]

21 minutes ago, Childude645 said:

Exactly it’s blows +40mph here multiple times a year.

What we aren’t accustomed to is hurricanes or at least we haven’t been for a long time. Was just speaking to my uncle about his and my parents parents remembering 38… for a while they took every subsequent tropical/ hurricane event very seriously. But slowly but surely every year since there’s been less and less of a concern or worry about hurricanes. NEnglanders overall are no longer prepared for big storms like our friends in FL


.

It's been over 30yrs since hurricane Bob.

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, Childude645 said:

Exactly it’s blows +40mph here multiple times a year.

What we aren’t accustomed to is hurricanes or at least we haven’t been for a long time. Was just speaking to my uncle about his and my parents parents remembering 38… for a while they took every subsequent tropical/ hurricane event very seriously. But slowly but surely every year since there’s been less and less of a concern or worry about hurricanes. NEnglanders overall are no longer prepared for big storms like our friends in FL


.

Yep... 38 is almost impossible to envision based on our recent past.  My father lived through 38 in central CT and he recalled in very stark terms what the damage looked like...

[PowderBeard]

46 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said:

It's been over 30yrs since hurricane Bob.

My first memories. Generators, steak on the grill, and seeing pine trees swaying and snapping in my grandparents yard. 

I was on CC for Bertha in 1996 and that was wild. Beach sand + the wind was painful. SNE is definitely due.

[WhiteLawns]

Anyone gonna talk about how the gfs saw this happening like 15 days ago?

[WinterWolf]

31 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Yep... 38 is almost impossible to envision based on our recent past.  My father lived through 38 in central CT and he recalled in very stark terms what the damage looked like...

My grandfather said it looked like we were bombed after ‘38…trees snapped and cars flipped over everywhere, and buildings ripped open…this was New Britain, CT.  
 

And nobody knew it was coming… 

[bristolri_wx]

2 minutes ago, WhiteLawns said:

Anyone gonna talk about how the gfs saw this happening like 15 days ago?

GFS/GEFS did a good job on this one, but if it ever gets a hurricane track 15 days out it’s pure luck. However it has been in the ballpark and not waivered as much as the Euro throughout Lee’s existence. Score 1 for the Americans!!

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said:

GFS/GEFS did a good job on this one, but if it ever gets a hurricane track 15 days out it’s pure luck. However it has been in the ballpark and not waivered as much as the Euro throughout Lee’s existence. Score 1 for the Americans!!

We knew 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

West Bermuda bouy (240 miles west ) getting crushed last 5 hours with 50-55 knots sustained and gusts 70-80 knots each hour . 
 

wave heights 30 feet 

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41048

[Damage In Tolland]

Damage for many.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Damage for many.

Not here though.  The wait goes on. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Not here though.  The wait goes on. 

Let’s see if we can take down a few of your White pines as this backs west last 24

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s see if we can take down a few of your White pines as this backs west last 24

That’d be a feat at this point…but I guess there’s always hope…

[NoCORH4L]

I think the winds on the backside will be more than people expect..... nothing too crazy but certainly some outages and minor damages, maybe a tip-up here and there since the ground is a sog fest. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Man that was a nutty shift to the west of the GFS

[Hoth]

36 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

My first memories. Generators, steak on the grill, and seeing pine trees swaying and snapping in my grandparents yard. 

I was on CC for Bertha in 1996 and that was wild. Beach sand + the wind was painful. SNE is definitely due.

I remember Bertha! There was an insane wind surfer riding in it out at Fishers Island. Dude seemed like he was moving at highway speeds.

[Damage In Tolland]

Pretty big west shift across the 18z board. Should Scoter batten up 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pretty big west shift across the 18z board. Should Scoter batten up 

For 97L , Margot or Lee 

[FXWX]

25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

My grandfather said it looked like we were bombed after ‘38…trees snapped and cars flipped over everywhere, and buildings ripped open…this was New Britain, CT.  
 

And nobody knew it was coming… 

We grew up in New Britain as well.  My father described the roofs of 2 and 3 family houses lift off like and pinwheel to the ground like a Frisbee.  In Norfolk, CT at a small historic site there are before and after pictures of the hill sides... almost every oal tree looks like they were just mowed down.  In fact, most of the tall oaks across the interior of the state are post 1938...

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pretty big west shift across the 18z board. Should Scoter batten up 

Congrats on leaves falling off trees

[STILL N OF PIKE]

A model hasn’t ticked west in probably a day 

[Typhoon Tip]

38 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

GFS/GEFS did a good job on this one, but if it ever gets a hurricane track 15 days out it’s pure luck. However it has been in the ballpark and not waivered as much as the Euro throughout Lee’s existence. Score 1 for the Americans!!

Really is the silent remarkable aspect about the storm…

I mean really, the GFS storm track being within 500 miles of actual both disheartening as it is awe inspiring … doing so from day 10 when using the mean of all of its runs.  
 

 

[kdxken]

36 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

My grandfather said it looked like we were bombed after ‘38…trees snapped and cars flipped over everywhere, and buildings ripped open…this was New Britain, CT.  
 

And nobody knew it was coming… 

Absolutely true story. My grandfather was in charge of a city DPW in 38. All hell broke loose and officials couldn't find him anywhere. He got stranded at the race track

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pretty big west shift across the 18z board. Should Scoter batten up 

It’s 18z…enough said. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

A model hasn’t ticked west in probably a day 

Woody is drunk. Well, he was before…he’s probably passed out now. 

[HimoorWx]

Yep... 38 is almost impossible to envision based on our recent past.  My father lived through 38 in central CT and he recalled in very stark terms what the damage looked like...

My father lived in Barrington right on Narragansett Bay and lost some neighbors. When I was a kid I always remember him going to the basement if there were any strong winds. The sound brought back the memory of 38.

Sent from my SM-X200 using Tapatalk

[Snowcrazed71]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pretty big west shift across the 18z board. Should Scoter batten up 

Ha!!! Just let it go. This one's a goner. There's always the one brewing behind Lee...

[dendrite]

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pretty big west shift across the 18z board. Should Scoter batten up