Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Can someone post the 18z euro ensembles for me (not the mean) And yes I know it’s not landfalling

he gone

[Amped]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Lee couldn't even make it to 68W. Of course it wasn't going to be a good hit. 

Exactly my thinking.  Hard to capture a storm 150 miles from Bermuda and hook it back into New England. It needs to track much closer to the Carolinas.

[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Thank God this wasn't a snowstorm

Three months too early. Atmospheric memory setting up though. Congrats @dryslot & @tamarack.

[FXWX]

56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think most knew deep down this wouldn't be a big deal for the US, but people are bored and some tried to force a square peg into a round hole.

For sure most knew this was a long shot and was fighting decades of hurricane climatology for the Northeast.  In the end the usual east fade trend and history will win the day.  Once again it proves that the center line of the ensemble spread is usually the best course of action and chasing small numbers of westward members rarely works.  For folks looking for a good hit, I understand the excitement of rooting for any favorable members.  For forecasters like myself, there are still issues to deal with even if they are confined to immediate coastal plain... 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Exactly my thinking.  Hard to capture a storm 150 miles from Bermuda and hook it back into New England. It needs to track much closer to the Carolinas.

Even to 70W would've made a big difference in this instance 

[mitchnick]

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I agree in principal but we’ve had many strong autumn nor’easters that have caused significant amounts of winds and damage… just not hurricane level stuff. 

Sure.

This won't be one.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

For sure most knew this was a long shot and was fighting decades of hurricane climatology for the Northeast.  In the end the usual east fade trend and history will win the day.  Once again it proves that the center line of the ensemble spread is usually the best course of action and chasing small numbers of westward members rarely works.  For folks looking for a good hit, I understand the excitement of rooting for any favorable members.  For forecasters like myself, there are still issues to deal with even if they are confined to immediate coastal plain... 

Yep. Happy tracking...still going to cause some issues. All I mean is this isn't something I will blog about after the one entry to dismiss the threat last week. This will be one hell of a wave maker and plenty of beach erosion. 

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, Amped said:

Exactly my thinking.  Hard to capture a storm 150 miles from Bermuda and hook it back into New England. It needs to track much closer to the Carolinas.

You really could've punted when it was 1000 miles east of Puerto Rico. From that point forward the probabilities of a New England landfall based on storm position haven't really changed.

To get probabilities much above 1 in 4, you really have to scrape HAT.

[Torch Tiger]

6 minutes ago, FXWX said:

For sure most knew this was a long shot and was fighting decades of hurricane climatology for the Northeast.  In the end the usual east fade trend and history will win the day.  Once again it proves that the center line of the ensemble spread is usually the best course of action and chasing small numbers of westward members rarely works.  For folks looking for a good hit, I understand the excitement of rooting for any favorable members.  For forecasters like myself, there are still issues to deal with even if they are confined to immediate coastal plain... 

beers?

[wxsniss]

1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

1 run is an aberration, 2 is a coincidence, 3 is a trend. Forecasters shouldn’t flinch because 1 suite of models shifted 50-100 miles at day 4. 

Agree.
But in fact this was several days across multiple models (alternately GFS and Euro, and their ensembles) variably showing a track inside of 100 miles from Cape.

NHC did a good job with this. The mode of guidance tracks (which was on left edge of cone for several days) never changed their mean.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Agree.
But in fact this was several days across multiple models (alternately GFS and Euro, and their ensembles) variably showing a track inside of 100 miles from Cape.

NHC did a good job with this. The mode of guidance tracks (which was on left edge of cone for several days) never changed their mean.

The ensembles far too often flop around like a dead fish for a run , they certainly have many times when do a poor job of accurately showing any goalposts , but again that is why folks shouldn’t over react to one run but their were plenty of GEFS and EENS that hit Maine for about 4 days , and frankly this board doesn’t pay Maine much attention, that down mid coast and  East section did a have a decent risk for days as well as outer cape  , thou I’m not sure we have any posters from that area 

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

You really could've punted when it was 1000 miles east of Puerto Rico. From that point forward the probabilities of a New England landfall based on storm position haven't really changed.

To get probabilities much above 1 in 4, you really have to scrape HAT.

Yes, exactly. This was my rationale when I cancelled this threat last Thursday.

[FXWX]

33 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

beers?

?

[FXWX]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, exactly. This was my rationale when I cancelled this threat last Thursday.

Yep... excellent... 73 to 75 is the alley I start getting really interested; but even in that zone many more than not find a way to go south and east of SNE.  Nice job as usual...

[dryslot]

There is always "that" Nam run.

[Torch Tiger]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

There is always "that" Nam run.

I hope you get good damage, or at least flooding

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, Amped said:

Exactly my thinking.  Hard to capture a storm 150 miles from Bermuda and hook it back into New England. It needs to track much closer to the Carolinas.

that's been the train of thought since Saturday

[MJO812]

Nam is west

Game back on

[snowwors2]

2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The ensembles far too often flop around like a dead fish for a run , they certainly have many times when do a poor job of accurately showing any goalposts , but again that is why folks shouldn’t over react to one run but their were plenty of GEFS and EENS that hit Maine for about 4 days , and frankly this board doesn’t pay Maine much attention, that down mid coast and  East section did a have a decent risk for days as well as outer cape  , thou I’m not sure we have any posters from that area 

Not SO sure I’m out of the woods with this one…NE (offshore wind) should reduce storm surge/erosion impact (for my SW facing shoreline) but shallow rooted spruce/balsam tree damage along the rocky upper DownEast, Maine coastline will be significant‼️

[WxWatcher007]

Avert your eyes if you're one of those spending your time in here telling others it's a waste of time to spend their time in here

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2023

Both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft have
been investigating Lee this evening.  They found that the central
pressure has not changed much since earlier today, and that the
hurricane still had concentric eyewalls, but these were partially
open over portions of the western quadrant.  The Air Force
plane measured  700 mb flight-level winds as high as 105 kt and
the NOAA plane found winds as high as 107 kt at a flight level of
8000 ft.  Tail Doppler radar velocities from the NOAA plane were
near 100 kt at elevations of 0.5 km.  These observations support
maintaining the intensity at 90 kt for this advisory.  Satellite
imagery also suggests that the eyewall is not fully closed but
there is fairly intense inner-core convection.

There has been a (likely temporary) decrease in forward speed and
the initial motion is just west of due north or 350/8 kt.  The
steering scenario for the hurricane is essentially unchanged from
the previous few advisories.  A 500-mb trough moving into the
northeastern U.S. and a mid-level ridge near eastern Atlantic
Canada should cause Lee to move generally northward at a faster
forward speed during the next couple of days.  A slight bend to the
left is likely around 48 hours while the tropical cyclone interacts
with the trough.  This will likely bring the center of Lee close to
southeastern New England late Friday before it moves near or over
Maine and Atlantic Canada later in the weekend.  The official track
forecast is similar to the previous one and closely follows both the
simple and corrected dynamical consensus guidance.

Over the next couple of days, Lee will encounter significantly 
increasing vertical wind shear and somewhat drier mid- to low-level 
air.  Sea surface temperatures along the projected track decrease 
sharply north of around 40N latitude. These conditions should cause 
weakening, but since the hurricane has such a large circulation, the 
weakening will likely be slow.  The NHC intensity forecast is near 
or above the highest available model guidance.  Notwithstanding, 
there is still high confidence that Lee will be a large and 
dangerous cyclone when it moves near or over land on Saturday.

It should again be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed
probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are
likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring.  This is
because the forecast wind field of Lee is considerably larger than
average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed
probability product.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rainfall, and high surf are
expected to impact Bermuda beginning early Thursday, and a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for the island.

2. Hurricane conditions and coastal flooding are possible in 
portions of eastern Maine, southern New Brunswick, and western Nova 
Scotia on Saturday, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for that 
area.  Heavy rainfall in these areas may produce localized urban 
and small stream flooding from Friday night into Saturday night. 

3. There is the potential for life-threatening storm surge flooding
in portions of southeastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and
Nantucket, late Friday and Saturday, where a Storm Surge Watch has
been issued.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible over a large portion of
coastal New England, including Cape Cod, Nantucket, Martha's
Vineyard, Block Island, and portions of Atlantic Canada, where a
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 28.0N  67.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 29.6N  68.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 31.9N  68.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 34.8N  67.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 37.7N  66.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  16/1200Z 41.0N  66.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 44.0N  66.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 49.4N  60.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  19/0000Z 53.7N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Avert your eyes if you're one of those spending your time in here telling others it's a waste of time to spend their time in here

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2023

Both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft have
been investigating Lee this evening.  They found that the central
pressure has not changed much since earlier today, and that the
hurricane still had concentric eyewalls, but these were partially
open over portions of the western quadrant.  The Air Force
plane measured  700 mb flight-level winds as high as 105 kt and
the NOAA plane found winds as high as 107 kt at a flight level of
8000 ft.  Tail Doppler radar velocities from the NOAA plane were
near 100 kt at elevations of 0.5 km.  These observations support
maintaining the intensity at 90 kt for this advisory.  Satellite
imagery also suggests that the eyewall is not fully closed but
there is fairly intense inner-core convection.

There has been a (likely temporary) decrease in forward speed and
the initial motion is just west of due north or 350/8 kt.  The
steering scenario for the hurricane is essentially unchanged from
the previous few advisories.  A 500-mb trough moving into the
northeastern U.S. and a mid-level ridge near eastern Atlantic
Canada should cause Lee to move generally northward at a faster
forward speed during the next couple of days.  A slight bend to the
left is likely around 48 hours while the tropical cyclone interacts
with the trough.  This will likely bring the center of Lee close to
southeastern New England late Friday before it moves near or over
Maine and Atlantic Canada later in the weekend.  The official track
forecast is similar to the previous one and closely follows both the
simple and corrected dynamical consensus guidance.

Over the next couple of days, Lee will encounter significantly 
increasing vertical wind shear and somewhat drier mid- to low-level 
air.  Sea surface temperatures along the projected track decrease 
sharply north of around 40N latitude. These conditions should cause 
weakening, but since the hurricane has such a large circulation, the 
weakening will likely be slow.  The NHC intensity forecast is near 
or above the highest available model guidance.  Notwithstanding, 
there is still high confidence that Lee will be a large and 
dangerous cyclone when it moves near or over land on Saturday.

It should again be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed
probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are
likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring.  This is
because the forecast wind field of Lee is considerably larger than
average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed
probability product.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rainfall, and high surf are
expected to impact Bermuda beginning early Thursday, and a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for the island.

2. Hurricane conditions and coastal flooding are possible in 
portions of eastern Maine, southern New Brunswick, and western Nova 
Scotia on Saturday, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for that 
area.  Heavy rainfall in these areas may produce localized urban 
and small stream flooding from Friday night into Saturday night. 

3. There is the potential for life-threatening storm surge flooding
in portions of southeastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and
Nantucket, late Friday and Saturday, where a Storm Surge Watch has
been issued.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible over a large portion of
coastal New England, including Cape Cod, Nantucket, Martha's
Vineyard, Block Island, and portions of Atlantic Canada, where a
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 28.0N  67.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 29.6N  68.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 31.9N  68.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 34.8N  67.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 37.7N  66.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  16/1200Z 41.0N  66.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 44.0N  66.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 49.4N  60.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  19/0000Z 53.7N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 

What am I missing? I don't see anything compelling or any deviation from the expected...

[dryslot]

A slower progression is what i take from it.

[Typhoon Tip]

00z NAM slams it into the coast. Lol

 

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What am I missing? I don't see anything compelling or any deviation from the expected...

The temporary slowdown is mildly interesting to me and I can't really understand why Lee has held onto concentric eyewalls for days without ever really completing an ERC, but there's nothing new. Just posting information. 

Ryan pointed to this the other day, but I also don't know why their 34 & 50kt probabilities don't work as well given the fact that by the time any system gets up here it's almost always larger than in the tropics. You'd think that would be accounted for, even if a storm is in the 90th percentile of size. 

Edit: The track stuff is whatever to me at this point. I just like watching the progression of these systems, especially as they go ET, and how impactful they end up being and why. 

[dryslot]

Just an observation on the Nam, This is currently Lees position close to 68W, 18z Nam initialized its position near 66W which was east, It was closer to 68W @0z

[bristolri_wx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

 

Took me 15 minutes to figure out WTF this guy was talking about in relation to Tropical Tidbits. To think in my younger days I would watch the Long Ranger on Accuweather Pro to get his opinions, lol...

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The temporary slowdown is mildly interesting to me and I can't really understand why Lee has held onto concentric eyewalls for days without ever really completing an ERC, but there's nothing new. Just posting information. 

Ryan pointed to this the other day, but I also don't know why their 34 & 50kt probabilities don't work as well given the fact that by the time any system gets up here it's almost always larger than in the tropics. You'd think that would be accounted for, even if a storm is in the 90th percentile of size. 

Edit: The track stuff is whatever to me at this point. I just like watching the progression of these systems, especially as they go ET, and how impactful they end up being and why. 

Advisory 34 Lee was moving NNW@ 10 mph, 34A it was moving NNW@ 9 mph

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The temporary slowdown is mildly interesting to me and I can't really understand why Lee has held onto concentric eyewalls for days without ever really completing an ERC, but there's nothing new. Just posting information. 

Ryan pointed to this the other day, but I also don't know why their 34 & 50kt probabilities don't work as well given the fact that by the time any system gets up here it's almost always larger than in the tropics. You'd think that would be accounted for, even if a storm is in the 90th percentile of size. 

Edit: The track stuff is whatever to me at this point. I just like watching the progression of these systems, especially as they go ET, and how impactful they end up being and why. 

I hope it gets close enough bc I would like a storm...even if it is just a nor'Easter. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I’m interested to see the coastal flooding for this from the surge , I think it’s a wildcard to a degree , that is where I think any damage may surprise to the upside , literally on the beach .
 

The circulation Is huge and If that backs in enough to get onshore winds to gale force with the giant wave action on top , that is really and has really been my area of excitement / concern / interest .