Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[wxsniss]

Kudos to NHC for not flinching with the cone... there was a period yesterday when most ensembles and op runs and their trends were on the very left edge of their cone. Some mets (Dave Esptein most prominently) flinched.

Still significant lead time remaining in the scheme of tropical forecasting, and we've seen day-of 50-100 mile wobbles happen with majors, but what was always the most likely "correction vector" east is now increasingly supported by guidance today.

Hurricane models performed well. Euro / GFS debates? They swapped roles in the closest tracks at various times, so I'm not convinced one was truly better than the other.

In the camp of "I awe at severe like everyone on this forum but I don't want actual damage to my house", I'm relieved.

[Quincy]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What do you think that means in terms of the half that are tight on sw lean?

The outliers are shifting east and there’s more support for a wide right turn, than a rogue landfall left. I’d stick near the mean. Of course it could waffle a little either way, but there’s a higher probability for this to hit NS than for the Cape to see landfall.

SREFs are going the same way. A few kept showing a left hook into SNE. Now those have tightened up to the east. 

[WxWatcher007]

Why would the NHC have shifted its track dramatically west based on one or two model suites that were west? That’s why they go with continuity—with this stuff it’s better to have multi-day trends incorporated over the suite to suite whiplash. 

Even if there’s an (increasingly unlikely) move west through tomorrow you wouldn’t feel confident it were real until Friday. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Nothing like goin from a Charlie Browner event …squarely into a complete emptiness of any reason to engage 

Kind of like losing the Super Bowl when your hockey and hoops teams are in dead last 

[Torch Tiger]

it's officially dead   (not E Maine obviously, close enough to Caneada to get hits

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

it's officially dead   (not E Maine obviously, close enough to Caneada to get hits

Good thing Maine isn’t part of New England 

[MJO812]

52 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…you’re kidding right?  I remember you saying this last week, but thought you were fooling around.  Anytime one does that type of thing…it’s doomed to prove that person a liar. Never fails. 

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Why would the NHC have shifted its track dramatically west based on one or two model suites that were west? That’s why they go with continuity—with this stuff it’s better to have multi-day trends incorporated over the suite to suite whiplash. 

Even if there’s an (increasingly unlikely) move west through tomorrow you wouldn’t feel confident it were real until Friday. 

Especially when it’s the guidance that pulls this stuff  on its own only to come back east. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just another day at the ocean, inland peeps on here always make me laugh. This always was a coastal storm staying offshore.

[Torch Tiger]

Thread falling apart 

[Ginx snewx]

I wonder exactly what the surge will be up North This storm is huge and has more generated energy than the big ones. Talking water for you landlubbers

[SeanInWayland]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I wonder exactly what the surge will be up North This storm is huge and has more generated energy than the big ones. Talking water for you landlubbers

That's exactly what I was wondering looking at your wave map. The southern tip of NS being ground zero.

[MJO812]

Fish except for Nova Scotia

[Torch Tiger]

Hopefully it overachieves for those impacted.  First instinct is to wish the storm away since we aren't getting anything locally, but that's petty and childish.  Take the ball and go home. Hopefully it delivers.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, SeanInWayland said:

That's exactly what I was wondering looking at your wave map. The southern tip of NS being ground zero.

Yea potentially huge as it gets

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Childude645 said:

The went hurricane watch and trip storm for SNE


.

Oh, in that case let me evacuate, see ya

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Kudos to NHC for not flinching with the cone... there was a period yesterday when most ensembles and op runs and their trends were on the very left edge of their cone. Some mets (Dave Esptein most prominently) flinched.

Still significant lead time remaining in the scheme of tropical forecasting, and we've seen day-of 50-100 mile wobbles happen with majors, but what was always the most likely "correction vector" east is now increasingly supported by guidance today.

Hurricane models performed well. Euro / GFS debates? They swapped roles in the closest tracks at various times, so I'm not convinced one was truly better than the other.

In the camp of "I awe at severe like everyone on this forum but I don't want actual damage to my house", I'm relieved.

This was always a trivial ordeal in my mind.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, in that case let me evacuate, see ya

Serious what would be the highest wind ever there, 80?

[PowderBeard]

I'm still betting we don't have power for a bit here given the size of the windfield. Heck, during Irene in RI we barely sustained 35-40 for a few hours and were without power or cell phones over 8 days. We might stay with someone on the coast for the experience. 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Fish except for Nova Scotia

Welcome to two weeks ago

[Hoth]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This was always a trivial ordeal in my mind.

Yes. Although, to be fair, just about every tropical system save '38 is probably NBD in your hood.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, PowderBeard said:

I'm still betting we don't have power for a bit here given the size of the windfield. Heck, during Irene in RI we barely sustained 35-40 for a few hours and were without power or cell phones over 8 days. We might stay with someone on the coast for the experience. 

Irene had multiple spinners  in the outer bands. Lots of sheared trees

[Torch Tiger]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Irene had multiple spinners  in the outer bands. Lots of sheared trees

what's that got to do with this?

[WxWatcher007]

18 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Good thing Maine isn’t part of New England 

 

They steal our snow AND our tropical!

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea potentially huge as it gets

High impact event up there and into Nova Scotia. Imby centric forum loses sight of that, but it’s going to be a rough ride for a place that doesn’t usually get this. 

Just now, Hoth said:

Yes. Although, to be fair, just about every tropical system save '38 is probably NBD in your hood.

‘38 probably wasn’t high end there either because of the northward track. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Yes. Although, to be fair, just about every tropical system save '38 is probably NBD in your hood.

I don't mean MBY...I mean the region. I am not all IMBY with respect to the tropics.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Serious what would be the highest wind ever there, 80?

Probably around 100mph in 1938...just a guess.

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't mean MBY...I mean the region. I am not all IMBY with respect to the tropics.

Region wide is always tough, as you know. They hook east and weaken on approach more often than not. 

[wxsniss]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This was always a trivial ordeal in my mind.

Yeah you were solid with this.

I think I opened with a 10% chance of SNE landfall last weekend iirc, but the trends of the past 2 days made me nervous (of home damage, not of being wrong!)

Surf will be spectacular regardless.

Hoping for sake of Maine and NS that this could tick even further east. 

[brooklynwx99]

the synoptic pattern wasn't good enough for this to be a true EC landfall, which was apparent a while ago. it's a bit better than it originally looked, but still not good enough

you want that Atlantic ridge farther west or that trough deeper and farther east. too little, too late

[forkyfork]

On 9/12/2023 at 9:51 AM, forkyfork said:

the euro is west of everything else? wow

bump