Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[Snowcrazed71]

30 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

In no way is a blizzard more exciting than 100mph or even 120mph winds jmo

Trust me... I love the idea of the hurricane.... but.. I really don't want to worry about trees hitting my home or being without power for many days. Sandy affected friends of mine down on the shore and they lost everything. So... yes.. i love a good hurricane ( when I was younger I even hurricane chased when there was Bob that hit Rhode Island, it was exhilarating ). But not now

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Stick a fork in her. Boy it got quiet here. Has been a TOR otg past 1/2 hour and not even a mention about it.

Other thread 

[bobbutts]

Those left bending Euro members yesterday were enticing. 

[Quincy]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 A bit more than that for the ensemble runs. Yesterday's 18Z EPS was the peak with ~70% NE US landfalls with 30% just for NE US excluding Maine. At least two other EPS runs since yesterday had ~50% landfalling in New England. The GEFS for NE US landfalls peaked at over 40% three days ago and also had a run over 30% two days ago. But since yesterday, it has been mainly ~20% or less. Thus the EPS peaked after the GEFS backed down.

That’s what I mean. The totality of the runs over the past few days did not show a landfall. Kudos to NHC for not waffling and sticking closer to the consensus with continuity. Live and die by the model runs. Another great example that ensemble means can be very helpful when there’s uncertainty. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

Those left bending Euro members yesterday were enticing. 

…and they left weenies bent over. 

[Childude645]

Largest impact from my POV is the dews...I'm glad it stays east.

The went hurricane watch and trip storm for SNE


.

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, Quincy said:

That’s what I mean. The totality of the runs over the past few days did not show a landfall. Kudos to NHC for not waffling and sticking closer to the consensus with continuity. Live and die by the model runs. Another great example that ensemble means can be very helpful when there’s uncertainty. 

Agreed. The past five days have averaged for NE US landfalls ~25-30% on the EPS and ~20% on the GEFS. So, under 25% for the two, combined. Also, the GEPS (considered inferior and thus not as closely followed) has had a significantly lower % than the GEFS. Many of those runs had no more than 1-2 hits (10% or lower). So, yes, the totality of the GEFS/EPS/GEPS suggested about a four times better chance of no US landfall vs a landfall. But of course, it is easy to hindsight. Next time may be different. Just going with the 1 out of 5 chance for a landfall, the next time may be one of those 20%. And we shouldn't forget that there still is a chance at a ME landfall with Lee.

[CoastalWx]

GFS east too. Hopefully nobody saved a horse......

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

GFS east too. Hopefully nobody saved a horse......

 

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS east too. Hopefully nobody saved a horse......

Good call on the ticks east.  TTTE

[WeatherHappens]

I'll enjoy my Tropical Storm Watch while it lasts

[lee59]

It has been fairly consistent for eastern Maine to be feeling strong affects from lee. Looks like eastern New England should also feel affects. Still time for small moves east or west that can make a big difference. 

[klw]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How are the Srefs  looking ? Anyone Check?

I discount the SREFs unless they are giving me at least 30" of snow as an average

[dryslot]

Today the models had the front a bit more robust slowing down and moving Lee a bit east on its approach, We will see if that continues on the 0z runs, I would expect some waffling to the timing and strength, Biggest factor is still the winds, Minor changes there as Lee looks to maintain on some of these runs its tropical characteristics a bit longer, Especially into the GOM.

[Damage In Tolland]

Here’s a hint .. for those doubting winds west of coast .. look at mixing at both 925 and 850 .. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Here’s a hint .. for those doubting winds west of coast .. look at mixing at both 925 and 850 .. 

hey thanks chief i did. But man, that’s a huge pro tip!

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

hey thanks chief i did. But man, that’s a huge pro tip!

You have had a rough couple of weeks forecasting . Asked a sonnet today and you called flaccid .  Is your genny ready ? 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You have had a rough couple of weeks forecasting . Asked a sonnet today and you called flaccid .  Is your genny ready ? 

Been great forecasting. Going as planned. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Been great forecasting. Going as planned. 

Your struggles are well documented . There’s 175, 000 posts we can sort thru 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Your struggles are well documented . There’s 175, 000 posts we can sort thru 

Know when to hold and when to fold 

[MJO812]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS east too. Hopefully nobody saved a horse......

Damn I already warned my co workers about Sandy 2.0.

[mob1]

This is quickly trending towards a minor event for anyone outside of Maine (with perhaps far eastern New England getting a moderate event). 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, mob1 said:

This is quickly trending towards a minor event for anyone outside of Maine (with perhaps far eastern New England getting a moderate event). 

Incorrect 

[CCHurricane]

Getting the conversation back on topic...

18z GEFS actually shows an increased spread in LP track, with a southwest and northeast biased "stretch" around the mean. About half of the GEFS members are meaningfully closer to the eastern New England than the OP run.

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Incorrect 

Time will tell. Model skill only increases as the event draws closer, and you'd need a pretty significant shift to get a truly impactful event.

I was contemplating a trip to eastern Massachusetts but it's probably not worth it at this point. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Damn I already warned my co workers about Sandy 2.0.

Lol…you’re kidding right?  I remember you saying this last week, but thought you were fooling around.  Anytime one does that type of thing…it’s doomed to prove that person a liar. Never fails. 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

Getting the conversation back on topic...

18z GEFS actually shows an increased spread in LP track, with a southwest and northeast biased "stretch" around the mean. About half of the GEFS members are meaningfully closer to the eastern New England than the OP run.

Off hour runs almost always entertain…just like yesterday.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS east too. Hopefully nobody saved a horse......

The horse got put down, shades of Santa Anita.

[Quincy]

A tighter look at the 18z GEFS at 78 hours shows about half of the members east of the mean. Those to the west are relatively tight. Only about three members bring the center close to Cape Cod. None show a landfall there.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Quincy said:

A tighter look at the 18z GEFS at 78 hours shows about half of the members east of the mean. Those to the west are relatively tight. Only about three members bring the center close to Cape Cod. None show a landfall there.

What do you think that means in terms of the half that are tight on sw lean?