Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[brooklynwx99]

the ECMWF is still the best and I lean on it the most when it comes to medium range forecasting, but the gap has closed. I'd still say that the EPS is the highest skill model, but you have to take other pieces of guidance into account more so now

[Great Snow 1717]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

maybe its those interpreting the model(s) that are horrendous. 

If people didn't wet their pants at 7-10 SLP progs, snow maps, and other eye candy products, expectations would be more in check. 

A top 3 contender for post of the year award!!

[Chrisrotary12]

Lee isn't exactly cruising when it enters the Gulf of Maine.... is it even going to resemble anything at landfall?

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

maybe its those interpreting the model(s) that are horrendous. 

If people didn't wet their pants at 7-10 SLP progs, snow maps, and other eye candy products, expectations would be more in check. 

Snowmaps are one of the worst products out there beyond 24 hrs

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS has its issues too. Not the greatest in winter for temps. 

It costs a few bucks but have you thought of paying for the KURO , usually busts 5 f cold in winter and flip that bias in summer . It’s very usable .

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, DomNH said:

Frankly trying to comprehend why anyone in the interior is excited for this. I suppose if you get off on -RA and low-end wind advisory gusts that's cool, but just looks like another ruined summer Saturday to me. 

Yeah we've all come to terms with it. No one can be holding on at this point

[Ginx snewx]

Hmm 

[OceanStWx]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep the model upgrade ruined it.

I think much of the effort is pouring in ensembles. Improving those and creating new tools for visualization. Increasingly I think deterministic models are becoming just another ensemble member which can ping around between the goal posts. 

NCEP is moving towards a paradigm with a 60 hour hi-res model and beyond that moving more towards the ensemble space.

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I think much of the effort is pouring in ensembles. Improving those and creating new tools for visualization. Increasingly I think deterministic models are becoming just another ensemble member which can ping around between the goal posts. 

NCEP is moving towards a paradigm with a 60 hour hi-res model and beyond that moving more towards the ensemble space.

Aren't they doing something with the euro op too? Like incorporating that into the ensemble and not having it stand alone?

[CoastalWx]

In any case, this is the time when 30-40 mile shifts mean a lot. No argument there.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Aren't they doing something with the euro op too? Like incorporating that into the ensemble and not having it stand alone?

Wouldn't shock me. It's kind of a waste of computer resources at this point.

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

In any case, this is the time when 30-40 mile shifts mean a lot. No argument there.

I just want this to move enough to be a great storm for Chatham

[forkyfork]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Wouldn't shock me. It's kind of a waste of computer resources at this point.

can we please have 4dvar already

[J Paul Gordon]

Any thoughts on the actual storm?

 

[GaWx]

51 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the ECMWF is still the best and I lean on it the most when it comes to medium range forecasting, but the gap has closed. I'd still say that the EPS is the highest skill model, but you have to take other pieces of guidance into account more so now

UKMET has also done pretty well overall with the tropics for track (not intensity though). It was doing the best for Lee with the Euro second best as per graphs that were posted earlier. Also, it did great for Ian last year as regards both the FL and SC landfalls and I think it was pretty good for Idalia.

[Chrisrotary12]

9 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Any thoughts on the actual storm?

 

Just close enough to ruin a Saturday. Meh unless you live on the coast or eastern Maine.

[weatherwiz]

Looks like maybe a slight tick east with 18z hurricane models. In fact, only Maine and Cape Cod are peaking into the image now

[Torch Tiger]

wow

[CoastalWx]

Looks about the same. 

[CoastalWx]

NAM east too fwiw.

[JC-CT]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM east too fwiw.

If people just waited for the NAM, we wouldn't have any issues. That's why the NAM is king.

[Snowcrazed71]

There was never really a good chance of this hitting Southern New England. It was even a stretch touching Cape cod. I'd rather have a massive blizzard than a devastating hurricane. You still get all the excitement, and yes you still get some issues with a blizzard, but you don't get the widespread damage that you would get with a hurricane.

[Torch Tiger]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

There was never really a good chance of this hitting Southern New England. It was even a stretch touching Cape cod. I'd rather have a massive blizzard than a devastating hurricane. You still get all the excitement, and yes you still get some issues with a blizzard, but you don't get the widespread damage that you would get with a hurricane.

In no way is a blizzard more exciting than 100mph or even 120mph winds jmo

[Brian5671]

Tropical storm watch RI through most of Maine, Hurricane watch, eastern Maine

[FXWX]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

In any case, this is the time when 30–40-mile shifts mean a lot. No argument there.

Yes to this... In this case for eastern MA, even a 20-mile shift will cause significant forecast changes in terms of tree damage and power outage potential...   During all storms that have the potential for meaningful numbers of power outages, I'm involved with the pre-positioning of generators for sale to the public at a variety of New England stores (one client with dozens of stores throughout New England).  Given limited supply, we try to make a call as to where the greatest numbers of units should be positioned prior to the storm's impacts...  But we do not want to leave stores not near the core of the highest threat area without some units, in case there is a shift in the wind gusts forecast... In this case, they have to be at the clients stores by Friday afternoon at the latest.  The bottom line, a 20-to-30-mile shift in the track can be very impactful to what I do and the clients bottom line.

[Quincy]

Granted the track with Lee is unique, we’ve seen this same thing play out almost every year. 

A tropical system threatens the East Coast. It’s not unprecedented for landfall, but it’s relatively uncommon in most cases. Model noise shows a few runs that either make or threaten landfall and people start freaking out. I did play into the hype a bit, but it’s time to accept that any substantial westward trend is done  

What percentage of the model runs/ensemble members showed a New England landfall over the past 3-4 days? 10%? 20%? 5%?

I still think there’s a legit possibility that the Cape and parts of coastal Maine are affected with tropical storm force conditions and some flooding, but anyone hoping for a repeat of Bob, Gloria or Sandy are going to be disappointed. 

[Damage In Tolland]

How are the Srefs  looking ? Anyone Check?

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How are the Srefs  looking ? Anyone Check?

Couple of lows over the Andrea gale.

[MarkO]

Stick a fork in her. Boy it got quiet here. Has been a TOR otg past 1/2 hour and not even a mention about it.

[GaWx]

34 minutes ago, Quincy said:

What percentage of the model runs/ensemble members showed a New England landfall over the past 3-4 days? 10%? 20%? 5%?

 A bit more than that for the ensemble runs. Yesterday's 18Z EPS was the peak with ~70% NE US landfalls with 30% (15 members) just for NE US excluding Maine. At least two other EPS runs since yesterday had ~50% landfalling in New England. The GEFS for NE US landfalls peaked at over 40% on one run three days ago and also had a run over 30% two days ago. But since yesterday, it has been mainly ~20% or less. Thus the EPS peaked after the GEFS backed down.