Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[CoastalWx]

Euro heading to the GFS. Imagine that.

[Sn0waddict]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1702009839696703928?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Ah yes the legendary JMA/SPIRE combo. Right up there with the old EURO/UKIE.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

12z euro probably will be east of 00z it seems based early on.

Front is lagging a bit this run, Should be a tic or two east.

[Great Snow 1717]

9 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

yeah, hoping for trees tipping over with the root system attached is lame as f

.....agree..what is the thrill in that???....there are some larger broken tree limbs across from the Loop in Methuen...perhaps I should charge $10 for people to tour the "Broken Tree Limb Patch"... For people from Tolland the cost is $25

[weatherwiz]

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Much like in hockey, Lee is going to rebound off of Nova Scotia and slam into Boston..

[DomNH]

Frankly trying to comprehend why anyone in the interior is excited for this. I suppose if you get off on -RA and low-end wind advisory gusts that's cool, but just looks like another ruined summer Saturday to me. 

[GaWx]

12Z Euro landfall NB hour 90 early 9/17 974 mb

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Euro caves to gfs . Tad faster last couple runs and sizeable 60 mile jump East . 
 

I noticed the trough at 12z Friday on the 12z run took longer to get out of Maine area then same time at the 0z run . Probably contributed 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

18 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Frankly trying to comprehend why anyone in the interior is excited for this. I suppose if you get off on -RA and low-end wind advisory gusts that's cool, but just looks like another ruined summer Saturday to me. 

after the euro goes well East This statement  is easier to make for Merrimack valley 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Euro caves to gfs . Tad faster last couple runs and sizeable 60 mile jump East . 
 

I noticed the trough at 12z Friday on the 12z run took longer to get out of Maine area then same time at the 0z run . Probably contributed 

Take the horse and grind it up for pet food?

[Brian5671]

30 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Ah yes the legendary JMA/SPIRE combo. Right up there with the old EURO/UKIE.

JB trying to keep the weenies hooked to the bitter end....

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Take the horse and grind it up for pet food?

You better go back and compare the last half dozen runs and then tell me the GFS had any clue up until this morning. You have a known anti Euro bias for some reason. Many winters we tried to tell you when you were incessantly whining using the GFS for the basis of your whine. I will take the Euro again when the final solution is done and you take the GFS then when track analysis comes out we will see who had the greatest errors.

[Ginx snewx]

26 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Frankly trying to comprehend why anyone in the interior is excited for this. I suppose if you get off on -RA and low-end wind advisory gusts that's cool, but just looks like another ruined summer Saturday to me. 

Go ruin your day at the Ocean it may turn your frown upside down.

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

JB trying to keep the weenies hooked to the bitter end....

Did he drop his 920 mb peak restrengthening prediction yet? The lowest it got back down to was 946 mb per NHC advisories.

[SnowBrosForever]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Seems like you guys are chasing the end of an unmanned firehose as its flopping around from one run to the next

That's certainly what it looks like to us lurkers. So glad you professional sorts think the same thing. It feels like we've been tracking this since 2015, but it's only been a week.

[psv88]

How much for Philly?

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You better go back and compare the last half dozen runs and then tell me the GFS had any clue up until this morning. You have a known anti Euro bias for some reason. Many winters we tried to tell you when you were incessantly whining using the GFS for the basis of your whine. I will take the Euro again when the final solution is done and you take the GFS then when track analysis comes out we will see who had the greatest errors.

What? LOL. I think you went wild. 

I used to always use the Euro. But it's not even close to the separation it used to have.  It's bias is overamping...whatveer you want to call it is evident. And now on display by moving east to guidance consensus. When it comes to critical decision time (like 3-4 days out) I don't care if it nailed a random op run a week ago. I specifically said it will go east and...well it has. 

[MJO812]

Euro and eps have been trash for years

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro and eps have been trash for years

except when it shows a HECS then it's a great model

[Chrisrotary12]

When's the last time Maine had a landfalling TC? Can at least root for that. But I'm with Dom. Just a PIA ruining another Saturday.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro and eps have been trash for years

It's not trash, but it's not like it was pre 2015. Probably still the better model overall but barely.

[NotSureWeather]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

When's the last time Maine had a landfalling TC? Can at least root for that. But I'm with Dom. Just a PIA ruining another Saturday.

1969, nice, Hurricane Gerta.

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

When's the last time Maine had a landfalling TC? Can at least root for that. But I'm with Dom. Just a PIA ruining another Saturday.

 

3 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

1969, nice, Hurricane Gerta.

TC, Bob made landfall as a tropical storm, but hurricane is Gerda. 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

except when it shows a HECS then it's a great model

Remember how many times it showed it last year? It's horrendous .

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's not trash, but it's not like it was pre 2015. Probably still the better model overall but barely.

Yep the model upgrade ruined it.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Remember how many times it showed it last year? It's horrendous .

let's remember that this year when it over amps everything

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Yep the model upgrade ruined it.

And each successive upgrade after that initial one, has seemed to confuse it even more.  They should just go back to the pre 2015 Euro, and watch it kick ass again. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep the model upgrade ruined it.

I think the GFS just caught up. And yeah, some tweaks they did on the euro seemed to affect some performance. GFS has its issues too. Not the greatest in winter for temps. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Remember how many times it showed it last year? It's horrendous .

maybe its those interpreting the model(s) that are horrendous. 

If people didn't wet their pants at 7-10 SLP progs, snow maps, and other eye candy products, expectations would be more in check.