Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[WxWatcher007]

48 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I've been mostly lurking lately but have been watching Lee closely.

Here is a  guess on watching/warnings if the track holds serve with just noise adjustments as models settle in. When would watches go up?  5pm or 11pm advisory tomorrow?  Again, I'm just guessing so no flame throwing!

Hurricane Watch from Watch Hill RI, Cape Cod and the islands and up along the coast.  Inland high wind watch RI and Eastern Mass, NH and inland Maine. 

If the track stayed as, a guess might be that as the track locks in watches would change to tropical storm warning RI, Cape and Islands and Mass Coast.  Perhaps hurricane warning downeast Maine coast but with north winds would hurricane gusts be recorded or just tropical storm winds.

If I had to guess, it’d be expansive TS watches and a small hurricane watch zone. 34kt at the coast should be easy. Sustained 64kt will be hard, even at the Cape. Won’t be a cane by the time it gets to Maine. 

Watches up at 5pm

Tropical Storm Watch US/Canada border to Provincetown, MA.

Hurricane Watch Provincetown to Chatham, including Nantucket. 

Tropical Storm Watch west of Chatham to Point Judith including Block Island & Martha’s Vineyard. 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Getting the ground wet and hoping that causes trees to uproot is like stealing a little kids ice cream cone. That's cheating. Give me the raw snapping power. 

I love this  

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Getting the ground wet and hoping that causes trees to uproot is like stealing a little kids ice cream cone. That's cheating. Give me the raw snapping power. 

Haha, as long as it’s on the ground when it ends, does it really matter how it got there?

Get some 10-15mph breezes and pay Ken to drop trees in the backyard for ambiance.

[Rtd208]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Getting the ground wet and hoping that causes trees to uproot is like stealing a little kids ice cream cone. That's cheating. Give me the raw snapping power. 

Thats what she said.

[MaineJayhawk]

If it's just trees laying on the ground you want, call kdxken over

[Cyclone-68]

Thank God it’s raining again, it’s been at least 15 minutes since it did last 

[wx2fish]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Haha, as long as it’s on the ground when it ends, does it really matter how it got there?

Get some 10-15mph breezes and pay Ken to drop trees in the backyard for ambiance.

Fake damage, fake cold, fake snow...atleast he's consistent 

[CoastalWx]

12z HAFS-A and B aren't far off the Cape.

[Ginx snewx]

Woah Lee is one big ass powerful system. Integrated Kinetic Energy vs Katrina.  That's a helluva surge buidlup

[WxWatcher007]

Anthony sitting in the cruiser after a shoplifting collar still praying for any damage he can get 

[Damage In Tolland]

Hey hey.. new JMA… what ya got to say …

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hey hey.. new JMA… what ya got to say …

 

[Great Snow 1717]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hey hey.. new JMA… what ya got to say …

..and during the winter if someone posts the JMA showing a miss of a potential nor'easter you will ask...

"Why is anyone using the JMA?"

[SouthCoastMA]

Live shot of CoastalWx of whipping the weenies back to reality after 12z gfs

[weatherwiz]

Down to 110 mph 

[dendrite]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Getting the ground wet and hoping that causes trees to uproot is like stealing a little kids ice cream cone. That's cheating. Give me the raw snapping power. 

The cane may be my first chance to downslope and dry out all summer.

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Live shot of CoastalWx of whipping the weenies back to reality after 12z

more like this:

[SouthCoastMA]

yeah, hoping for trees tipping over with the root system attached is lame as f

[CoastalWx]

Nah I'm not doing anything like that at the moment. Still a little uncertain, but we grounded.

[Ginx snewx]

Only ass whooping I see are those who blew the Euro off and tossed it. Amazing everything coming back to its week ago forecast.

[ma blizzard]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Down to 110 mph 

at best it should be like 90 mph, maybe 95 mph

max sfmr readings are like 75 kts

[ineedsnow]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hey hey.. new JMA… what ya got to say …

I will say it's been consistent 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, ma blizzard said:

at best it should be like 90 mph 

recon found 105 knot flight level wind so guessing they took a percent of that. But outside of that nothing really shows anything that close. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Only ass whooping I see are those who blew the Euro off and tossed it. Amazing everything coming back to its week ago forecast.

Ha, if it gets near CHH then sure. It's fading east last few runs. Of course it moved east after the crazy run a week ago. 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

recon found 105 knot flight level wind so guessing they took a percent of that. But outside of that nothing really shows anything that close. 

Yeah, they’re still finding solid FL winds. Probably a generous 110 but I don’t think it’s below 100.

[CoastalWx]

12z euro probably will be east of 00z it seems based early on.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Look at the gridpoints and how coarse the resolution is. Just because it's placing the L on that lowest gridpoint it doesn't mean that's where the low really is.

Just saw the higher res. Yeah it's off its rocker. lol

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Ha, if it gets near CHH then sure. It's fading east last few runs. Of course it moved east after the crazy run a week ago. 

Sept 7th Euro, yes a few windshield wiper 100 mile shifts but consistently in that zone

[ma blizzard]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

recon found 105 knot flight level wind so guessing they took a percent of that. But outside of that nothing really shows anything that close. 

that's true .. but still seems like a big stretch to me 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1702009839696703928?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg