Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[weatherwiz]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We tried 

Onto Nigel

You should just move onto to next Mets season

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You, IneedCane, and Woody are commended for your diligent efforts. 

If I were you.. I’d have your genny ready Saturday 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

If I were you.. I’d have your genny ready Saturday 

But you are not me and I am not you. I’ll bring in my patio umbrella just to be safe though. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

But you are not me and I am not you. I’ll bring in my patio umbrella just to be safe though. 

He is I and I is him. Luke with the tilted trees ..

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

But you are not me and I am not you. I’ll bring in my patio umbrella just to be safe though. 

 You’re going to have a peak gust of 25 mph.

[Go Kart Mozart]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If I were you.. I’d have your genny ready Saturday 

Our high school go-to beer!

[GaWx]

Some 12Z run landfalls:

-Arpege: NB very late 9/16 980 mb

-ICON: NB early 9/17 975 mb

-GFS: NB early 9/17 976 mb

-CMC: SW NS early 9/17 981 mb

-UKMET: SW NS late 9/16 966 mb

 

 

[wxeyeNH]

I've been mostly lurking lately but have been watching Lee closely.

Here is a  guess on watching/warnings if the track holds serve with just noise adjustments as models settle in. When would watches go up?  5pm or 11pm advisory tomorrow?  Again, I'm just guessing so no flame throwing!

Hurricane Watch from Watch Hill RI, Cape Cod and the islands and up along the coast.  Inland high wind watch RI and Eastern Mass, NH and inland Maine. 

If the track stayed as, a guess might be that as the track locks in watches would change to tropical storm warning RI, Cape and Islands and Mass Coast.  Perhaps hurricane warning downeast Maine coast but with north winds would hurricane gusts be recorded or just tropical storm winds.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

If they go hurricane watch, they will completely panic the coast. 

[Quincy]

GEFS is way SW from 06z, but a tick east of 00z. Solutions are consolidating and intensity has notched up slightly. (Mainly due to less spread dampening the mean)

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If they go hurricane watch, they will completely panic the coast. 

Largest impact from my POV is the dews...I'm glad it stays east.

[wxeyeNH]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If they go hurricane watch, they will completely panic the coast. 

I think you are right.  Tropical storm watches would be a better choice as it may be marginal to get a few hurricane gusts. 

[DavisStraight]

24 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Our high school go-to beer!

Our college drink, Genesee beer balls

[weatherwiz]

is anyone else able to get bufkit data from PSU?

[WinterWolf]

I do remember Gustav now…sun was out and winds were roaring…made us take the kids inside at school cuz branches and limbs were snapping everywhere…it was impressive here, considering we weren’t affected much by anything else.  I don’t know if this Saturday ends up Like that, or  is to that intensity here, but that was pretty wild.  I guess it’s possible if it mixes well enough? 

[willyvonka]

That was a massive SW shift on the GEFS. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I do remember Gustav now…sun was out and winds were roaring…made us take the kids inside at school cuz branches and limbs were snapping everywhere…it was impressive here, considering we weren’t affected much by anything else.  I don’t know if this Saturday ends up Like that, or  is to that intensity here, but that was pretty wild.  I guess it’s possible if it mixes well enough? 

Yup . That is what Saturday will be like all over interior SNE . 

[mreaves]

10 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Our college drink, Genesee beer balls

I have had that experience.

[CCHurricane]

GFS Ensemble Comparison

September 13th - 00z vs. 06z vs. 12z

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup . That is what Saturday will be like all over interior SNE . 

If it is…then that will be fun, cuz that ripped that afternoon here for sure.  Lots of big old trees that had any weaknesses came down…along with lots of big limbs.  I guess we’ll see how it looks by Friday afternoon. 
 

Oh and btw…it’s pouring again lol.  Lots of Soft ground. 

[weatherwiz]

Well based on recon so far there is no way Lee is still a cat 3

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Well based on recon so far there is no way Lee is still a cat 3

It's been 100kts for too long IMO.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It's been 100kts for too long IMO.

Agreed, this has not been a cat 3 for some time now. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Seems like you guys are chasing the end of an unmanned firehose as its flopping around from one run to the next

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Agreed, this has not been a cat 3 for some time now. 

Agree with you both. The NHC likes continuity and with a larger wind field they also assumed undersampling. 

[lee59]

So it appears the slower Lee is now, the more the shift to the west may be as it  approaches the northeast. Also indications it may slow as it approaches Maine and eventually accelerates to the northeast.. 

[ma blizzard]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed, this has not been a cat 3 for some time now. 

I've literally seen nothing to support the advisory intensity the past 24+ hours .. I have no idea why they have kept it at 115 mph for so long 

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

GFS Ensemble Comparison

September 13th - 00z vs. 06z vs. 12z

Whoa!

[Spaizzo]

If it is…then that will be fun, cuz that ripped that afternoon here for sure.  Lots of big old trees that had any weaknesses came down…along with lots of big limbs.  I guess we’ll see how it looks by Friday afternoon. 
 
Oh and btw…it’s pouring again lol.  Lots of Soft ground. 

That’s my largest concern. It’s been wet the past week… won’t take much breeze or more rain to see weak trees or shallow rooted trees to fall


.

[CoastalWx]

Getting the ground wet and hoping that causes trees to uproot is like stealing a little kids ice cream cone. That's cheating. Give me the raw snapping power.