Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[Quincy]

15 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z Nam is a bit slower then the 06z run, Should be west some i think given where the trough is going.

No big changes, almost identical to the 00z run thru 57hr

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Quincy said:

No big changes, almost identical to the 00z run thru 57hr

almost the same as 0z but sw of 6z 

[Snowcrazed71]

16 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

 

Zzzzzzzz

 

I agree, but your buddy Kevin is bracing for a storm and no one's telling him otherwise...lolol

[ineedsnow]

the high on the NAM looks to be in a better spot

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

almost the same as 0z but sw of 6z 

Its Sw of 06z, About 1° west of it.

[Quincy]

Through 72 hours, it’s basically between 00z and 06z runs. Heading for Bar Harbor it looks like. 

[dryslot]

Just now, Quincy said:

Through 72 hours, it’s basically between 00z and 06z runs. Heading for Bar Harbor it looks like. 

Looks like it

[weatherwiz]

Lee now moving NNW and picked up speed all so slightly (9 mph) per 11 AM advisory 

[dryslot]

[CoastalWx]

Eh

[Quincy]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Lee now moving NNW and picked up speed all so slightly (9 mph) per 11 AM advisory 

Keep in mind, this thing is going to bend back N and possibly even NNE for a time around the Atlantic ridge, before a likely shift back N/NNW. 

Not seeing any interaction with an approaching shortwave across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. That will be key if there are any hopes left for a westward turn. I imagine it won’t go much more west than the current consensus, but you never know. 

[CoastalWx]

Windy Saturday afternoon verbatim

[Quincy]

You actually want slower movement now, so there’s less interaction with the initial exiting shortwave. Less opportunity to get tugged east.

The models seek to be locking in. There’s some noise, but I don’t think there’s room for any major shifts west or east now that we’re getting inside of 72ish hours. 

[kdxken]

Got a storm, fact I got two
That's O.K. man, 'cause I love god
Glorified version of a nor'easter.
Feels so manly...

[WeatherHappens]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Windy Saturday afternoon verbatim

is that a bad thing?

[toller65]

Folks up here have no fuking clue what’s going on.

The rain over the past 24 hrs and later today are not doing us any favors in the coastal areas of southern Maine...I am anticipating a long duration power outage.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, FXWX said:

I agree HUGE is likely inappropriate, I also think using the term "Nor'easter" in the thread title was a good way to treat the threat.  I have become a bit more interested even though this will be a storm passing east of the Cape, which usually does not get me overly interested.   My interest is peaked by the strong winds that continue to be modeled for the 900 / 925 mb levels.  This will be gradient driven and the only question for eastern portions of CT/RI and eastern Mass, excluding the Cape, is how efficient is the mixing?  Given the progged wind fields, a well-mixed event will lead to pretty widespread power issues given current status of trees (still lots of leaves) & very wet ground surfaces in eastern sections of SNE, eastern CT/RI/inside the 495 corridor of Mass.  So, no major hurricane hit, but still solid hit for Cape Cod and coastal eastern Mass... Disruptive wind gusts for interior eastern portions of SNE, "IF" mixing become efficient.  If we do not see decent mixing then this will end-up pretty meh for anyone away from the coast.

Yes, this is fair.

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/ryanmaue/status/1701968412593754390?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[MJO812]

Icon further west

[CoastalWx]

GFS east

[CoastalWx]

Yawn

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS east

Yep southeast 

Zzzzzzz

[MJO812]

Where is the southeast ridge when you need it ?

O yea we will see it during the winter 

[CoastalWx]

East of 00z anyways. Looks close or just east of 6z. I expect euro probably ticks east.

[MJO812]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

East of 00z anyways. Looks close or just east of 6z. I expect euro probably ticks east.

We tried 

Onto Nigel

[Quincy]

GFS ever so slightly east.

The wind field is still fairly intact. One of the stronger runs. Verbatim, looks like a cat 1 cane just SE of Maine, if the run is taken literally. There’s a little tease jog NW between 72-78hr before it makes the NNE turn into the Bay of Fundy. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Quincy said:

GFS ever so slightly east.

The wind field is still fairly intact. One of the stronger runs. Verbatim, looks like a cat 1 cane just SE of Maine, if the run is taken literally. There’s a little tease jog NW between 72-78hr before it makes the NNE turn into the Bay of Fundy. 

Very expansive 925mb wind field. If that mixes effectively it’s a pretty windy Saturday further west. Overall though pretty similar to 06z and east of that 00z jump. 

Model run—>Meh/excitement posts—>Quiet in between runs—>Rinse & repeat

[MJO812]

Eastern Maine is going to get hit hard

[Damage In Tolland]

It has no bearing on winds. Not the gradient winds. Why are folks so hung up on exact track unless you are in LF slot?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We tried 

Onto Nigel

You, IneedCane, and Woody are commended for your diligent efforts.