Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Largest impacts here will be beach erosion and insult to injury rains if it gets close enough.

[Damage In Tolland]

Remain tight to the vest.  Don’t allow for bigger outcomes and potential. Play it conservatively 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nah just go all out. Don’t be so negative. 

Name me a tropical system that produced damaging wind here with a track east of the region.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Go full on destruction for any cyclone tickling cape cod. Toss everything and let the weenie fly free.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

30 minutes ago, 512high said:

Working NH Seacoast on Monday...will I still have large surf, or is this thing going to rapidly move out? Have a friend leaving today for Newfoundland for hunting trip lol

Not much 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Name me a tropical system that produced damaging wind here with a track east of the region.

60+ river east!

The wind field will expand, but I don’t see that intense transition near us. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Name me a tropical system that produced damaging wind here with a track east of the region.

Whoosh

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Throw caution to the wind.  Don’t allow for climatologically favored outcomes and always go big anomaly. Play passive aggressively and always equivocate and be ready to subtly shift the goal posts at a moment's notice.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Name me a tropical system that produced damaging wind here with a track east of the region.

Gustav 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Keep your vests tight and your pants belt even tighter 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Gustav 

I don't even remember it.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Lots of anger and violence , hate to see it

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't even remember it.

Same 

[yoda]

Watches could be coming later today per NHC 8am update

Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
800 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA 
BEGINNING EARLY TOMORROW...
...RISK OF WIND, COASTAL FLOODING, AND RAIN IMPACTS INCREASING FOR
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 67.2W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

Interests in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Lee.  Watches may be required for a
portion of these areas later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Same 

I am actually happy.....this isn't blog worthy in my mind, and I just get to sit back and see what happens this weekend...hopefully a nice warm up for winter with big lows backing that a$$ up from the sse.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Lots of anger and violence , hate to see it

Nah, just trying to keep it real.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nah, just trying to keep it real.

Woody gets angry when mets and hobbyists aren’t all in on the 99th percentile outcome. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Lol No doubt Stein reads the board . This is priceless. 
https://x.com/growingwisdom/status/1701898710160908631?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Woody gets angry when mets and hobbyists aren’t all in on the 99th percentile outcome. 

This place is a toy for him....if you really want to know what he thinks, watch his FB feed....there is no one on this planet more concerned about public perception and he is always very reasonable on social media.

[Hoth]

Question: there’s a pretty solid pressure gradient between a mid 960s Lee and a roughly 1020 high north of it. Might that contribute to the wind threat?

[Damage In Tolland]

Lean bigger folks .. lean big 

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1701920743527956563?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[snowdazed]

I'm just trying to figure out if I should make a bread & milk run before Saturday.

[bristolri_wx]

The narratives around here change about as quickly as the weather.

Early on people were excited about direct hits to New England with Lee being a hurricane, and possibly strong, with this unusual eastern track Lee is taking.

Some are treating this as a strong nor’easter because Lee will be acting more like that than it will be a landfalling New England hurricane. This doesn’t mean we won’t see effects and damage. But it won’t be like anything like a land falling hurricane that take the usual west of the Gulf Stream track that those storms have made. This will be a decaying storm, over cooler waters, not phasing and experiencing much extra tropical transition until it gets farther pas our area. Nor’easters have also produced damage to our area as well, without snow.

There is nothing I see in guidance from models or even the NHC that says otherwise. It’s gonna be a very crummy weekend for a large chunk of New England which falls on the westerns side of Lee.

[dendrite]

Probably just enough rain back here to wetbulb down, get a bit of an inversion, and muck up the wind potential. 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

As of now it’s 50-60 mph river east and 40-50 mph for Wolf to Runaway west Even before this massive be west shift across guidance Ryan yesterday had 40-45 knots with mixing 

Way to confident man. Don't see this doing much for us in Ct. I know you want an Ass Blaster.... but you may have to settle for a French Tickler

[CoastalWx]

6z Euro will not be like 18z that’s for sure. 

[ineedsnow]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z Euro will not be like 18z that’s for sure. 

looks close to me?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

looks close to me?

Nope. And a tick east of 00z too.

[CoastalWx]

Like clockwork 

[CoastalWx]

So a tad NE of 00z near our latitude. Probably a hair faster and a hair east.