Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Also why are we treating this like a Nor'Easter forecast with typical west trends 48-72 hours then last second jump east? This is a tropical system?? In my mind anything is possible still with a track over the cape or a track 200 miles east of the cape. 

My rule of thumb for tropical is beware the last minute drift east. Not even thinking of nor’easter climo here. 

Agree with that envelope of possibilities too. Still quite a bit of time to go with this one. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Also why are we treating this like a Nor'Easter forecast with typical west trends 48-72 hours then last second jump east? This is a tropical system?? In my mind anything is possible still with a track over the cape or a track 200 miles east of the cape. 

Shortwave over the GL blocks the west movement and eventually kicks it east as it gets into the GOM. 0z euro is about as far west as this can get imo. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Stein backing off his no "big deal " after the latest model runs .

 

 

 

Tried to tell you…saw that coming a mile away. 

[dryslot]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Bar Harbor area could be fun for Lee

All along the Maine coast pushing all that water into the harbors the storm surge could be quite extensive.

[Ginx snewx]

42 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Yeah, not expecting much here, some breezy conditions in E CT, maybe some fringe rain bands. Congrats E NE and ME

I think you might be surprised.  I agree with Kevin this has a Gustav look to it. We took a beating here in 2002 on 911. 120k without power mostly our region. 

[512high]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Bar Harbor area could be fun for Lee

Working NH Seacoast on Monday...will I still have large surf, or is this thing going to rapidly move out? Have a friend leaving today for Newfoundland for hunting trip lol

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

All along the Maine coast pushing all that water into the harbors the storm surge could be quite extensive.

Hopefully 6z nam that made a big jump east plays out. That would limit the se fetch in the GOM.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

My rule of thumb for tropical is beware the last minute drift east. Not even thinking of nor’easter climo here. 

Agree with that envelope of possibilities too. Still quite a bit of time to go with this one. 

Siggy Jumps east I can remember.  Bob, Eduardo. Jumps west, Irene ,Belle, Sandy

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I do. Pretty clear 18z was coming NW.

sometimes the smugness about what’s gonna happen is a little much from some folks. This was out to sea by your call all week and even yesterday(good bye and good riddens or something to that degree think you said).  Now you know it’s definitely going east?  Perhaps this time you’re right?  

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Hopefully 6z nam that made a big jump east plays out. That would limit the se fetch in the GOM.

Nam? Seriously?

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

sometimes the smugness about what’s gonna happen is a little much from some folks. This was out to sea by your call all week and even yesterday(good bye and good riddens or something to that degree think you said).  Now you know it’s definitely going east?  Perhaps this time you’re right?  

Roar

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Tried to tell you…saw that coming a mile away. 

If there’s no drought, he struggles.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

sometimes the smugness about what’s gonna happen is a little much from some folks. This was out to sea by your call all week and even yesterday(good bye and good riddens or something to that degree think you said).  Now you know it’s definitely going east?  Perhaps this time you’re right?  

18z euro was coming NW. it was clear to many. Yep the jog west surprised me, but again, this lacks the big features imo for a big region wide impact. Could it happen? I suppose, but I give it a small chance. For the record I haven’t been far off from the NHC so you can bash them too. I don’t forecast with weenie emotions. I’ve been doing this for many many years. 

[Ginx snewx]

Tight look. Definitely problems with excessive rain in areas absolutely drenched

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nam? Seriously?

Reread. I said “hopefully” that track plays out to limit damage in Maine. Not forecasting it even though it’s within the range of outcomes. GL riding your pony.

[CoastalWx]

I feel like my comment yesterday is working out fine. GFS too Far East and euro too far west. In the end a compromise

[HoarfrostHubb]

Trying to reason with hurricane season

Lee seems to be bucking a lot of predicted tendencies.    Hating this storm right now.   Piss or get off the pot sir

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z euro was coming NW. it was clear to many. Yep the jog west surprised me, but again, this lacks the big features imo for a big region wide impact. Could it happen? I suppose, but I give it a small chance. For the record I haven’t been far off from the NHC so you can bash them too. I don’t forecast with weenie emotions. I’ve been doing this for many many years. 

Well that’s the point…that the jog surprised you. That’s all I mean. You certainly know your stuff! 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z euro was coming NW. it was clear to many. Yep the jog west surprised me, but again, this lacks the big features imo for a big region wide impact. Could it happen? I suppose, but I give it a small chance. For the record I haven’t been far off from the NHC so you can bash them too. I don’t forecast with weenie emotions. I’ve been doing this for many many years. 

Right. Looking objectively at the ensemble graphics I posted, the jump west yesterday was significant. Nobody could have taken one euro op run that was an outlier and immediately jump on board. 

Agree that this morphs into a compromise deal. That’s usually how these go. I’m thinking just west of Bangor when all is said and done, leaving a fairly close approach for the Cape. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Trying to reason with hurricane season

Lee seems to be bucking a lot of predicted tendencies.    Hating this storm right now.   Piss or get off the pot sir

Your town doesn’t need any more rain or wind. GL.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Your town doesn’t need any more rain or wind. GL.

Not really expecting much out this way. Some winds but nothing like to the east. 
I had thought the west shifts were done a couple of days ago.    Oopsie 

[Damage In Tolland]

28 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Also why are we treating this like a Nor'Easter forecast with typical west trends 48-72 hours then last second jump east? This is a tropical system?? In my mind anything is possible still with a track over the cape or a track 200 miles east of the cape. 

Been trying to tell them this exact thing 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Right. Looking objectively at the ensemble graphics I posted, the jump west yesterday was significant. Nobody could have taken one euro op run that was an outlier and immediately jump on board. 

Agree that this morphs into a compromise deal. That’s usually how these go. I’m thinking just west of Bangor when all is said and done, leaving a fairly close approach for the Cape. 

Yep agree. I am not ruling out that it comes closer, I just think given everything I see it may tick more east than what the current euro shows. That’s all. Don’t shoot me lol.

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I think you might be surprised.  I agree with Kevin this has a Gustav look to it. We took a beating here in 2002 on 911. 120k without power mostly our region. 

I am telling you.. you can already envision the wtf posts Saturday with winds ripping over 50 mph thruout all of interior SNE with trees and wires dropping . “I thought this was just supposed to be breezy winds “ The 6z nam didn’t show this on Wednesday morning “. Type stuff 

[bristolri_wx]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Right. Looking objectively at the ensemble graphics I posted, the jump west yesterday was significant. Nobody could have taken one euro op run that was an outlier and immediately jump on board. 

Agree that this morphs into a compromise deal. That’s usually how these go. I’m thinking just west of Bangor when all is said and done, leaving a fairly close approach for the Cape. 

Not that it matters that much for anyone who has a tree that falls on their house, but Lee might be barely tropical by the time it gets here.

Biggest risk here is tree damage from higher winds considering all the rain we have gotten before Lee arrives. Should be quite wet and breezy east of the track. I think many will be disappointed by gusts though.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Frances 1961

Just notable for that westward jog before heading east

 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

32 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Also why are we treating this like a Nor'Easter forecast with typical west trends 48-72 hours then last second jump east? This is a tropical system?? In my mind anything is possible still with a track over the cape or a track 200 miles east of the cape. 

 

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Been trying to tell them this exact thing 

 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I am telling you.. you can already envision the wtf posts Saturday with winds ripping over 50 mph thruout all of interior SNE with trees and wires dropping . “I thought this was just supposed to be breezy winds “ The 6z nam didn’t show this on Wednesday morning “. Type stuff 

Lol. Those are not the same “tells”.

[CoastalWx]

Gustav was a much more potent transitions than this will be. This still have warm core characteristics right up to our latitude.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Gustav was a much more potent transitions than this will be. This still have warm core characteristics right up to our latitude.

Which is a red flag to keep expectations in check. I said a few days ago the path to the most impactful wind around here was through a quick extratropical transition.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Which is a red flag to keep expectations in check. I said a few days ago the path to the most impactful wind around here was through a quick extratropical transition.

Nah just go all out. Don’t be so negative.