Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[ineedsnow]

huge shift on the GEFS

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET shifted back E some to a landfall on SW NS 9/16 evening at 970 mb from the 12Z's track into the Bay of Fundy to NB.

[tiger_deF]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

0Z UKMET shifted back E some to a landfall on SW NS 9/16 evening at 970 mb

This goes against my preferred narrative, therefore the UKMET is as garbage as they come and can be completely ignored.

[dryslot]

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

Euro had this thing curving out to sea for days back in the beginning and only had a couple runs that brought his thing near the cape.  Wouldn’t go that far yet. It’s had the largest model swings of all the big models so far lol.  

Yes it has I agree…but the 18z run a few hrs ago was a marked change…and everything else has followed since…that’s more what I meant, which was kind of like the Euro of old a bit.  But as you stated, we’ll hold off on the accolades for a while lol. 

[Rtd208]

Now watch the 00z Euro go east. 

[ineedsnow]

18z and 0z

[Newman]

The lean is almost entirely on the SW side of the envelope of solutions 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

huge shift on the GEFS

Yep

Big

[dryslot]

Lee really slows down when it gets up here too, That's a long time to be in a SE fetch and those winds, There could be some catastrophic damage.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

Now watch the 00z Euro go east. 

Ya the old Euro would never do that…but that wouldn’t surprise me now a days. 

 

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

18z and 0z

That’s a big shift SW…wow. 

[Sn0waddict]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes it has I agree…but the 18z run a few hrs ago was a marked change…and everything else has followed since…that’s more what I meant, which was kind of like the Euro of old a bit.  But as you stated, we’ll hold off on the accolades for a while lol. 

Lol exactly. Would be great for the EURO to be the king again one day though.

[Quincy]

GEFS trend from 18z

[MJO812]

Just now, Quincy said:

GEFS trend from 18z

That's a big shift this close in

[MJO812]

Goodnight weenies

Enjoy watching the Euro

[ineedsnow]

off to bed hope the Euro holds!! 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Quincy said:

GEFS trend from 18z

And stronger too. 
 

On these more SW and W ideas, the storm is stronger and retains much more of its strength and core it seems. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Quincy said:

GEFS trend from 18z

SW and slightly stronger. We’ll see what the euro does. 

[Quincy]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

And stronger too. 
 

On these more SW and W ideas, the storm is stronger and retains much more of its strength and core it seems. 

Yup. Less phasing and interaction with the trough. Retains more tropical characteristics. 

Need to see if I can fix that gif

[GaWx]

Meteo-France's Arpege big shift W from 12Z's Bay of Fundy/NB to 0Z's C ME

[George001]

Another couple ticks and there’s a low over my noggin. It’s a little more west than I thought, but there’s no reason to panic and and overreact. It’s just a low, it’s really not a big deal. We get lows plowing inland all the time. What’s so special about this storm? It’s just a run of the mill windy rainstorm, nothing we aren’t used to in New England. 

[GaWx]

0Z JMA tracks just E of Cape Cod to landfall WC ME late 9/16.

[WxWatcher007]

18z GFS 925mb winds

(again, this doesn't all mix down)

 

00z GFS 

[WxWatcher007]

Not related to the forecast portion, but just look at the size of Lee as it begins to turn. 

[GaWx]

0Z Euro 72 is 75 miles NW of 12Z 84

[GaWx]

0Z Euro 96 close to 12Z Euro 108 after passing 100 miles E of CC

[GaWx]

0Z Euro landfall E ME at 102 hours very early 9/17 975 mb

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z Euro 96 close to 12Z Euro 108 after passing 100 miles E of CC

Yeah pretty close. Maybe a tick east of 18z but west of 12z. Ensembles next. 

[WxWatcher007]

[CCHurricane]

GFS Ensemble Comparison.

12z vs. 18z vs 00z