Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[Normandy]

Jesus man this storm is either gonna hit y’all and be the end of y’all.  Or miss y’all and be the end of y’all.  These models are wild!

[ineedsnow]

CMC took a huge jump west 

[dryslot]

Thats a major cave on the GFS towards the Euro

[Ginx snewx]

This isn't good

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Definitely a lot more interesting for eastern New England.

The SW tics are probably not done yet…ridging getting more pronounced now…

[Newman]

Boston College playing #3 FSU at home at 12 on Saturday lol

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

This isn't good

and probably not done trending yet either

[MJO812]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

The SW tics are probably not done yet…ridging getting more pronounced now…

Bluewave has brought this up many times how the models have underestimated the southeast ridge due to the warm ocean temps.

[Sn0waddict]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

The SW tics are probably not done yet…ridging getting more pronounced now…

Maybe but we have seen over corrections and late ticks east before.  My gut tells me this ends up pretty much right where it’s modeled right now. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Newman said:

Boston College playing #3 FSU at home at 12 on Saturday lol

Hope they have a good ground game......lol

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Still NBD WOR.

It’s getting there pretty quickly though..that would be another 1-2” of rain on the GFS here as currently modeled. And I’m East of you by a good 20 miles. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

The SW tics are probably not done yet…ridging getting more pronounced now…

It can only go so far west. A LF into SNE ain’t happening. 

[MJO812]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It can only go so far west. A LF into SNE ain’t happening. 

Never say never 

 

[Ginx snewx]

Hurricane warnings Cape TS to Montauk 5AM????.Seems likely

[dryslot]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It can only go so far west. A LF into SNE ain’t happening. 

One is looking more likely here now.

[Quincy]

Another bump or two like this and big yikes 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

Maybe but we have seen over corrections and late ticks east before.  My gut tells me this ends up pretty much right where it’s modeled right now. 

 

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It can only go so far west. A LF into SNE ain’t happening. 

Lol…as of 12z today it was Nova Scotia for sure.  This morning it was good bye and adios for NE…yesterday it was congrats Bermuda….folks never learn. 

[ineedsnow]

judging by hr42 GEFS will be west

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Bluewave has brought this up many times how the models have underestimated the southeast ridge due to the warm ocean temps.

Latent heat release also…

[Newman]

GEFS should follow suit with the op run, to no surprise. Through hr48 already slower and the trough is lifting out/less interaction with Lee

[MJO812]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Latent heat release also…

That's why I keep getting screwed during the winter lol

[MJO812]

Just now, Newman said:

GEFS should follow suit with the op run, to no surprise. Through hr48 already slower and the trough is lifting out/less interaction with Lee

Margot also more NE. 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, Newman said:

GEFS should follow suit with the op run, to no surprise. Through hr48 already slower and the trough is lifting out/less interaction with Lee

The trough has been the key on the last couple model cycles, The slower solutions along with a weaker fleeting trough lifting north gives Lee the room to come west.

[WxWatcher007]

 

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Thats a major cave on the GFS towards the Euro

It really is. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, dryslot said:

The trough has been the key on the last couple model cycles, The slower solutions along with a weaker fleeting trough gives Lee the room to come west.

Thibgs coming into better view now…that couldn’t be resolved earlier. As we said yesterday and Sunday…there would be changes going forward.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 

Lol…as of 12z today it was Nova Scotia for sure.  This morning it was good bye and adios for NE…yesterday it was congrats Bermuda….folks never learn. 

Don’t just look at the model output verbatim. Sure, the combo of the initial front moving out faster and a slower cyclone is giving this room to come west but there’s another shortwave over the GL that swings another trough through the OV and kicks it east. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

It really is. 

Euro gaining some credit back maybe…be nice to see. 

[Sn0waddict]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Euro gaining some credit back maybe…be nice to see. 

Euro had this thing curving out to sea for days back in the beginning and only had a couple runs that brought his thing near the cape.  Wouldn’t go that far yet. It’s had the largest model swings of all the big models so far lol.  

[dryslot]

Lee on these last few model runs is also tracking close to 68W on these tracks too

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Don’t just look at the model output verbatim. Sure, the combo of the initial front moving out faster and a slower cyclone is giving this room to come west but there’s another shortwave over the GL that swings another trough through the OV and kicks it east. 

Good point…but we’ll see what happens. I personally didn’t think we’d see this trend happen(I knew it was a possibility but low chance) actually if I’m being honest. And I don’t think we’re done seeing the westward shifts with this now. JMO.