Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[ineedsnow]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

JMA FTW?

NAVGEM from a few days ago lol

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Coming in from the southeast would be historically rare if not unique

That would be one hell of a surge too.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

NAVGEM from a few days ago lol

Every model… every single one of them has at one time or another depicted this thing coming in from the south south east into southern New England up thru coastal Maine.

none have been able to sustain that depiction across subsequent runs

[Diggiebot]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That would be one hell of a surge too.

Cape cod bay would fill up and magnify that surge sandwich to Brewster wrecked 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, kdxken said:

What good is a forecaster if they change their tune every 3 hours? I give him credit.  

Im Not saying that Ken…I’m saying if other guidance moves in the direction of the Euro and now it’s ensembles….he will be changing his tune…you can bet on that. For the time being(and 3 hrs ago) that’s his call, and I can respect that. His ideas could end up being right….or they could NOT. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not to mention this thing will be crawling. Epic coastal issues with New Moon Goon

Not quite Sandy But the amount of water this would move if it came Nw and landfalls Like some of those ensembles showed ..would be higher than many think and effect most of SE and E facing New England beaches due to that huge fetch and angle of approach 

[Quincy]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Coming in from the southeast would be historically rare if not unique

Even if this thing stays east and skirts Maine, that’s an ugly look for the coast from the Cape, right up to Maine. The guidance I’m looking at retains a fairly robust wind core on the west side. Pretty remarkable for this latitude. 

Using the SREF as a sample because I like the tighter graphic, but even the EPS mean wind field is fairly symmetrical and largely intact on the west side. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

 

13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

NAVGEM from a few days ago lol

Also the Machine learning (A.I) models that were posted 3-4 days ago Tucked up toward Chatham 

[ineedsnow]

FWIW out to hour 20 the NAM is way slower

[Cyclone-68]

I have a hunch the flooding that could result might be the greatest legacy from this. And with another inch or two (at least) added to what has been a record setting summer rainfall could potentially become a very serious situation. And if some strong wind gusts come on top of that, that’s the proverbial icing on the cake..

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

 

Also the Machine learning (A.I) models that were posted 3-4 days ago Tucked up toward Chatham 

ya forgot about those never saw if they were updated though curious to know if the kept the same track

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

 

Also the Machine learning (A.I) models that were posted 3-4 days ago Tucked up toward Chatham 

That’d be pretty frieky if this ends up going that way…And those AI models showed that from a ways out there…skynett shit there. 

[WxWatcher007]

Thread really taking off now lol.

Agree with @Quincy and I was alluding to the same earlier. Large and well organized wind field currently, with a symmetric presentation of the wind field on the GFS and Euro on closest approach. It’s obviously weaker from a peak wind perspective at our latitude, but the size and organization of the wind field set the stage for a potentially significant coastal event (and inland Maine/NS), with other inland areas at risk for more impacts if this continues westward. 

925 wind repost—that is far from a collapsing system just off the deck as it meanders north. 

 

[Roger]

With Lee possibly coming in from the southeast, what could we expect for a surge here in coastal Maine?

[ineedsnow]

NAM wayyy slower and looking better hmmmm

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, Roger said:

With Lee possibly coming in from the southeast, what could we expect for a surge here in coastal Maine?

Good question . The latitude this backs in at would also be key . 18z euro would send houses floating into Atlantic on plum island and prolly Scituate. You don’t want to discount coastal flooding If a storm thus large actually backed in to about the E  coast  Of sne 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Good question . The latitude this backs in at would also be key . 18z euro would send houses floating into Atlantic on plum island and prolly Scituate. You don’t want to discount coastal flooding If a storm thus large actually backed in to about the E  coast  Of sne 

I don't think as far as i can remember a direct LF of a cane or TS into Maine so it would be unprecedented.

[Roger]

We take a beating here on the York county coast during a typical Nor' Easter. If this hits it will be memorable.

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

NAM wayyy slower and looking better hmmmm

Hmm the NAM can sniff out trends at times…not often, but it does happen now and again(idea of bringing the Mid Atlantic Blizzard of ‘16 further north being one of those times). 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Hmm the NAM can sniff out trends at times…not often, but it does happen now and again(bringing the Blizzard of ‘16 further north being one of those times). 

out to 51 huge difference 

[Quincy]

FWIW, NAM is slower, but the shortwave across New England late week is trending north slightly. This combined with the slower cane movement might allow for a longer northward trajectory, rather than getting pulled out NNE/NE like typical climo?

[dryslot]

As slow as the Nam is, The front will have lifted out of here by the time it gets up here.

[Hoth]

Storm already has a pretty big wind field. Is this thing getting a baroclinic assist up this way?

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Hmm the NAM can sniff out trends at times…not often, but it does happen now and again(idea of bringing the Mid Atlantic Blizzard of ‘16 further north being one of those times). 

That was a beautiful storm

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Hmm the NAM can sniff out trends at times…not often, but it does happen now and again(bringing the Blizzard of ‘16 further north being one of those times). 

Yeah, I wouldn’t compare winter phenomenon with anything that’s  barotropic i.e. the tropics. 

The Nam has a NW bias with cyclone tracks and genesis along baroclinic axes, i.e. the temperature gradient between the Delmarva and southeast Massachusetts. It’s always on the northwest side of that thermal interface.

A tropical entity moving north, and then interacting with the westerlies … it is a completely different animal.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, I wouldn’t compare winter phenomenon with anything that’s  barotropic i.e. the tropics. 

The Nam has a NW bias with cyclone tracks and genesis along baroclinic axes, i.e. the temperature gradient between the Delmarva and southeast Massachusetts. It’s always on the northwest side of that thermal interface.

A tropical entity moving north, and then interacting with the westerlies … it is a completely different animal.

Ok…sorry. Was only meaning it can sometimes sniff out things. But I’ll defer to your expertise on these things. I’m just a casual hobbyist….but I did stay at a holiday inn express last night . 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

We are at peak dopamine drip thanks to 18z euro . Still seems modest chance to me for now 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ok…sorry. Was only meaning it can sometimes sniff out things. But I’ll defer to your expertise on these things. I’m just a casual hobbyist….but I did stay at a holiday inn express last night lol. 

I almost think it was better back in the 2005 to 2010 range… Then it became the “NAM” and it really kind of slip backWard. 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

We are at peak dopamine drip thanks to 18z euro . Still seems modest chance to me for now 

Yes sir. It jolted the thread alive..fun for a bit for all of us. The little piece of the Rug getting pulled at 0z is pretty likely.  

[Sn0waddict]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

We are at peak dopamine drip thanks to 18z euro . Still seems modest chance to me for now 

keep in mind the tick east that almost always tends to happen hah