Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[GaWx]

Is there a NH landfall on record? Anyone know? The 18Z GEFS has one member that just about does that. Also, two of the 18Z EPS come within ~5-10 miles.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Lawdy lawdy lawdy have mercy 

Not yet…gotta see the other guidance buy in on this.  If GFS goes in this direction later, it becomes more believable. If not, it’s the Euro swinging back and forth again(can’t believe we have to even say that about the Euro..so sad). 

[Torch Tiger]

Just now, GaWx said:

Is there a NH landfall on record? Anyone know? The 18Z GEFS has one member that just about does that. Also, two of the 18Z EPS come within ~5-10 miles.

Doubt it's a TC even if the track worked out, but no TC has made landfall that I am aware of.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just the tip?

That's what she said..lol

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Wasn’t Webb talking about this potential today somebody posted…

Don’t they suck…been performing the worst so far with this cane lol.

I don’t know. I’ve seen them perform better than globals, but some of these models are new. So I don’t have experience with them. 

[MJO812]

Wow

[dryslot]

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Not yet…gotta see the other guidance buy in on this.  If GFS goes in this direction later, it becomes more believable. If not, it’s the Euro swinging back and forth again(can’t believe we have to even say that about the Euro..so sad). 

Been overall consistent minus a run or 2 but not much deviation 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Come on more west 

[Hoth]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Is there a NH landfall on record? Anyone know? The 18Z GEFS has one member that just about does that. Also, two of the 18Z EPS come within ~5-10 miles.

The best part is TauntonBlizz is in NH this weekend. Would be absolutely hilarious if he got the eye up there.

[ineedsnow]

onto 0z 

[Ginx snewx]

Not to mention this thing will be crawling. Epic coastal issues with New Moon Goon

[MJO812]

Euro was west at 18z

[ineedsnow]

[Quincy]

SREF is trending west as well ASOUT

On a trajectory for Maine 

[dryslot]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Yeah, Most of those hits are over ME with just a few into NS.

[ineedsnow]

some of those would be really bad for SNE a ton of rain and big gust

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Wow..there’s a lot of members into SNE on that….hmmmm. 

[kdxken]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

some of those would be really bad for SNE a ton of rain and big gust

Stein says no.

[mob1]

68 W (longitudinal) at our latitude is probably the line for significant impacts on eastern New England. Obviously if it gets even further west, it increases impacts further inland. 

Aside from the Euro, some tropical models have it close enough as well. 

[Quincy]

21z SREF low centers, in weenie range, but:

[CoastalWx]

Stein and Tblizz together 

[WxWatcher007]

That’s quite a bit west, wow. 

Time to break out the good stuff. 

Latest error guidance from UAlbany. There are still some fairly significant errors at medium to short range. 

 

The GFS and Euro meanwhile, have gone in different directions in recent days. The difference is that lately the GFS has ticked west from its easternmost solution. Doesn’t mean it’ll adopt what the Euro is trying to do, but each successive cycle becomes important because the errors in the magnitude of the steering pattern should diminish—even if we’re tracking 20-40 mile shifts at close range. 

 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Stein says no.

That was 3 hrs ago…things might be a changing all of a sudden….on to 0z to see if more support comes…

[MJO812]

JMA FTW?

[NW_of_GYX]

38 minutes ago, dryslot said:

3-4" qpf on the mean is a lot.

This summer, lock it. jfc wake me up in February 

[NW_of_GYX]

Maine DOT obliterated 

[Typhoon Tip]

40 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well you got some support from its own ensembles…does that count? 

Yes

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That was 3 hrs ago…things might be a changing all of a sudden….on to 0z to see if more support comes…

What good is a forecaster if they change their tune every 3 hours? I give him credit.  

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Wow..there’s a lot of members into SNE on that….hmmmm. 

Coming in from the southeast would be historically rare if not unique