Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

23 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Hitting up my local beach on Thursday (Higgins).  Sage advice for those who only swim/body surf in optimal summer conditions.

Should have some big swells , should be a lot of 4-6 footers with the occasional (holy shiat) where did that monster set come from as the day goes on they build 

[Ginx snewx]

New moon goon

[Ginx snewx]

45 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’m @ misquamicut beach today and tomorrow , had some fun with a consistent waist high swell today with occasional head high sets (just bodysurfing ) . Remember folks no lifeguards @ beach so if you go in stay alert (nobody else is probably going in but me lol) and look for rip currents (they aren’t hard to identify ) in light wind conditions 

be heading to RI Friday and Hampton (NH) sat for the real big stuff 

FYI Pickles being modest , he saved a life today, man in a rip.

[dryslot]

Front looks to be lifting out a bit quicker over the NE on the 18z Euro then 12z, May allow Lee to tick west this run.

[PowderBeard]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

would it be worth going to eastport for this?

Eastport is pretty great. We went out there for a couple days last month. Lubec would be more exposed to the wind and surge.

[Ginx snewx]

Rut roh

[dryslot]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Rut roh

Yup

[Damage In Tolland]

Oh boy 

[PowderBeard]

[Ginx snewx]

Still heading NNW

[kdxken]

50 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah he knows his stuff, but it's a broad statement.  'concerns it's possibly headed towards new england..' fine but even if it's a minor couple hour wobble, it verifies. 

Agreed but better than a lot of them. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Still heading NNW

 

[Ginx snewx]

Hmm Euro actually deepens from 960 to 956 hr 87 to 90

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not making a forecast 5 days out . What I see now in terms of huge gradient .. warm day and cold aloft.. it seems 50+ is possible for most locations . Need to see what slp is Fri morning 

At this time, I would stick close to 40-45 gust range until confident of 925 mb winds and mixing potential.  Using some of the basic rules we'd use for predicting strong winds on the backside of nor'easters is the way to go.  I remember Gustav and it's not a bad analog if mixing continues to look good.  Given saturated ground surfaces and fully leafed out trees, issues will arise if we see consistent winds 40+.  Assuming it has started it's transition when it approaches the latitude of the Cape, I think the strong wind expansion due the gradient tightening will make into at least eastern CT... more uncertain further west.  Still pieces of the puzzle to figure out.

[WinterWolf]

Off hr runs always seem to do something wonky more often than not…only to snap back the other way at 0z and 12z….is this just one of those times?  Or is the Euro finally on to something? 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

At this time, I would stick close to 40-45 gust range until confident of 925 mb winds and mixing potential.  Using some of the basic rules we'd use for predicting strong winds on the backside of nor'easters is the way to go.  I remember Gustav and it's not a bad analog if mixing continues to look good.  Given saturated ground surfaces and fully leafed out trees, issues will arise if we see consistent winds 40+.  Assuming it has started it's transition when it approaches the latitude of the Cape, I think the strong wind expansion due the gradient tightening will make into at least eastern CT... more uncertain further west.  Still pieces of the puzzle to figure out.

My head is there too right now. A lot to figure out as you said. More impactful obviously if this takes a more Euro vs GFS track.

I think ET is going as soon as this crosses the northern wall of the Gulf Stream. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Off hr runs always seem to do something wonky more often than not…only to snap back the other way at 0z and 12z….is this just one of those times?  Or is the Euro finally on to something? 

Multi day trend though has been for the Euro/Ensembles to be west. It’s still an outlier relative to all the other guidance, which is why the NHC track is what it is, but it’s totally within the realm of reasonable outcomes IMO for the center of Lee to make a very close approach to the Cape. 

[CoastalWx]

18z euro is interesting. I just need more support.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

18z euro is interesting. I just need more support.

Get a brassiere?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

18z euro is interesting. I just need more support.

Athletic?

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Multi day trend though has been for the Euro/Ensembles to be west. It’s still an outlier relative to all the other guidance, which is why the NHC track is what it is, but it’s totally within the realm of reasonable outcomes IMO for the center of Lee to make a very close approach to the Cape. 

Oh I agree Don, it’s certainly reasonable.  Just saying that many times the off hr runs do something different for some reason. But it’s certainly plausible this could be seeing what’s going to possibly happen too.  

[dryslot]

If the front weakens and lifts out sooner like the 18z Euro did going forward, And if Lee is slower on the GFS, Then there is room for Lee to come west.

[DavisStraight]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Get a brassiere?

Manzier

[PowderBeard]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

If the front weakens and lifts out sooner like the 18z Euro did going forward, And if Lee is slower on the GFS, Then there is room for Lee to come west.

0z watch party at Gritty McDuffs?

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Manzier

Sinfeld lol.

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Manzier

 

[dryslot]

Just now, PowderBeard said:

0z watch party at Gritty McDuffs?

I'm already prepping and planning for power outages, Not going to take much wind with all the soft ground and leafed trees to topple.

[DavisStraight]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I'm already prepping and planning for power outages, Not going to take much wind with all the soft ground and leafed trees to topple.

It's been consistently affecting you guys in Maine. To what degree changes.

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm already prepping and planning for power outages, Not going to take much wind with all the soft ground and leafed trees to topple.

West or east, it’s going to be an event up there. 

[PowderBeard]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm already prepping and planning for power outages, Not going to take much wind with all the soft ground and leafed trees to topple.

Agreed. I hit up Hannaford today and got an extra tank of propane.