Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like euro will be east judging by hr 66 compared to 00z. No surprise there.

looks almost the same to me

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

looks almost the same to me

It's a little east. Not by a whole lot. Maybe 40 miles. But meh outside the cape.

[ineedsnow]

so much different then other models

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

so much different then other models

It's going to compromise and be meh for many.

[CoastalWx]

Definitely more than 40nm when it starts getting to the Cape latitude and into GOM. 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It's going to compromise and be meh for many.

still 4 days plus days out I wouldnt say that yet

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

still 4 days plus days out I wouldnt say that yet

I think we laid out the reasons though. I don't have an issue saying it. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeeah... < than 5 days is open to dialogue/skepticism.  I mean it's no longer futile to engage in that analysis.

You know I had coined the phrase 'predictive event horizon' - meaning that position and intensity forecasts beyond that point in time/extrapolations were so open to variability as to be essentially no skill. 

We've gone across that.  We can begin to  shed some solutions which narrows the goal posts

[CoastalWx]

It's probably 40-50+ here verbatim. 

[Torch Tiger]

Swing and a miss

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

still 4 days plus days out I wouldnt say that yet

Did you already cancel the family FL vacay early?

[CoastalWx]

Pretty windy inland too. 925 winds 50 to 60kts even in CT. But again, should that even get that far west.

[CoastalWx]

Just enough to eff up Saturday here with meh results.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just enough to eff up Saturday here with meh results.

My brothers getting married in Pelham NH Saturday. He’s been flipping out.

I’ve been telling him all week it’ll be fine. He won’t listen lol

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

My brothers getting married in Pelham NH Saturday. He’s been flipping out.

I’ve been telling him all week it’ll be fine. He won’t listen lol

It will be breezy. Just a matter of how breezy and if they get rain. I'd lean dry for now.

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty windy inland too. 925 winds 50 to 60kts even in CT. But again, should that even get that far west.

Pressure gradient HWW damage type stuff 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It will be breezy. Just a matter of how breezy and if they get rain. I'd lean dry for now.

It’d be nice to get some breaks to help mix more wind down. 

[bristolri_wx]

30 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

still 4 days plus days out I wouldnt say that yet

Just because something is possible doesn't mean it's going to happen.  There's a very high probability that this will be a nothing-burger for most, if not all, of New England.  There is a very low probability of other outcomes.  The NHC forecasts have been outlining this for a while now.

[weatherwiz]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It will be breezy. Just a matter of how breezy and if they get rain. I'd lean dry for now.

Maybe instead of tossing the flowers at the end, the NWS can supply them with a weather balloon and they can toss that instead  

[GaWx]

Two additional 12Z op runs:

UKMET: Bay of Fundy/NB early 9/17

Meteo-France: Bay of Fundy/NB 9/16 PM

[WeatherHappens]

I've said all along I'd be happy with a strong "Nor'Easter"

[DavisStraight]

We have our year end golf tournament Sat but it's in central CT, I told the guys we're good.

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

WE have our year end gold tournament Sat but it's in central CT, I told the guys we're good.

Yeah other than some breezy conditions not much of an issue for most of CT

[WinterWolf]

53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pressure gradient HWW damage type stuff 

Ya…probably not. Lol. 

[CT Rain]

May have to watch the mixing on the back side of the storm. With a decent pressure gradient if we're able to keep the sun we could see some fairly good northwesterly gusts even inland. 

Even the GFS has ~40 knots at the top of the mixed layer back here.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty windy inland too. 925 winds 50 to 60kts even in CT. But again, should that even get that far west.

Is that going to mix down though?

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Did you already cancel the family FL vacay early?

my brother has covid down there so changed until October.. hes good though just want to have a good time and not a sick time lol we go down a bunch anyway

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Is that going to mix down though?

I could see 40kts or so like Ryan mentioned.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I could see 40kts or so like Ryan mentioned.

Hopefully some tipped over lawn furniture in Tolland!  

[Chrisrotary12]

21 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

We have our year end golf tournament Sat but it's in central CT, I told the guys we're good.

I have mine in Bedford, MA. Hoping its howling.