Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[CoastalWx]

Better chance Brady suits up as Jets QB than the 00z Euro.

[weatherwiz]

I wouldn't be surprised if Lee falls apart more quickly than what the GFS has. If it ingests drier air into the core it will fade quickly and there is plenty of dry air around. Inner core maintains pretty well though and it fights it off for a while. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

What model will Kevin be using now that the hurricane models he was championing are near Bermuda?

[MJO812]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

What model will Kevin be using now that the hurricane models he was championing are near Bermuda?

It's over

Onto the next ghost chase

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

It's over

Onto the next ghost chase

This was a ghost chase from the beginning for anyone rooted in reality

[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The very active 0Z EPS still had only (4) 8% of members hit the US outside of ME. The 6Z EPS had 11 (22%)! That is by far the highest % with US landfalls outside of ME for any EPS.

Let’s see what 12z EPS does. It’s one of those things where if it’s the op without meaningful ensemble support you can toss, but with that much support you toss but kind of hold the trash can open wondering if you made a mistake. 

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS will be west as compared to 00z. Probably not like Euro.

 

My guess is a compromise, but not sure that is exciting for many.

Will’s comment is evergreen. 100-150 west miles for interesting. It can happen at this range, but a compromise as it currently stands doesn’t get it done. Coastal NS in trouble.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Tropical is hard in New England in the best cases. This system isn’t even meeting a lot of the bare minimum requirements to give it a real shot up here. Flags everywhere 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Tropical is hard in New England in the best cases. This system isn’t even meeting a lot of the bare minimum requirements to give it a real shot up here. Flags everywhere 

Red or Yellow?

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This was a ghost chase from the beginning for anyone rooted in reality

Wrong. It’s not black or white hit or ghost chase. Not with this one. Franklin/Idalia sure.

We wouldn’t say that in winter for most of what pops and it’s definitely not true in tropical when you’re looking at ensemble and op runs inside 100 hours. 

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'm hoping to gust to 25mph with the CAA.

At this point I'd be seriously happy with that - anything to scour out this scunge stasis of atmosphere.

[WxWatcher007]

It may very well slide east and impact NS (where we have posters btw) giving NE nothing but rough seas, but this isn’t like it’s sliding a thousand miles east and that was the D10 prog, D7 prog, and D5 prog and never moved. 

Our return time for anything interesting is what it is for a reason, but we can near miss just like Charleston, Miami, Tampa, New Orleans, and Houston do all the time too. Close calls with plenty of uncertainty is a hallmark of tropical no matter where you are, and this is a legitimate close call. 

[CoastalWx]

There is truth to what Tip said, a little change here or there is the 00z Euro vs GFS guidance. It won't take much. However, based on what I see.....this is just a bit outside. We really don't have the climo look of a deep H5 trough to bring it closer. I know the Atlantic H5 setup also is unusual, but to me there isn't enough of a capture. NS will take a good hit though.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

It may very well slide east and impact NS (where we have posters btw) giving NE nothing but rough seas, but this isn’t like it’s sliding a thousand miles east and that was the D10 prog, D7 prog, and D5 prog and never moved. 

Our return time for anything interesting is what it is for a reason, but we can near miss just like Charleston, Miami, Tampa, New Orleans, and Houston do all the time too. Close calls with plenty of uncertainty is a hallmark of tropical no matter where you are, and this is a legitimate close call. 

Great post, but you know how it goes...if someone's backyard isn't aligned for something it just because pages and pages of tirade and crap. We all like to have fun and it probably goes overboard because many of us have known each other for years but the discussions really get watered down. Think of how many people on here and come here to try and learn and understand...they're heads probably spin because the discussions can turn so chaotic with one person saying one thing and someone else saying something the complete opposite. It's unfortunate for those less knowledgeable wanting to learn b/c how are they supposed to interpret that. 

Tropical is something I am not very knowledgeable in but I have gained quite a bit of knowledge in the last few years from some of the tropical threads and events. Hell, I think I even learned a quite a bit from the Lee discussion, but for someone really wanting to learn and understand they have to suffer through crap.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Lee and Nigel gone on gfs. The bright side is all the coc coming overnight wed so get out and enjoy it. 

[WxWatcher007]

I’m not talking about the posting, I’m just level setting. It’s about 250 miles as the crow flies between the Cape and SW tip of Nova Scotia. 4-5 days out that’s still a lot of room for movement just looking at the average NHC basin error. West or east. 

Whether it ends up boring in or backyards or not that’s pretty close at this range. 

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It may very well slide east and impact NS (where we have posters btw) giving NE nothing but rough seas, but this isn’t like it’s sliding a thousand miles east and that was the D10 prog, D7 prog, and D5 prog and never moved. 

Our return time for anything interesting is what it is for a reason, but we can near miss just like Charleston, Miami, Tampa, New Orleans, and Houston do all the time too. Close calls with plenty of uncertainty is a hallmark of tropical no matter where you are, and this is a legitimate close call. 

'Statistical interpretation' is a kind of interpretive art, too.  

I mean, from a much larger perspective ... does Lee count in our 'return rate' ?

Unless we want to bake the concept of being exact to region in our return spatial domain - but that's less realistic. Is nature too messy for that?

What I mean is, it's like wiser to suspect  that if one were to observe ... say 5 TC's over 50 years, that were above the 90th percentile of having dodged all the reasons not to come here, those that struck were all part of those 5 - not all 5 did. 

In the end, I wonder about the futility of the return rate stuff, at all.   I mean, you could get 1938 to happen twice in 10 years, than not see it for 780 years, then have it happen 8 times in a some future two -decade span, one might be inclined to think that means every 108 years.  mmm

It really means that every once in a time span, there is a flurry of them. Moreover, the setting/cause for the flurries seem to be random distribution.

 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

'Statistical interpretation' is a kind of interpretive art, too.  

I mean, from a much larger perspective ... does Lee count in our 'return rate' ?

Unless we want to bake the concept of being exact to region in our return spatial domain - but that's less realistic. Is nature too messy for that?

What I mean is, it's like wiser to suspect you get say 5 TC's over 50 years that were above the 90th percentile of having dodged reasons not to come here.  And all those that strike, were one of those 5. 

In the end, I wonder about the futility of the return rate stuff, at all.   I mean, you could get 1938 to happen twice in 10 years, than not see it for 780 years, then have it happen 8 times in a some future two -decade span, one might be inclined to think that means every 108 years.  mmm

It really means that every once in a time span, there is a flurry of them. Moreover, the setting/cause for the flurries are seem to be random distribution.

 

That’s a valuable insight. I’d say that if Lee doesn’t landfall as a hurricane, it doesn’t make the official return period, but I guess I’m just making the case that this is closer than what we usually track—some named storm that never gets within 500 miles or whatever on any ensemble consistently. 

We’ve actually had some TS hits and close calls recently in NE.

[WxWatcher007]

It looks the 12z GEFS are further west generally. I guess we’re just going to be doing the west east jumps until the messenger shuffle at the end.

[GaWx]

12Z GEFS has one US landfall on Cape Cod vs the 2 MA landfalls on the 6Z. But there are ~7 on ME for a total of ~8 (26%), an increase over the 5 total US landfalls of the 6Z and the 4 total US of the 0Z.

[WinterWolf]

I think Lee is gonna struggle anyway, and weaken substantially by the time there is any landfall up this way or in Atlantic CA, much more so than if he was a powerhouse like he looked like back on Friday. He’s a shell of his former self now, and I don’t think that’s gonna change much the rest of the week. 
 

 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think Lee is gonna struggle anyway, and weaken substantially by the time there is any landfall up this way or in Atlantic CA, much more so than if he was a powerhouse like he looked like back on Friday. He’s a shell of his former self now, and I don’t think that’s gonna change much the rest of the week. 
 

 

Alot of churned up water from prior canes in the way as well.....

[FXWX]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There is truth to what Tip said, a little change here or there is the 00z Euro vs GFS guidance. It won't take much. However, based on what I see.....this is just a bit outside. We really don't have the climo look of a deep H5 trough to bring it closer. I know the Atlantic H5 setup also is unusual, but to me there isn't enough of a capture. NS will take a good hit though.

Agree... It is hard enough to do when we do have a deep trough since many more times than not the timing of the trough is such that it actually acts as a kicker and sends it seaward.   We are trying to get a cane to bend back into the New England coast without a perfectly timed strong trough by using the western Atlantic upper pattern to do the trick... Incredibly hard!  Impossible no, but boy is that a tough thing to do...  most of the time our threats start out south of us at ~73 west and we are hoping they can maintain enough of a north/northeast heading to make it into SNE.  Coming north when starting east of 70 west is not a bet I would ever take.  It is fun watching the models tease us with a few ensemble members jogging west instead of just sending it seaward, but when push comes to shove these systems almost always (not 100%) trend east in the end... NS is still wide-open for trough though...

[dryslot]

Cells are firing around the center of circulation on the NW side of lee now.

[snowwors2]

I’ll be prepped, just in case, here in “upper” DownEast Maine (Harrington, ME)‼️

 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, snowwors2 said:

I’ll be prepped, just in case, here in “upper” DownEast Maine (Harrington, ME)‼️

 

Love it out there. Good luck. 

[GaWx]

 For the second 12Z run in a row, the inferior JMA goes over Cape Cod:
 

 

 Yesterday's 12Z JMA was similar but ~6 hours faster:

[dendrite]

JMA has a harder left hook than Joe Frazier.

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[CoastalWx]

Looks like euro will be east judging by hr 66 compared to 00z. No surprise there.

[Twitching Trucks]

I’ll be prepped, just in case, here in “upper” DownEast Maine (Harrington, ME)
 

From a Beal, and native son of Jonesport; be safe in whatever comes your way.


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