Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[CoastalWx]

6z EPS is a tad E-SE of 00z but close.

[CoastalWx]

Maybe a little slower? Pretty close to 00z.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 hours ago, FXWX said:

Except 38 came abreast of NC... but if you are looking for SNE hurricane action it almost has to have a deep-layered tropical flow precede it...  it's just so hard to get a hurricane tracking north from east of 70w to bend back into New England.  I would never say impossible, but it's tough enough to get a good hit when a storm comes abreast of NC, nevermind just east of 70w.  I haven't had the time to fully research it, but if anyone has map of a similar track that hit SNE, I'd love to see it...

Heh... right.

But my previous was really an attempt at 'seasonal symbolism' ...

The point of 1938 antecedence is like that year was Russian sort of roulette. They clicked the trigger one too many times.   Maybe we're doing something similar this year.  I recall we've discussed at a couple points along the way, this propensity to reload the +PNAP ( not necessarily the same as the "PNA").  At a very foundation level ... that tendency is perhaps a precursor.

I was just looking at a chart someone has posted in the Climate Change forum that described the summer temperature departures and no surprising,

This nicely reflects expectation for/when having a +PNAP reloading summer.  Like, gee - where's the trough, Waldo.  Meanwhile, the modest warmth along the East Coast and New England is more indicative of ... well, what we are observing right now: we are on the E side of that circulation mode and we are stuck in a 'sultry wet summer'.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

This thing has been in an ERC for days . Hurricane models nailed that days ago . After it’s rapid strengthening Friday and then weakening Saturday , it’s never been able to get itself looking classic again. Maybe for a few hours late weekend . It’s been under jet fuel for days and can’t sort itself out . 
 

Can anyone explain meteorologically why it hasn’t been able to complete its ERC and why the inner eye wall won’t just give up . 

[dryslot]

There's a few more members SE of the mean on the 06z EPS from 0z, But once again, The off hour runs have been different for quite some time, I would wait to see 12z.

[Sn0waddict]

Not seeing any real support for the euro here.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

Not seeing any real support for the euro here.

Smart folks yesterday told us to use the hurricane models and to toss the globals, so here we are...whiff. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Smart folks yesterday told us to use the hurricane models and to toss the globals, so here we are...whiff. 

Yeah I don't buy euro one bit.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I don't buy euro one bit.

Tossed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This system is one giant "nothing to see here", as I have maintained all week long. Upside is a nor 'easter.

[SouthCoastMA]

yeah 6z euro a shift east - no biggie here, breezy with some heavy surf

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

yeah 6z euro a shift east - no biggie here, breezy with some heavy surf

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This thing has been in an ERC for days . Hurricane models nailed that days ago . After it’s rapid strengthening Friday and then weakening Saturday , it’s never been able to get itself looking classic again. Maybe for a few hours late weekend . It’s been under jet fuel for days and can’t sort itself out . 
 

Can anyone explain meteorologically why it hasn’t been able to complete its ERC and why the inner eye wall won’t just give up . 

This explanation isn't very technical, but some systems just never entirely recover from major disruption to the core....almost akin to athletes that suffer a major injury (Hi, Arron). It began that EWRC right as it endured that significant shear period...and then I saw that "skunked" banded structure and said "Lee is done with RI". I if you recall on Saturday night, that is when that moron attacked me for having an agenda.

[Typhoon Tip]

The issue with the Euro isn't really hugely bad model performance - or that which is perceived to be before the fact, ha.  

It is that we are hyper focused on very small variance in position, because that actually matters  (this is a philosophy/reality post). A 200 mi shift E vs W is the difference between partly sunny with a gust to 25 or 30 mph from the N along the beaches, ...upwelling cold water and ending the swimming season, vs lashing the eastern zones with sustained 38 and gusts perhaps to storm force, and possibly also becoming a primed flood risk as far back west as ORH-CON. 

However, this is still D4.5 ... so, 200 mi of error at D5 is actually 'better' than the performance target by NHC themselves.  So, calling out the Euro as a big piece of useless shit and saying 'what's happened to the fallen' angel and whatever is an over-application of fault finding due to the former.  People want two aspects:  accuracy now (that can't really be assured), and elation at the possibility as it is illustrated in the model runs.  They are very good at sniffing out 'false illustrations,' but that is no different than a NARCAN rescue arguing with the life saver for ruining their high.  So they trash the model ...

There should be real evaluation that isn't too excoriating at this range - not yet.  If the Euro persists with this solution and shorter than 72 hours, and then fails... then it becomes a matter for more rational analysis as to what went wrong. 

[CoastalWx]

It's had some shear and dry air issues which doesn't help. Been trying to ever so slightly improve.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have a working theory that some of it has to do with the quality of the ambient environment at the onset of an EWRC.....that shear kicked in right as the EWRC took place, and it never recovered fully. Almost like when mental illness results from being overwhelmed by a psychosocial stressor(s) during a period of increased vulnerability. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/9/2023 at 7:14 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think RI is done for Lee.

 

On 9/9/2023 at 8:24 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is certainly a chance this still hits as far back as the cape...just because I don't favor that, it is a viable outcome. I'm not pushing any agenda. Not sure what that was all about.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

06z Euro looked to have bumped E a little

[Ginx snewx]

Go ahead toss the Euro....just sayin

[Ginx snewx]

96 hrs 0Z 90 hrs 6Z

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

96 hrs 0Z 90 hrs 6Z

all other models are faster

[Ginx snewx]

Euro 6 Z Ens

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Save a pony?

[forkyfork]

the euro is west of everything else? wow

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have a working theory that some of it has to do with the quality of the ambient environment at the onset of an EWRC.....that shear kicked in right as the EWRC took place, and it never recovered fully. Almost like when mental illness results from being overwhelmed by a psychosocial stressor(s) during a period of increased vulnerability. 

Don't disagree in general. 

The 'stress' of (shear+ EWR)/2   results in functional citizen that still has PTSD triggers.  LOL.

Anyway ... I have almost never seen a hurricane achieve the same wind max post a EWR, regardless of particular case stresses. They are almost always slightly to more obviously not as deep in the pressure well, while also slightly to more obviously weaker with wind fields.  But here is the interesting thing - they are not "weaker" cyclones.  By spreading their cyclostrophic energy over a broader area, post EWR, they actually have the same or even greater ISE.

There's a physical reason for that, which can be explained in relatively simple terminology.

The EWR is a way to spread the gradient out in all directions.  If a hurricane reaches a deep well in the atmosphere at a small to mid-sized t-cyclone, this can become too intensely unbalanced against the ambient atmospheric pressure surrounding the storm.  The centrifugal force that 'opens up the eye' is overwhelmed. 

But the ongoing storm's momentum/mechanics are conserved ... so a resolution to this problem is the EWR.  By widening the eye, no longer exceeds some critical ratio of surrounding pressure medium with respect to the core - and the circulation stabilizes at a larger size - lower wind velocity, around a larger circumference achieves the same ISE ( or even more) but is 'balanced' against the surrounding storm medium.

So it is a bit technical ... but I tried to tone it down.   

So, ...this is where your shear showed up. It sort of intervened at that critical vulnerable time.  The storm got larger, but the core disruption can't find the post EWR stable attributes because it's partially uncoupled within the total circulation manifold -  this part is a bit more suppositional. 

Doesn't mean Lee won't 'reconnect' and fall back in love... ( 115 is a better relationship than I've ever found!)  But it's moving slow.  I wonder what the thermocline is in that region and if it can whirl around at 110 mph forever without it up chucking colder water and choking in its own vomit.

[ineedsnow]

inner eye seems wrapped in storms again and dry air being pushed out

[WxWatcher007]

Agree with the other ERC comments, and it’s also true that sometimes rather than fully contracting and trying to reach a new peak in winds, a storm will use its reorganization to expand the wind field. That seems to be the case here. It did get close to C4 again at one point, but then the wind field just kept expanding. It’s dramatically larger than before. 

[kdxken]

34 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Go ahead toss the Euro....just sayin

 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

inner eye seems wrapped in storms again and dry air being pushed out

Mid upper level vortex appears to be rotating at a disproportionately slower speed than the llv.

I'm wondering if by some small but perhaps crucial amount, this thing's low to mid level structure is modestly uncoupled. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I kind of like these recent runs by these HAFS-A and "B

Aligning track that's a compromise, they bend back but also ...weakening dramatically - as they should - for passing N of the G-string out there and spending some 250 naut miles over mid 60s SSTs.

They still bring a 975-ish low somewhere N or NE off the outer arm of the Cape, but filling pretty quickly, the wind field is probably not really being experienced very much more than 5 miles inland - and considering the stable land air source being pulled in, it's lifting a lot of that edge moment off the deck at the beaches themselves.  something like that... 

This thing's bigger more obvious discussion headline really should be about the 20 ft curling bombs with white foam momentum running up and over shore roads.   Maybe even foisting a boulder or two up onto the street.    (taking liberty with description here)