Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[OceanStWx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

This is it

Early prep for winter backlash disappointment. 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Lee looks like landfall in down east ME.

For the record per NHC, the core moved over far W NS and center is now over Bay of Fundy. So, officially no US center landfall in case anyone is wondering:

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

The core of Lee briefly moved across Long Island in Western Nova 
Scotia within the past hour or so. Satellite images and surface 
observations indicate that the center is now over the Bay of Fundy. 
Rain bands continue to spread across portions of Maine, New 
Brunswick, and Nova Scotia as seen in radar images. A pair of ASCAT 
passes from several ago showed that Lee remains very large, but the 
core winds have decreased below hurricane-force. Considering some 
undersampling of that data, the initial intensity was lowered to 60 
kt on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory.

The forward motion of Lee is slower than earlier today as it 
moves near the west coast of Nova Scotia. However, the storm is 
expected to turn northeastward and accelerate late tonight and 
Sunday, bringing the system across the Canadian Maritimes. Little 
change was made to the previous NHC track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 44.5N 66.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 17/0600Z 46.5N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[GaWx]

[SJonesWX]

Bunch of leaves and dead branches in the yard 

[weatherwiz]

There were 90K+ without power in Maine so it couldn’t have been that meh. I mean meh isn’t going to cause 90,000+ power outages 

[Modfan2]

NBC News trying to sell Lee

 

 

[Torch Tiger]

shocking

[FXWX]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There were 90K+ without power in Maine so it couldn’t have been that meh. I mean meh isn’t going to cause 90,000+ power outages 

Probably the most over used term on the board; second to only stein...

[ineedsnow]

5 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Guy was out in Hampton with a jet ski , looked fun . As long as it doesn’t stall out 

I saw that guy he was nuts lol

[amc]

28 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There were 90K+ without power in Maine so it couldn’t have been that meh. I mean meh isn’t going to cause 90,000+ power outages 

With how fragile Maine's power grid is a kid blowing out birthday candles will cause a few.....

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I saw that guy he was nuts lol

Was rocking from 11am or so till mid pm

saw a bunch of surfers around the point just south of the wall . Nice clean surf 10-14 foot faces in biggest I would guess 

the nearby Bouy 44098 jacked up as the storm gained enough latitude that the outer cape stopped blocking half the swell energy , and that slow down and pivot of the storm between 6-10 am really Aimed swell producing winds toward N shore of Boston to SE NH (Further east in Maine wasn’t really blocked as much by the cape so they had good swell for last day plus 

[ineedsnow]

26 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Was rocking from 11am or so till mid pm

saw a bunch of surfers around the point just south of the wall . Nice clean surf 10-14 foot faces in biggest I would guess 

the nearby Bouy 44098 jacked up as the storm gained enough latitude that the outer cape stopped blocking half the swell energy , and that slow down and pivot of the storm between 6-10 am really Aimed swell producing winds toward N shore of Boston to SE NH (Further east in Maine wasn’t really blocked as much by the cape so they had good swell for last day plus 

Yup pretty wild day. Made it all worth tracking a storm that wasn't lol

[dryslot]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

This is it

lol

[dendrite]

Only 42mph at IOSN3. They get that with a sea gull fart.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Yup pretty wild day. Made it all worth tracking a storm that wasn't lol

Where did you drive from 

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Yup pretty wild day. Made it all worth tracking a storm that wasn't lol

 it's all we have

[Childude645]

Yup pretty wild day. Made it all worth tracking a storm that wasn't lol

Still fun tracking with you all! Total dud here on Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket aswell. Not even a power outage. And a few downed limbs….

Could anyone explain what happened in the 11th hour that would have reduced severity in SNE and cause minimal rain fall (outside of Chatham and Nantucket’s rainfall)


.

[powderfreak]

Today was definitely a breeze day than normal.  Gusts to 40mph at the bottom of Mansfield at work, on the leeward side with ample mixing.  I wasn’t expecting it to be breezy this far west.

The PWS showed max sustained at 33mph and gust to 44mph.  

[dryslot]

Simple math, 150 miles+ to far east, Results, Meh.

[Torch Tiger]

meh

[powderfreak]

@MaineJayhawk had an incredible photo of a wave exploding up a cliff in Acadia.  Sorry if I’m blowing up your spot, but the power of nature is awesome.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Childude645 said:

Still fun tracking with you all! Total dud here on Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket aswell. Not even a power outage. And a few downed limbs….

Could anyone explain what happened in the 11th hour that would have reduced severity in SNE and cause minimal rain fall (outside of Chatham and Nantucket’s rainfall)


.

Too far east as @dryslot said, weakening cane undergoing a late(ish) ET transition as @40/70 Benchmark talked about. 

For a big hit you need either a strong cane rocketing up the coast, or a trough interaction that provides a baroclinic assist that halts the usual unraveling a la Isaías a few years ago. 

[OceanStWx]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Only 42mph at IOSN3. They get that with a sea gull fart.

We average about 6 storm warnings (48 kt) per year, so I would say we have quite a few more chances to top that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

.09" rainfall.

[weathafella]

Dud for most of New England 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Dud for most of New England 

A disappointment….didn’t hold its strength all to well as we thought.  Storm had about one day that was somewhat memorable…then it went downhill, and never recovered. 

[MaineJayhawk]

7 hours ago, powderfreak said:

@MaineJayhawk had an incredible photo of a wave exploding up a cliff in Acadia.  Sorry if I’m blowing up your spot, but the power of nature is awesome.

Thanks, man!  Yeah, I've seen shots of waves crashing into Otter Cliff before so I had to get it myself to cross off the bucket list.  Wind was around 40mph, rain blowing sideways.  Not optimal conditions for electronics .. haha!  I read that Otter Cliff is 110' high, so you can use that number for a reference 

[tamarack]

8 hours ago, dryslot said:

Simple math, 150 miles+ to far east, Results, Meh.

Only 0.02", least water from a nearby TC that I can recall, but genny had to run 4:10-6:40 PM.  Some road blockages here and there, including a falling tree causing a fire in the lines near Hammond Lumber in Farmington, closing Rt 2 for a while.  From 2-5 PM the wind was 25G40 here with impressive roaring.  Was surprised that only small branches were the only damage near the house.  Highest gusts were similar to those in a decent TS (none this year) but 3 hours of it is harder on the trees than 3-4 gusts.

[ineedsnow]

11 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Where did you drive from 

home.. left for Hampton in the morning stayed until just after high tide ate then went to Salisbury 

[Great Snow 1717]

14 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

There were 90K+ without power in Maine so it couldn’t have been that meh. I mean meh isn’t going to cause 90,000+ power outages 

Agree..