Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[Great Snow 1717]

41 minutes ago, butterfish55 said:

Just got home to find this damage
#wewillrebuild

Better take those barrels in before The Tolland Looters arrive!

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

https://x.com/contentwxguy/status/1702740203469734286?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Cranky cranking it to satellite?

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, Layman said:

Non-meteorologist here (1st post as well...):  is there a formula or other standard to define or predict the reduction in wind speed upon encountering land?

For example, if there are sustained 60mph winds at the coastline, are there high-confidence ways to predict/forecast winds 1 mile, 2 miles, 5 and 10 miles inland?

Where I'm physically situated, and from comments I've seen over the years from others, it seems that forecast gusts rarely reach the speeds predicted in the weather apps.  

Good question with no simple answer.  A few things in play... the friction increase is the most determental item to maintaining the speed you see over the open ocean... also factors such as terrain features, elevation, wide open areas v urban areas, as well as the direction of the wind all play into how much wind speeds will decrease.  Another very important factor is whether or not the low-level atmosphere is stable or not... many times the atmosphere near the coast is more unstable (warmer at the surface through the lower levels of the atmosphere) and this allows the very strong winds often found between 2 and 4 thousand feet to mix down to the surface.  Many times the inland temperature profile is more stable, warms as you go higher into the 2 to 4 thousand foot level.  This prevents the strong winds aloft from mixing down to the surface across inland area. Although high elevations can have an easier time seeing strong winds. The more unstable the lower atmosphere is the easier it is to get the stronger winds to the surface. Most of the time, if I don't think the inland air mass will be unstable (able to mix) I cut modeled land wind gust by 5 to 10% .

[WeatherHappens]

20 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Better take those barrels in before The Tolland Looters arrive!

Be careful over there and watch out for looters.

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Good question with no simple answer.  A few things in play... the friction increase is the most determental item to maintaining the speed you see over the open ocean... also factors such as terrain features, elevation, wide open areas v urban areas, as well as the direction of the wind all play into how much wind speeds will decrease.  Another very important factor is whether or not the low-level atmosphere is stable or not... many times the atmosphere near the coast is more unstable (warmer at the surface through the lower levels of the atmosphere) and this allows the very strong winds often found between 2 and 4 thousand feet to mix down to the surface.  Many times the inland temperature profile is more stable, warms as you go higher into the 2 to 4 thousand foot level.  This prevents the strong winds aloft from mixing down to the surface across inland area. Although high elevations can have an easier time seeing strong winds. The more unstable the lower atmosphere is the easier it is to get the stronger winds to the surface. Most of the time, if I don't think the inland air mass will be unstable (able to mix) I cut modeled land wind gust by 5 to 10% .

This is so good. Many of these factors are in my head whenever I’m chasing. 

[Great Snow 1717]

42 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said:

Be careful over there and watch out for looters.

Let them come..I have a surprise waiting for them....

 

[dryslot]

What a joke at B'js and Hannaford.

[wxeyeNH]

I am surprised that the National Weather Service has not issued a wind advisory for Inland areas. Gray Maine hasn't done it either. It's not like anything is really going to change with the track or intensity of the storm it's not already known so why the delay unless they don't even think it will meet that criteria?

[Layman]

1 hour ago, FXWX said:

Good question with no simple answer.  A few things in play... the friction increase is the most determental item to maintaining the speed you see over the open ocean... also factors such as terrain features, elevation, wide open areas v urban areas, as well as the direction of the wind all play into how much wind speeds will decrease.  Another very important factor is whether or not the low-level atmosphere is stable or not... many times the atmosphere near the coast is more unstable (warmer at the surface through the lower levels of the atmosphere) and this allows the very strong winds often found between 2 and 4 thousand feet to mix down to the surface.  Many times the inland temperature profile is more stable, warms as you go higher into the 2 to 4 thousand foot level.  This prevents the strong winds aloft from mixing down to the surface across inland area. Although high elevations can have an easier time seeing strong winds. The more unstable the lower atmosphere is the easier it is to get the stronger winds to the surface. Most of the time, if I don't think the inland air mass will be unstable (able to mix) I cut modeled land wind gust by 5 to 10% .

Thank you for the detailed reply.  It'll be interesting to see how the winds from this one ultimately play out compared to forecasts.

[Snugharbor]

It was gustier here 4 hours ago than it is now...still breezy but the white caps have diminished quite a bit.

[Sn0waddict]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

How is the JMA looking???

Don’t forget about the SPIRE model

[tunafish]

44 minutes ago, dryslot said:

What a joke at B'js and Hannaford.

in what way?

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, tunafish said:

in what way?

Lines out into the road at BJ's for gas, No parking spaces in the lot at Hannaford.

[tunafish]

Just now, dryslot said:

Lines out into the road at BJ's for gas, No parking spaces in the lot at Hannaford.

sounds like everyone waited until today (which I get - people have busy lives).  PowderBeard was saying 0 action yesterday.

[tunafish]

NE getting the literal shaft.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Lines out into the road at BJ's for gas, No parking spaces in the lot at Hannaford.

But I heard yesterday Mainers don't panic shop 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

But I heard yesterday Mainers don't panic shop 

I went weds because some knew.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I went weds because some knew.

Probably all Masshole transports

[weatherwiz]

maybe getting ready for Pats/Dolphins Sunday night?

[NW_of_GYX]

51 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Probably all Masshole transports

Appreciate the sentiment but not in Lewiston 

[bristolri_wx]

So much for that modeled NW hook/tug. Entirely gone from guidance… due north it is.

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

So much for that modeled NW hook/tug. Entirely gone from guidance… due north it is.

Don’t forget those tweets about latent heat and blah blah.   

 

I think it bends NNW near dawn, but yeah overall north. 

[forkyfork]

the euro/eps can be such trash with these interacting systems

[amarshall]

Just played 9 holes of golf mean streets of Duxbury pre-storm. Felt it was similar to pre-1938.  People going about their business not a care in the world. We will see what tonight brings.  Hopefully, we survive.  Storm party at my house tonight. Liquor store was mobbed. 

[HimoorWx]

"The sea was angry that day, my friends." Nauset Light Beach in Eastham earlier this afternoon.

Sent from my SM-A546U using Tapatalk

[DavisStraight]

5 minutes ago, HimoorWx said:

"The sea was angry that day, my friends." Nauset Light Beach in Eastham earlier this afternoon.

Sent from my SM-A546U using Tapatalk
 

Like an old man returning soup at a deli

[Damage In Tolland]

Good luck on maximizing damage Mainers. We wish we were you . Enjoy it 

[Chrisrotary12]

The first post in the tropical thread regarding a potential Lee was on September 1. What a waste of 15 days. While many knew it would pass east and not landfall, the storm itself was only really worth watching for about 12 hrs.

[dryslot]

15 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

The first post in the tropical thread regarding a potential Lee was on September 1. What a waste of 15 days. While many knew it would pass east and not landfall, the storm itself was only really worth watching for about 12 hrs.

But most did, I'm sure HHH had more potential........

[WxWatcher007]

Final approach.

Not worth hitting the road for this one, but best of luck to all the Mainers and Nova Scotia peeps.