Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[HoarfrostHubb]

37 minutes ago, FXWX said:

We grew up in New Britain as well.  My father described the roofs of 2 and 3 family houses lift off like and pinwheel to the ground like a Frisbee.  In Norfolk, CT at a small historic site there are before and after pictures of the hill sides... almost every oal tree looks like they were just mowed down.  In fact, most of the tall oaks across the interior of the state are post 1938...

I’m sure you have read it, but A Wind to Shake the World has some great accounts

[Zeppy]

G.L..O...R..i..a....

[Torch Tiger]

23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

 

You can imagine the diehard chasers to NS

 

[Torch Tiger]

 

[Snugharbor]

All this Lee talk got me to upload some hurricane docs. Put up a pair of 38 specials, one the WSBE broadcast Wake of 38 (produced in 1978 its pretty dated but has some great stuff in it) along with a decent History Channel special back when it actually aired programming related to history. Lol

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Lee’s core is entirely exposed 

no deep convection really. 

this may be a tropical storm by 40N. 

this thing has been acting like it’s been over marginal heat content about 3  days now. I wonder if it fell victim to its own upwelling

[FXWX]

50 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I’m sure you have read it, but A Wind to Shake the World has some great accounts

I have... I found tremendous old pictorial book of the 38 damage many years ago in a book store in Watch Hill.  It's broken into sections by county and there is at least one picture from every town within each county... 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Nam nest gives  from *outer Cape Cod to Cape Ann along SE NH coast and coastal Maine to Kennebunkport East to Canadian border 50k knot 10m wind gusts by morning Saturday and well inland for Most of Maine 

Winds it down region wide wind wise after 15z Saturday 

[WxWatcher007]

We may be falling back in basketball and soccer, but Team USA tropical forecasting has come a long way. GFS needed a win after Idalia. 

 

[Professional Lurker]

I've got relatives in Calais, Cutler, and Machias. Man, I'd love to take a drive, but alas... it's not in the cards.

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[Ginx snewx]

7 hours ago, FXWX said:

I have... I found tremendous old pictorial book of the 38 damage many years ago in a book store in Watch Hill.  It's broken into sections by county and there is at least one picture from every town within each county... 

 

I have it

[CoastalWx]

Looking forward to a decent Saturday albeit windy. 

[WinterWolf]

This thing is falling apart faster than the Giants did Sunday night. Looks like trash. 

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This thing is falling apart faster than the Giants did Sunday night. Looks like trash. 

ET 60 knot winds hundreds of miles away from center. Might be NS'S Sandy surge wise

[Chrisrotary12]

Lee is down by Bermuda still and already a naked swirl. Dead on arrival.

[CoastalWx]

It’s already practically extra tropical. Looks on track intensity wise. 

[ROOSTA]

NEXT...
So close but no cigar.
A stiff breeze 20-30mph sustained along coastal areas, some gusts to >50.
A little rain, the bands have already detached, moving well to the N and E.
Unfortunately no investment dividend. 10D tracking with only 6-8hrs of blah.
Wave action, good photo op will probably be the only redeeming aspect.   

[WinterWolf]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s already practically extra tropical. Looks on track intensity wise. 

It’ll be lower intensity wise than expected by the time it gets to our latitude, and lower still by the time it gets to Down East Maine and N.S. Imo.   She’s falling apart fast. 

[WinterWolf]

43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

ET 60 knot winds hundreds of miles away from center. Might be NS'S Sandy surge wise

Yes perhaps…that’s a possibility. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’ll be lower intensity wise than expected by the time it gets to our latitude, and lower still by the time it gets to Down East Maine and N.S. Imo.   She’s falling apart fast. 

It won’t be. This is how these systems look. It will keep intensity through baroclinic processes. Basically same processes that we have in nor’easters.

[dryslot]

Lee is massive, Trop warnings here now.

[Warwick WX]

Quick thoughts appreciated for more a mundane matter, now that it appears this is not a life or death storm for New England:

My wife has an all-weekend vendor event on the north RI/MA border tomorrow, and they are apparently not going to postpone Saturday (the flyer says "rain or shine").  However, we've had multiple canopy tents destroyed from wind in the past and don't feel like taking another $120-150 hit from destroying another.  The forecast for the area of the event says NW wind 20-30mph.  A constant 20mph wind is probably ok and towards the upper limit of what we'd deal with.  How likely is it for gusts 30+ mph in interior RI/MA?  The storm is weakening but I'm always concerned with the "expanding wind field" these transitioning storms tend to bring.

TIA.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Warwick WX said:

Quick thoughts appreciated for more a mundane matter, now that it appears this is not a life or death storm for New England:

My wife has an all-weekend vendor event on the north RI/MA border tomorrow, and they are apparently not going to postpone Saturday (the flyer says "rain or shine").  However, we've had multiple canopy tents destroyed from wind in the past and don't feel like taking another $120-150 hit from destroying another.  The forecast for the area of the event says NW wind 20-30mph.  A constant 20mph wind is probably ok and towards the upper limit of what we'd deal with.  How likely is it for gusts 30+ mph in interior RI/MA?  The storm is weakening but I'm always concerned with the "expanding wind field" these transitioning storms tend to bring.

TIA.

I think gusts over 30 are likely tomorrow. 

[FXWX]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

I have it

Best I've ever come across...

[eyewall]

It will be fun tomorrow at the Mt. Washington Observatory. Forecast gusts of 130 mph.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I feel like my thoughts from last week were essentially on target....no changes.

SEP

7

 

 

Hurricane Lee Minimal Threat to US 

Hurricane Lee Minimal Threat to US

High Surf Primary Impact

Currently Hurricane Lee is a minimal category 1 hurricane over the central Atlantic with maximum sustained winds near 80MPH

However, guidance continues to emphatically suggest that the system will soon undergo rapid intensification into at least a category 4 storm.

 

Thus the most important consideration is whether or not this system is likely to have a major impact on the US and the answer is no.

 

Future Path & Intensity of Lee Spell Minimal Threat to US

While there is still a great deal of uncertainty among guidance concerning the precise track of Lee over the next several days, one aspect that guidance is essentially in unanimous agreement on is that the system will begin to recurve to the north by approximately 70 degrees longitude, as a weakness develops the ridge downstream from the hurricane.

 

This is a crucial portion of the forecast because climatology can often be used as a guide when computer models are at the periphery of their more skilled range, which is the case here. In this case, it is evident that hurricanes that go onto greatly impact the NE US at least approach about 75 degrees on longitude before veering towards the north.

 

But clearly guidance is in strong agreement that that will not be the case with Lee.

 

 

Although agreement is strong, there was one lone voice of dissent amongst the European ensemble suite that would pose a particularly dire threat to the state of Florida.

 

 

 

But this scenario is an extreme outlier considering that 51/52 European members turn Lee to the north and every one of the GFS ensemble members do.

Thus confidence in the above scenario is well above average relative to the extended lead time and thus a major impact to the NE can essentially be ruled out since the hurricane will begin its recurve so far to the east. 

 

 

 

But essentially is not synonymous with entirely. Like that lone voice of dissent among the European cluster that loomed ominously for Florida, there are two outlier GFS ensemble members that draw Lee into the trough and track the system over Cape Cod on approximately September 18.

 

 

Although this is an exceedingly unlikely scenario, which is illustrated by climatology,  it is a theoretically plausible scenario.

 

 

 

 But Lee would first have to traverse waters that have been significantly cooled due to the upwelling caused by Hurricane Frederick and Hurricane Idalia, thus whether or not Lee would impact the Cape as a hurricane is very dubious.

 

In fact it is more likely than not that it would have been downgraded to a tropical storm by this point, which coupled with the asymmetrical wind distribution that is characteristic of tropical storms interacting with mid latitude systems, would mean sensible impact commensurate with a typical winter nor 'easter rather than a major hurricane strike.

 

Remain vigilant, but unalarmed and any updates will be issued later this week if warranted-

 

[Cold Miser]

...Some want it gone, some want the damage.  At this time we are unable to master the hurricane.

 

[HimoorWx]

Started getting quite breezy overnight out in Eastham. Probably 20 with gusts to 30. House across from the cottage we rent has a big f***ing wind chime in the yard. Wanted to go rip it down during the night.

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[NoCORH4L]

12 minutes ago, HimoorWx said:

Started getting quite breezy overnight out in Eastham. Probably 20 with gusts to 30. House across from the cottage we rent has a big f***ing wind chime in the yard. Wanted to go rip it down during the night.

Sent from my SM-A546U using Tapatalk
 

Lol, I hate those stupid things.   Let's make some extra noise by having the wind bang together some metal.  Great! 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We may be falling back in basketball and soccer, but Team USA tropical forecasting has come a long way. GFS needed a win after Idalia. 

 

We were never ‘ahead’ in soccer but yea we’re falling back in basketball to an extent.