Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[forkyfork]

if you live where offshore phasing coastals fringe the area you notice how often the euro does this bullshit

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Region wide is always tough, as you know. They hook east and weaken on approach more often than not. 

Well, said last week this would be a big deal for the US in general.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think most knew deep down this wouldn't be a big deal for the US, but people are bored and some tried to force a square peg into a round hole.

[Chrisrotary12]

5 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Lee isn't exactly cruising when it enters the Gulf of Maine.... is it even going to resemble anything at landfall?

Lee looks like low grade dog food right now. How’s it going to survive another 2.5 day? Just enough of ruin a Saturday.

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think most knew deep down this wouldn't be a big deal for the US, but people are bored and some tried to force a square peg into a round hole.

It was clear from the start this wouldn’t be a significant event for most of the US coast, but I did think there was a legitimate small chance for NE which looks to work out and I do think this’ll be meaningful for Maine/NS. 

People will always try to force it (see the 5 minute excitement from some about future Nigel), but I also think there’s a tendency to downplay something that’s trackable, especially if the chances are modest or narrowly tailored to a small zone. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

It was clear from the start this wouldn’t be a significant event for most of the US coast, but I did think there was a legitimate small chance for NE which looks to work out and I do think this’ll be meaningful for Maine/NS. 

People will always try to force it (see the 5 minute excitement from some about future Nigel), but I also think there’s a tendency to downplay something that’s trackable, especially if the chances are modest or narrowly tailored to a small zone. 

Meaningful...sure, in the sense of major nor'Easter ...said that all along. But in my world, that is "who caresville".

[Chrisrotary12]

2 hours ago, mob1 said:

This is quickly trending towards a minor event for anyone outside of Maine (with perhaps far eastern New England getting a moderate event). 

Trending towards a minor event implies it was potentially an impactful event at one point….. it was never. There’s 7 days of posts from folks who are worth listening to saying this isn’t going to be a big deal.

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, wxsniss said:

Kudos to NHC for not flinching with the cone... there was a period yesterday when most ensembles and op runs and their trends were on the very left edge of their cone. Some mets (Dave Esptein most prominently) flinched.

Still significant lead time remaining in the scheme of tropical forecasting, and we've seen day-of 50-100 mile wobbles happen with majors, but what was always the most likely "correction vector" east is now increasingly supported by guidance today.

Hurricane models performed well. Euro / GFS debates? They swapped roles in the closest tracks at various times, so I'm not convinced one was truly better than the other.

In the camp of "I awe at severe like everyone on this forum but I don't want actual damage to my house", I'm relieved.

1 run is an aberration, 2 is a coincidence, 3 is a trend. Forecasters shouldn’t flinch because 1 suite of models shifted 50-100 miles at day 4. 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Meaningful...sure, in the sense of major nor'Easter ...said that all along. But in my world, that is "who caresville".

Right, you are consistent there  

The title is the title for a reason. 

[bristolri_wx]

“The environment ahead of Lee is expected to gradually become less 
conducive for the hurricane as it moves into a region of higher 
wind shear, drier air, and over progressively cooler SSTs.  These 
conditions favor weakening, but since the system is so large the 
weakening process should be slow.  The NHC intensity forecast is a 
little lower than the previous one, in part due to the initial lower 
wind speed, and remains near the HCCA and IVCN guidance.  
Regardless of the details, there is high confidence that Lee will be 
a large hurricane near the coast of New England Friday night and 
Saturday.

It should again be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed
probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are
likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring.  This is
because the forecast wind field of Lee is considerably larger than
average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed
probability product.”

Stick a fork in it - though perhaps the Tropical Storm force winds will be farther out than we would normally expect. The fact it’s taking a while to wind down may influence that as well. Looks like the rain risk is fading away as well, 1-2” for ESNE 2-4” for Maine…

[bristolri_wx]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Meaningful...sure, in the sense of major nor'Easter ...said that all along. But in my world, that is "who caresville".

I agree in principal but we’ve had many strong autumn nor’easters that have caused significant amounts of winds and damage… just not hurricane level stuff. 

[BombsAway1288]

Unusually saturated ground and full leaf out should still bring down a decent amount of trees which equals significant impacts. This of course is contingent on the winds mixing down efficiently. We’ll see how it plays out EOR.

ME and NS are locks for a memorable event at this point though 

[CoastalWx]

Tropical models into SW NS. Good bye and good luck. 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I agree in principal but we’ve had many strong autumn nor’easters that have caused significant amounts of winds and damage… just not hurricane level stuff. 

October ‘21 was as good as it gets. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tropical models into SW NS. Good bye and good luck. 

Yep it's over

It was a fun ride of tracking this. Our area sucks for tropical weather. 

 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep it's over

It was a fun ride of tracking this. Our area sucks for tropical weather. 

 

Where is this Nigel you spoke of previously? 

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tropical models into SW NS. Good bye and good luck. 

Lol…you’ve said this a few times already.  Hopefully this is the final time for this POS. 

[Quincy]

Even the SREF is east. Maybe it ends up being a dry weekend for TOL with just an occasional light breeze? 

[tunafish]

Wait so we're not leaning big anymore?

[Torch Tiger]

wow

[WxWatcher007]

 

[dendrite]

How's the JMA/SPIRE combo looking?

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Where is this Nigel you spoke of previously? 

 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Even the SREF is east. Maybe it ends up being a dry weekend for TOL with just an occasional light breeze? 

Thank God this wasn't a snowstorm

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

How's the JMA/SPIRE combo looking?

Wtf is Spire 

[Torch Tiger]

Lee is gone, we knew better.  He dipped

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…you’ve said this a few times already.  Hopefully this is the final time for this POS. 

I said it half joking several days ago, but now.....yeah. Windy Saturday, but otherwise yawn. Cape may have some fun.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wtf is Spire 

 

[SnoSki14]

Lee couldn't even make it to 68W. Of course it wasn't going to be a good hit. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Can someone post the 18z euro ensembles for me (not the mean) And yes I know it’s not landfalling