Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Throughout the whole evolution of LEE the Global models for the most part have been spot-on with the track. Intensity (expected) hiccuped a couple of times.
Back 8 days ago the a pole-ward track would commence , location of the hurricane approx. at 25N 65W. Well modeled! Divergence persists.
Here we are...pick your poison, the slower movement especially as LAT is gained should concern everyone. A wobble one way or the other, HUGE
If that W' ward hook continues on future runs.
RUT-ROH (Ginx)
I remember NOEL. Many of us chased down to Chatham, that was fun...       

I don't think will be HUGE....the track is going east of us, regardless.

[BIsound]

 

perhaps an omen. In Quonnie salt pond ( I know harmless, but if I was clamming and saw this I would lose it!!)

DEEP on Tuesday shared a photo of the wandering manatee, which may have to be captured and relocated if it sticks around too long as water temperatures drop.

 

A Rhode Island manatee. The sea mammal native to Florida and the Gulf Coast was spotted recently in a coastal lagoon near the state border with Connecticut.

[Quincy]

09z SREF coming in, maybe a tick east? The odd thing is that the usually amped ARW members that were all on the western envelope, have seen some movement east. On the other hand, several NMM members have come west. 

The mean takes the center over the southwestern most tip of Nova Scotia. About 10 or 11 members out of 26 show a New England landfall. The consensus camp is into NS, but there’s more spread than the last run, as another cluster likes Maine.

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Beer?

Nope…I just summed it up. That’s the takeaway/average from all the posts as it stands at the moment. 

[CoastalWx]

Honest question. Why the SREF for tropicals??

[forkyfork]

why the sref for anything

[bobbutts]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

why the sref for anything

Usually a member with a gigantic snow total can be found.

[Quincy]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Honest question. Why the SREF for tropicals??

Because I’m bored and I like that it shows the low centers. 

I mainly use that page for severe. But it’s really not that much different than posting 12km NAM stuff. 

3km NAM coming into range soon. That’ll be fun 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Because I’m bored and I like that it shows the low centers. 

I mainly use that page for severe. But it’s really not that much different than posting 12km NAM stuff. 

4km NAM coming into range soon. That’ll be fun 

Lordamercy… there’s a 4k nam now? 

[tunafish]

18 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Folks up here have no fuking clue what’s going on.

Seems that way.  In a way, that's good - we don't need the panic, but people should absolutely be putting their prep plans in place today or tomorrow, assuming there aren't any big shifts east. 

Aside from power outages and inland flash flooding, my biggest concern is surge/beachfront erosion and flooding.  These tidal rivers will fill up fast and there are a lot of houses right along them, especially down this way where we don't have the added elevation of rocky river shores like mid-coast and downeast.  We're all mud flats.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

why the sref for anything

It nailed Jan 2016

[dryslot]

22 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Seems that way.  In a way, that's good - we don't need the panic, but people should absolutely be putting their prep plans in place today or tomorrow, assuming there aren't any big shifts east. 

Aside from power outages and inland flash flooding, my biggest concern is surge/beachfront erosion and flooding.  These tidal rivers will fill up fast and there are a lot of houses right along them, especially down this way where we don't have the added elevation of rocky river shores like mid-coast and downeast.  We're all mud flats.

Even an east track wont have a lot of affect on power outages, Going to be quite widespread, That wind field massive.

[Quincy]

13 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

why the sref for anything

It’s guidance. Almost all guidance has some utility. You can identify trends, spread and uncertainty. Just keep in mind the usual biases.

I’ll grant you all that the SREF should not be the preferred or only guidance you look at with tropical cyclones. 

[CoastalWx]

For NH and Maine, might almost be a downslope issue. There is an inversion aloft, GFS sort of shows some enhancement at 925-850. If you can get sun, that is 50kt+ at the top of the mixing layer.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Even an east track wont have a lot of affect on power outages, Going to be quite widespread, That wind feel is massive.

Yup...30-60 mph gusts are going to cause problems given our environment (well moreso 40-60). Just think of what summer thunderstorms do locally with similar wind gusts but extrapolate those gusts over a widespread area.  

[Quincy]

Even an east tick is going to still ugly for coastal eastern Mass. Especially Beverly toward Cape Cod Bay. N/NE fetch, gusts easily reaching 50-60+. Flooding is a real concern given the wind field size and trajectory. 

[weatherwiz]

something must be up with PSU because I can't get any bufkit profiles except the HRRR  

[SnoSki14]

Love the look of these big poleward canes. Outflow is spectacular 

[Hazey]

Place to be for this one I think. Whatever fury Lee has to give, good chance this place will experience it.

https://www.brierisland.com

[NSwx]

5 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Place to be for this one I think. Whatever fury Lee has to give, good chance this place will experience it.

https://www.brierisland.com

I feel like I’m in a good spot also, more southeast of Briar Island but still on the far southern tip of the province. 6z gfs has me gusting to nearly 140 kmh from the southeast so surge would be an issue.

[dryslot]

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yup...30-60 mph gusts are going to cause problems given our environment (well moreso 40-60). Just think of what summer thunderstorms do locally with similar wind gusts but extrapolate those gusts over a widespread area.  

And a longer period too.

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, NSwx said:

I feel like I’m in a good spot also, more southeast of Briar Island but still on the far southern tip of the province. 6z gfs has me gusting to nearly 140 kmh from the southeast so surge would be an issue.

Good luck. Be safe.

[FXWX]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think will be HUGE....the track is going east of us, regardless.

I agree HUGE is likely inappropriate, I also think using the term "Nor'easter" in the thread title was a good way to treat the threat.  I have become a bit more interested even though this will be a storm passing east of the Cape, which usually does not get me overly interested.   My interest is peaked by the strong winds that continue to be modeled for the 900 / 925 mb levels.  This will be gradient driven and the only question for eastern portions of CT/RI and eastern Mass, excluding the Cape, is how efficient is the mixing?  Given the progged wind fields, a well-mixed event will lead to pretty widespread power issues given current status of trees (still lots of leaves) & very wet ground surfaces in eastern sections of SNE, eastern CT/RI/inside the 495 corridor of Mass.  So, no major hurricane hit, but still solid hit for Cape Cod and coastal eastern Mass... Disruptive wind gusts for interior eastern portions of SNE, "IF" mixing become efficient.  If we do not see decent mixing then this will end-up pretty meh for anyone away from the coast.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Probably just enough rain back here to wetbulb down, get a bit of an inversion, and muck up the wind potential. 

I'm thinking this snark is actually valid/plausible throughout everywhere, actually ( not speaking to shore communities here...)

Not sure I see how BL resistance is overcome unless the core of this thing gets a lot closer. 

Wind is tricky though.  We've seen phenomenal sounding looks for mid latitude wind potentials fall short in the passed with head scratches.  Other times there's been over-achievement.  It's hard to ignore a 973 MB back NW -I'll give a nod there.  But still, it is in fact weakening while that is happening, and as the wind increases it will back due to BL resistance and then you have shear in the vertical cross section and big wind is above that planar rotation, while there is positive stability below..

[dryslot]

12z Nam is a bit slower then the 06z run, Should be west some i think given where the trough is going.

[CT Rain]

 

Zzzzzzzz

 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm thinking this snark is actually valid/plausible throughout everywhere, actually ( not speaking to shore communities here...)

Not sure I see how BL resistance is overcome unless the core of this thing gets a lot closer. 

Wind is tricky though.  We've seen phenomenal sounding looks for mid latitude wind potentials fall short in the passed with head scratches.  Other times there's been over-achievement.  It's hard to ignore a 973 MB back NW -I'll give a nod there.  But still, it is in fact weakening while that is happening, and as the wind increases it will back due to BL resistance and then you have shear in the vertical cross section and big wind is above that planar rotation, while there is positive stability below..

At least the 6z GFS anyways, showed pretty steep lapse rates developing within the region (not the entire region but a corridor of steep lapse rates).

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

 

Zzzzzzzz

 

These are the models we were told to use by some. So yeah, zzzz

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I agree HUGE is likely inappropriate, I also think using the term "Nor'easter" in the thread title was a good way to treat the threat.  I have become a bit more interested even though this will be a storm passing east of the Cape, which usually does not get me overly interested.   My interest is peaked by the strong winds that continue to be modeled for the 900 / 925 mb levels.  This will be gradient driven and the only question for eastern portions of CT/RI and eastern Mass, excluding the Cape, is how efficient is the mixing?  Given the progged wind fields, a well-mixed event will lead to pretty widespread power issues given current status of trees (still lots of leaves) & very wet ground surfaces in eastern sections of SNE, eastern CT/RI/inside the 495 corridor of Mass.  So, no major hurricane hit, but still solid hit for Cape Cod and coastal eastern Mass... Disruptive wind gusts for interior eastern portions of SNE, "IF" mixing become efficient.  If we do not see decent mixing then this will end-up pretty meh for anyone away from the coast.

Yes and yessah and yup 

[SeanInWayland]

13 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

 

Zzzzzzzz

 

From your computer screen to God's ears, I hope. Flying West early Saturday from Logan and am kinda nervous about getting out.