Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[WxWatcher007]

Rinse and repeat the last two pages for the next two days. 

[weatherwiz]

40-50 mph wind gusts now vs. November is totally different. In the sense of gusts, sure they may not be overly impressive but 40-50 mph gusts in this environment is going to cause more issues than usual. I think widespread 40-50 mph gusts are doable for a large area.

[dryslot]

The 06z run bit stronger then the 0z Run, On the 06Z @hr90, 971.6mb, 0z@hr96, 977mb, SLP when its in the GOM is pretty much the same.

[mob1]

Yep, all overnight models shifted slightly east, though a few hurricane models keep it interesting. We'll see what today brings, but conventional wisdom says that it's no big deal outside of the cape and Maine. 

[DomNH]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Largest impacts here will be beach erosion and insult to injury rains if it gets close enough.

Too far east for any meaningful impacts, just west enough to ruin a Saturday. How exciting. 

[tunafish]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lean bigger folks .. lean big 

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1701920743527956563?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

like this big?

[CoastalWx]

Just need to see what 12z does. So many plans for Saturday. Critical decisions to be made.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The 06z run bit stronger then the 0z Run, On the 06Z @hr90, 971.6mb, 0z@hr96, 977mb, SLP when its in the GOM is pretty much the same.

Yup

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup

Hope you get to go to the Cape for this.   

[ROOSTA]

Throughout the whole evolution of LEE the Global models for the most part have been spot-on with the track. Intensity (expected) hiccuped a couple of times.
Back 8 days ago the a pole-ward track would commence , location of the hurricane approx. at 25N 65W. Well modeled! Divergence persists.
Here we are...pick your poison, the slower movement especially as LAT is gained should concern everyone. A wobble one way or the other, HUGE
If that W' ward hook continues on future runs.
RUT-ROH (Ginx)
I remember NOEL. Many of us chased down to Chatham, that was fun...       

[weatherwiz]

I seem to be having issues with bufkit this morning too  

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Hope you get to go to the Cape for this.   

If we can rip 50- 60 here I’ll likely stay put. That’ll satisfy my damage fetish with wet grounds and leaves on trees 

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/yconsor/status/1701932170959347973?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[STILL N OF PIKE]

14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Hope you get to go to the Cape for this.   

The wife will frown upon that . 

[MJO812]

Enjoy

[MJO812]

If only we had stronger blocking 

[ineedsnow]

18 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Hope you get to go to the Cape for this.   

im looking at hotels in eastham/ chatham  see what 12z does

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Which is a red flag to keep expectations in check. I said a few days ago the path to the most impactful wind around here was through a quick extratropical transition.

Winds are still expanding and it's absolutely going ET with fronts at our latitude. This system is huge watch how fast the winds broaden as it gets here. Of course you are far inland and effects are always meh with near Cape storms wind wise. But anyone with decent elevation and anyone within 75 miles of the Cape should get at minimum gusts to 55.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If we can rip 50- 60 here I’ll likely stay put. That’ll satisfy my damage fetish with wet grounds and leaves on trees 

Go to the Cape dude, way more exciting.  Sure, you might get some ok gusts in Tolland at your elevation but the Cape is the place to chase.  
I expect a mostly dry, breezy weekend in the CRV. 

[SouthCoastMA]

thinking 40-60mph gusts here. we'll see if we can hit 70

granted I'd be totally ok without losing power. 

[WxWatcher007]

More environmental recon than structural/in-storm recon lately from NOAA. 

[CoastalWx]

EPS pretty close to 00z so far.

[CoastalWx]

Maybe a hair ENE on the mean? Could be less crazy western members I guess. Pretty close.

[CoastalWx]

12z tropicals still well east of euro.

[dryslot]

[WinterWolf]

So we’re locked in right….No more changes between now and Saturday.  If anything it goes east right.  Boring and not much but breezy conditions with a few sprinkles and peaks of sun on Saturday inland, and tropical storm conditions on the cape and islands for SNE.  That’s pretty much what the folks in the know here are conveying currently right.  Makes sense. 
 

Absolutely poring here currently…Thats a shocker this summer.   

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

So we’re locked in right….No more changes between now and Saturday.  If anything it goes east right.  Boring and not much but breezy conditions with a few sprinkles and peaks of sun on Saturday inland, and tropical storm conditions on the cape and islands for SNE.  That’s pretty much what the folks in the know here are conveying currently right.  Makes sense. 
 

Absolutely poring here currently…Thats a shocker this summer.   

Beer?

[dryslot]

Folks up here have no fuking clue what’s going on.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Beer?

[Rtd208]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Beer?

How I picture him.