Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

58 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not related to the forecast portion, but just look at the size of Lee as it begins to turn. 

Spectacular! 
I have been closely watching the buoys up and down the east coast and it’s pretty clear the increasing size and therefore fetch area is really impacting wave production. 
The great Atlantic hurricane of 1944 passed 100 miles east of New Jersey but due to its tremendous size caused tremendous damage along the coast. That could be an analog for eastern New England this time. 

[wxsniss]

0z EPS ticked west compared to 12z

Mean is spot on with EC, a bit west of (and slower than) GFS

Rare members making landfall into RI / southeast MA / outer Cape... would be bad scenario for Cape / Islands at least

[CCHurricane]

6 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

0z EPS ticked west compared to 12z

Mean is spot on with EC, a bit west of GFS

Rare members making landfall into RI / southeast MA / outer Cape... would be bad scenario for Cape / Islands at least

For sure a jog west compared to 12z, yet backed off some of the 18z juice. Regardless, still a high number of ensemble members showing a rough time for Cape and Islands even if there is no "landfall". 

[CoastalWx]

Tropical models ticked west but 00z euro stabilized. I wonder if we do see things tick east. We’ll have to see what guidance does today. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Well folks.. we’ve all got ourselves a cane. How many more west moves can we get is the question 

[CoastalWx]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well folks.. we’ve all got ourselves a cane. How many more west moves can we get is the question 

Probably ticks east 

[Ginx snewx]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tropical models ticked west but 00z euro stabilized. I wonder if we do see things tick east. We’ll have to see what guidance does today. 

Save a horse. You guys trash the Euro but when it's big boy decision making time, get on that horse. New Moon Goon gonna be big coastal issue.

[CoastalWx]

Looks like 6Z Gfs also stabilize or perhaps when a tick east.

[Ginx snewx]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well folks.. we’ve all got ourselves a cane. How many more west moves can we get is the question 

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Save a horse. You guys trash the Euro but when it's big boy decision making time, get on that horse. New Moon Goon gonna be big coastal issue.

It will tick east

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Save a horse. You guys trash the Euro but when it's big boy decision making time, get on that horse. New Moon Goon gonna be big coastal issue.

It’s already east from it’s crazy 18z solution. 

[CoastalWx]

I actually like the Gfs solution. It’s probably the most realistic 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It will tick east

You hope. I am not so sure this time. The jog west and how far is very concerning backside as the gradient and mixing could be trouble.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I actually like the Gfs solution. It’s probably the most realistic 

Danger Will Robinson.  GFS came 200 miles west  in a day now it's correct? Seriously have to watch that latent heat theoy Webb talks about. IF This pulls a Sandy hook.....

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Danger Will Robinson.  GFS came 200 miles west  in a day now it's correct? Seriously have to watch that latent heat theoy Webb talks about. IF This pulls a Sandy hook.....

There’s not much convection, so I don’t see how latent is viable. Also models take that into consideration, this isn’t 1999 anymore.

GFS did move west (not 200 miles)  but euro probably too tucky as usual. 
 

That’s just my thoughts. We see this happen many times. A compromise.

[Torch Tiger]

Uninspiring 0z-6z runs for sure.  Looks well offshore

[kdxken]

Stein backing off his no "big deal " after the latest model runs .

 

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It will tick east

Just like you were so confident OTS and goodbye. Plenty of room for more west moves next 2 days as EPS supports 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s not much convection, so I don’t see how latent is viable. Also models take that into consideration, this isn’t 1999 anymore.

GFS did move west (not 200 miles)  but euro probably too tucky as usual. 
 

That’s just my thoughts. We see this happen many times. A compromise.

IDk Scott hope you are right. We won't know how far Nwest that turn is, any rate Maine gets smoked. I dont see any difference between 18Z and 0z 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just like you were so confident OTS and goodbye. Plenty of room for more west moves next 2 days as EPS supports 

Even for you it’s no big deal.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

IDk Scott hope you are right. We won't know how far Nwest that turn is, any rate Maine gets smoked. I dont see any difference between 18Z and 0z 

I do. Pretty clear 18z was coming NW.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Uninspiring 0z-6z runs for sure.  Looks well offshore

Looking forward to the surf pics from Gloucester 

[snowdazed]

Just how badly could RI get pasted by this?  I'm not sure how to balance the shifting track, the cold water weakening, and the large wind field.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

IDk Scott hope you are right. We won't know how far Nwest that turn is, any rate Maine gets smoked. I dont see any difference between 18Z and 0z 

The tropicals and 6z gfs look good to me. 40-50 gusts near BOS. Perhaps 60 cape. Period of rain on coast. 
 

Definitely more than I thought two days ago. But I think 18z euro was too amped. 

[Modfan2]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The tropicals and 6z gfs look good to me. 40-50 gusts near BOS. Perhaps 60 cape. Period of rain on coast. 
 

Definitely more than I thought two days ago. But I think 18z euro was too amped. 

Yeah, not expecting much here, some breezy conditions in E CT, maybe some fringe rain bands. Congrats E NE and ME

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Even for you it’s no big deal.

As of now it’s 50-60 mph river east and 40-50 mph for Wolf to Runaway west Even before this massive be west shift across guidance Ryan yesterday had 40-45 knots with mixing 

[WxWatcher007]

Like I said yesterday, we’re tracking ticks inside 48. Additional movement west on the models probably happens at this range, followed by a slight correction east late. That doesn’t mean the next 1-2 days it’s all ticks west then all of a sudden Friday the last runs are east, or that we go from a solution with the center very near the Cape swinging to the western edge of Nova Scotia Saturday morning.

I’d advise the center followers to “smooth out” the op run/ens mean trends over multiple model suites, because tracking tropical and attaching some meaning to each cycle at this range risks losing the forest for the trees. Exact center placement will come…inside 48.

While the center pass is not nearly as relevant for coastal areas of the Cape, Maine, and Nova Scotia—and those folks should be preparing if they haven’t started already—it’ll matter inland for areas back my way. 

Setting aside the op runs, just look at the ensemble shift. That’s significant. 

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

47 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Stein backing off his no "big deal " after the latest model runs .

 

 

 

Too many irresponsible mets posting definitive forecasts over the past week + on LEE very misleading and confusing to the public..  What's wrong with saying Tropical storm conditions possible, hurricane conditions possible not likely far east.. and give percentage of verifying..  They should know better than to write anything off, STEIN must be SH***ng his pants after that HAFS-B came out with 70-90 mph winds and heavy rain for EMASS.  Still 72-84 hours to track a lot can change. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Also why are we treating this like a Nor'Easter forecast with typical west trends 48-72 hours then last second jump east? This is a tropical system?? In my mind anything is possible still with a track over the cape or a track 200 miles east of the cape. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Bar Harbor area could be fun for Lee