Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[dryslot]

Bring back the ETA.

[Quincy]

The NAM evolution is something. Through 72 hours, it’s still a bit south, but the key is that there’s virtually no phasing with the ejecting shortwave. Result is slower movement and solid warm core retention. Not only is it not getting pulled northeast as fast, but it still looks like a formidable cane. 

[ineedsnow]

at hr78  getting pulled west   oh boy oh boy

[dryslot]

Ha, Yeah

[Hoth]

43 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Even if this thing stays east and skirts Maine, that’s an ugly look for the coast from the Cape, right up to Maine. The guidance I’m looking at retains a fairly robust wind core on the west side. Pretty remarkable for this latitude. 

Using the SREF as a sample because I like the tighter graphic, but even the EPS mean wind field is fairly symmetrical and largely intact on the west side. 

ARW7 would make a lot of us sickos happy...and put us in the dark for a while.

[NorEastermass128]

Coming in from the SE will likely have different impacts than a slingshot TS flung in from due south. It’s also not moving too quickly, so water will pile up and be pushed toward the coast. This could be a mess. 

[Quincy]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

at hr78  getting pulled west   oh boy oh boy

Movement from 78-84 hours looks pretty damn NW lol. Too bad it’s weenie range 

[ineedsnow]

NAM has joined the Euro party

[MJO812]

Yikes

[dryslot]

[CoastalWx]

That wound be an unusual wind direction. NW gales. 

[ineedsnow]

now we need the other big models to trend this way tonight

[Quincy]

NAM wind gusts, FWIW

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

NAM has joined the Euro party

Well there’s one more for some support..I know that’s not the best model to have as support, but hey you know what they say about beggars….  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’m going to vomit if this ends up screwing my bros wedding. So much money flushed 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Quincy said:

NAM wind gusts, FWIW

would be higher after that... storm was still moving in

[MJO812]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m going to vomit if this ends up screwing my bros wedding. So much money flushed 

It's outside?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m going to vomit if this ends up screwing my bros wedding. So much money flushed 

While that would suck, it would be the least of your problems. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

While that would suck, it would be the least of your problems. 

He should worry more about home at that point.

[WxWatcher007]

1) Still a western outlier

2) Watch for the last minute ticks east

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m going to vomit if this ends up screwing my bros wedding. So much money flushed 

I wouldn’t get to worried just yet obviously. I mean you told all of us quite a few times, that this isn’t SNE’s Storm…so I mean there’s that to hang the hat on. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

While that would suck, it would be the least of your problems. 

 

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

He should worry more about home at that point.

Just had the sumps serviced and 1 replaced. I should be okay there. Wind would be what it is, nothing we haven’t seen before.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

1) Still a western outlier

2) Watch for the last minute ticks east

Or last minute west ticks

Models underestimating the ridge ?

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, Quincy said:

NAM wind gusts, FWIW

Probably will have a decent gradient in ENE... more stable air as you move inland?  Also SNE and up the Maine coastal plain are generally SE of of higher terrain... so the NE to NW wind flow can go from a bit inverted, to full on mixing as soon as that flow downslopes.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well there’s one more for some support..I know that’s not the best model to have as support, but hey you know what they say about beggars….  

We’re safe out here. This is the rare time we high five EOR jacks. 

[MarkO]

8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m going to eat crow if this ends up screwing my bros wedding. So much will they laugh at me. 

Fixed it for ya.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We’re safe out here. This is the rare time we high five EOR jacks. 

Ya…not expecting damage or anything here. 

[rimetree]

Birthday Saturday would be fun tracking a tropical or even just a good, strong nor'easter coming into the GOM. This September is shaping up to be more interesting than most.

[Quincy]

Here’s the old 18z GEFS trend loop. Notice the slower trend, more west and stronger wind field. I’d expect the trend to continue with the rest of the 00z suite. Buckle up. 

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, Quincy said:

Here’s the old 18z GEFS trend loop. Notice the slower trend, more west and stronger wind field. I’d expect the trend to continue with the rest of the 00z suite. Buckle up. 

Yeah, New England needs to pay very close attention to this. Exceedingly large wind field also..