Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What tropical event hit SNE with 55-65mph wind in the early 2000s?

Hurricane Lager

[Damage In Tolland]

I wish I could recall the storm . But there’s some other posters that have commented they remember it. All pressure gradient /mixing derived. Very similar 

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Lot of those tracks came west a tic or two from the 12z run.

Maine is Canada. It's a miss for New England. Sorry.  

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I wish I could recall the storm . But there’s some other posters that have commented they remember it. All pressure gradient /mixing derived. Very similar 

Weren’t there some October ones around that time?  Like 2004 or 2005?  Wilma or some hybrid storm?

[ineedsnow]

Some GEFS members hit the cape

[FXWX]

57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup. Gusts to or over 55 interior. Tried to tell 

What do you think is the over / under max wind for Tolland? 

[Ginx snewx]

27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What tropical event hit SNE with 55-65mph wind in the early 2000s?

Gustav

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I wish I could recall the storm . But there’s some other posters that have commented they remember it. All pressure gradient /mixing derived. Very similar 

Gustav Spt 11th 2002 as it passed intensity was 100 mph as it lost tropical and interacted with HP. We had gusts to 65 here.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, FXWX said:

What do you think is the over / under max wind for Tolland? 

Not making a forecast 5 days out . What I see now in terms of huge gradient .. warm day and cold aloft.. it seems 50+ is possible for most locations . Need to see what slp is Fri morning 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Gustav Spt 11th 2002 as it passed intensity was 100 mph as it lost tropical and interacted with HP. We had gusts to 65 here.

Yes Steve .. that was the one . Thank you . I remember the wind and the damage . Just not the year. This looks close as modeled 

[Modfan2]

How goes the HWRF look? 

[dryslot]

5 hours ago, snowwors2 said:

I’ll be prepped, just in case, here in “upper” DownEast Maine (Harrington, ME)‼️

 

 

5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Love it out there. Good luck. 

 

18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Maine is Canada. It's a miss for New England. Sorry.  

Do you have your passport?

[RoboMaine]

15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Maine is Canada. It's a miss for New England. Sorry.  

I understand that this particular post may have been meant with well-intended humor.  I am not directing my response to WxWatcher007, but to a considerable number of frothy urban dweller/forum members in the southern part of New England.

I have been a member of this forum for well over a decade.  I made the transition, with many of you from Eastern WX Forum. 

I lurk, I read, and on rare occasion, post.

I have been grateful, on many occasions, for the wisdom and timeliness of so mamy posts over the years as I made staffing, deployment, and planning decisions in emergency management over a thirty-plus year law enforcement career in Southern Maine...less than 100 miles from Boston.

I have been amused by the amount of weenies tossed hither and yon as storms did what storms do.

I am some god-awful tired of the amount of flatlanders that live further from Boston than I do forgetting geography as it relates to the name of this sub-forum.

I am retired, finally, but not yet old, and am in the mood to resort to means heretofore unavailable to me to remind some of you young (and not so young) idiot whippersnappers that Maine is indeed a part of New England.  FFS.

Having said that, I go prepare for a fairly significant event in my little piece of New England.

-Robotom

[Typhoon Tip]

46 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What tropical event hit SNE with 55-65mph wind in the early 2000s?

It was a ‘no name’ storm

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I’m case you want to see me talk about the surf rather then type it out here’s an interview I did today.

https://www.fox5ny.com/news/hurricane-lee-threatens-beaches-with-erosion-and-rip-currents-this-weekend

The real takeaway from Lee will be beach erosion in the north east. The huge wind radius and captured fetch will produce a once a decade swell event. 

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes Steve .. that was the one . Thank you . I remember the wind and the damage . Just not the year. This looks close as modeled 

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1701729554933719461?s=61&t=Pk5kJ6P6zr8shlxCBIJwLQ

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1701729554933719461?s=61&t=Pk5kJ6P6zr8shlxCBIJwLQ

Yeah 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m case you want to see me talk about the surf rather then type it out here’s an interview I did today.

https://www.fox5ny.com/news/hurricane-lee-threatens-beaches-with-erosion-and-rip-currents-this-weekend

The real takeaway from Lee will be beach erosion in the north east. The huge wind radius and captured fetch will produce a once a decade swell event. 

I’m @ misquamicut beach today and tomorrow , had some fun with a consistent waist high swell today with occasional head high sets (just bodysurfing ) . Remember folks no lifeguards @ beach so if you go in stay alert (nobody else is probably going in but me lol) and look for rip currents (they aren’t hard to identify ) in light wind conditions 

be heading to RI Friday and Hampton (NH) sat for the real big stuff 

[Torch Tiger]

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, Sn0waddict said:

NS it is.  Regarding the Euro it’s been so incredibly inconsistent with this.  Not sure how anyone can hang their hat on it at this point. 

 

Just wait until the Euro shows a day 6 blizzard in January.

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

I like this guy. He doesn't hedge too much.

[WxWatcher007]

@tunafish I'm poking at some of the posters that seem to forget Maine is New England.

In all seriousness though, it looks impactful up there. Euro or GFS. To Ryan's earlier point, even with a further east track there could be some impacts into a greater part of New England than you'd otherwise see with this track, which could still shift. 

You can already see it setting up. Lee has used its periods of reorganization to organize an increasingly massive wind field.

At its peak, Lee had hurricane force winds extend 45 miles and tropical storm winds extend 140 miles. In the last three days, with numerous attempts at an ERC, the wind field has expanded to the following:

Sunday 5pm: 45 miles/175 miles
Monday 5pm: 75 miles/185 miles
Today 5pm: 125 miles/240 miles

Look at the expansion the last 24 hours! You don't see that often.

It's only getting larger. Expect more expansion with 1) the continuing ERC structure, 2) the eventual turn north, and 3) with the inevitable extratropical transition.

The last two MW passes haven't been great, but you can see how it's just working with a massive eye and poised to keep expanding. 
 

Looking at recon, a few things stand out. The first is how large the FL wind field has hurricane force winds. I think that tells me that this won't be some hollowed out system at our latitude. There's going to be strong winds over an expansive area just off the deck. Now, to Tip and others' point, how the ET transition happens will determine what gets to the ground. 

The second thing to watch is the pressure fall. We're still seeing pressure falls, albeit gradual, despite the lack of surface winds. It plays into the point above, but I think this is more stable in structure than we'd otherwise see. 

 

The result is a truly massive wind field that will lead to significant coastal issues, high surf (especially in Nova Scotia). Rain and wind will depend on track, but let's look at the two "camps". These are 925mb winds. Tried pulling 950mb winds from Plymouth, but couldn't figure it out lol. 

The GFS, which is pretty east and in line with the current NHC track, at 12z Saturday

Obviously this isn't mixing all the way down, but it's probably a mess for Maine and NS, and even across New England you're getting some stiff breezes.

Any ticks west with a strong wind field aloft increases the gusts at least coastal ENE will see. Look at the Euro. 

 

It has already been talked about, but with rain this week and more tomorrow, it could be messy for us southerners with a further west track. Even if it doesn't, to Ryan's point, you can see in later frames how winds stay elevated aloft on the backside of Lee. 

Maine seems locked for an impactful event along with Nova Scotia, but outside of that area, even though it doesn't look high end as currently modeled, there are signs that there could be some decent impacts for part of the area. 

[weatherwiz]

The wind field is insane. Hurricane force winds outwards of 125 miles with tropical storm 240 miles

[tunafish]

6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’m @ misquamicut beach today and tomorrow , had some fun with a consistent waist high swell today with occasional head high sets (just bodysurfing ) . Remember folks no lifeguards @ beach so if you go in stay alert (nobody else is probably going in but me lol) and look for rip currents (they aren’t hard to identify ) in light wind conditions 

be heading to RI Friday and Hampton (NH) sat for the real big stuff 

Hitting up my local beach on Thursday (Higgins).  Sage advice for those who only swim/body surf in optimal summer conditions.

[Damage In Tolland]

Much left to dive into and track . A lot of potential without a LF

[Torch Tiger]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

I like this guy. He doesn't hedge too much.

Yeah he knows his stuff, but it's a broad statement.  'concerns it's possibly headed towards new england..' fine but even if it's a minor couple hour wobble, it verifies. 

[tunafish]

@WxWatcher007 thanks, I got ya.  Just casually throwing out emoji reactions.

 

Appreciate all your analysis from the start on this one.  It's been both educational and helpful.

[ineedsnow]

eye finally came out

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

eye finally came out

Congrats. I hope he is free now to be himself. 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Congrats. I hope he is free now to be himself. 

Dendy erased my post lol. Yours survived . Interesting