Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[drstuess]

Hurricane wind radii out close to 80 miles, which matches Bill. Should be solid wave wise, better than Franklin.

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[Typhoon Tip]

I almost wanna do a surf chase ...  I haven't done that in years. Not really there for the storm itself, but just to ogle coastal impact. 

[WxWatcher007]

Really fascinating stuff here

OFCL=NHC
HFAI=HAFS-A
HFBI=HAFS-B
HWFI=HWRF
HMNI=HMON
CTCI=COAMPS-TC

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Euro 6 Z Ens

Man, lets get that 3-4 months from now.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Really fascinating stuff here

OFCL=NHC
HFAI=HAFS-A
HFBI=HAFS-B
HWFI=HWRF
HMNI=HMON
CTCI=COAMPS-TC

 

Ha ha ... lol, just got done wondering if the HAFS-A and B were better solutions for the time being. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Don't disagree in general. 

The 'stress' of (shear+ EWR)/2   results in functional citizen that still has PTSD triggers.  LOL.

Anyway ... I have almost never seen a hurricane achieve the same wind max post a EWR, regardless of particular case stresses. They are almost always slightly to more obviously not as deep in the pressure well, while also slightly to more obviously weaker with wind fields.  But here is the interesting thing - they are not "weaker" cyclones.  By spreading their cyclostrophic energy over a broader area, post EWR, they actually have the same or even greater ISE.

There's a physical reason for that, which can be explained in relatively simple terminology.

The EWR is a way to spread the gradient out in all directions.  If a hurricane reaches a deep well in the atmosphere at a small to mid-sized t-cyclone, this can become too intensely unbalanced against the ambient atmospheric pressure surrounding the storm.  The centrifugal force that 'opens up the eye' is overwhelmed. 

But the ongoing storm's momentum/mechanics are conserved ... so a resolution to this problem is the EWR.  By widening the eye, no longer exceeds some critical ratio of surrounding pressure medium with respect to the core - and the circulation stabilizes at a larger size - lower wind velocity, around a larger circumference achieves the same ISE ( or even more) but is 'balanced' against the surrounding storm medium.

So it is a bit technical ... but I tried to tone it down.   

So, ...this is where your shear showed up. It sort of intervened at that critical vulnerable time.  The storm got larger, but the core disruption can't find the post EWR stable attributes because it's partially uncoupled within the total circulation manifold -  this part is a bit more suppositional. 

Doesn't mean Lee won't 'reconnect' and fall back in love... ( 115 is a better relationship than I've ever found!)  But it's moving slow.  I wonder what the thermocline is in that region and if it can whirl around at 110 mph forever without it up chucking colder water and choking in its own vomit.

Nailed it.

Yes.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Really fascinating stuff here

OFCL=NHC
HFAI=HAFS-A
HFBI=HAFS-B
HWFI=HWRF
HMNI=HMON
CTCI=COAMPS-TC

 

So the worst performing hurricane models are the ones that support the euro? Lol 

[Modfan2]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I almost wanna do a surf chase ...  I haven't done that in years. Not really there for the storm itself, but just to ogle coastal impact. 

Meet @Ginx snewx down In Westerly.

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So the worst performing hurricane models are the ones that support the euro? Lol 

Yup  

[ariof]

NAM says enjoy a breezy, dry Saturday.

[Typhoon Tip]

24 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Really fascinating stuff here

OFCL=NHC
HFAI=HAFS-A
HFBI=HAFS-B
HWFI=HWRF
HMNI=HMON
CTCI=COAMPS-TC

 

It's actually more interesting that the climate based and official (NHC) aren't terribly better, either.

That's possibly telling as to this one's 'historic-based irrelevancy'  ... nice way of suggesting 'bias' in general.

[weatherwiz]

Saturday is going to certainly be a fall like day 

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, ariof said:

NAM says enjoy a breezy, dry Saturday.

but its the NAM and fwiw did come NW a bit if you got back and fourth between 6z 84 and 12z 78 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So the worst performing hurricane models are the ones that support the euro? Lol 

Not even close. 

[weatherwiz]

I am going to lay out in the hammock Saturday with beer and let the stiff winds from Lee slowly rock me back and forth and play a lullaby on my phone so I gently fall asleep.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

21 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

but its the NAM and fwiw did come NW a bit if you got back and fourth between 6z 84 and 12z 78 

It’s ovah’ 

[WxWatcher007]

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's actually more interesting that the climate based and official (NHC) aren't terribly better, either.

That's possibly telling as to this one's 'historic-based irrelevancy'  ... nice way of suggesting 'bias' in general.

Yeah I thought the model performance as a whole was better than usual but the reality is more messy. 

[ineedsnow]

Big shift west on the ICON not enough here but Maine does good 

[WxWatcher007]

You can see wonky stuff with the op runs, but the ensembles are pretty split. EPS at 06z is even more west than they were before. At least in terms of western members. It’s an odd outlier. 

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

You can see wonky stuff with the op runs, but the ensembles are pretty split. EPS at 06z is even more west than they were before. At least in terms of western members. It’s an odd outlier. 

In my inexperienced opinion, it seems like much of the wonky stuff is tied into interaction with the front/trough progressing across the Northeast tomorrow. Too me at least, that accounts for alot of the wiggles back and forth on OP guidance. While both the NAM and GFS sort of weaken the trough and de-amplify a bit, there are some disagreements into how quickly this happens and the extent and that could play a big roll in how far west Lee will get. 

If we see see towards the western envelope, I think it's something into extreme western Nova Scotia or the eye just west of the actual land. I don't think we will see a final solution any more west than this. 

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

You can see wonky stuff with the op runs, but the ensembles are pretty split. EPS at 06z is even more west than they were before. At least in terms of western members. It’s an odd outlier. 

The very active 0Z EPS still had only (4) 8% of members hit the US outside of ME. The 6Z EPS had 11 (22%)! That is by far the highest % with US landfalls outside of ME for any EPS.

[CoastalWx]

GFS will be west as compared to 00z. Probably not like Euro.

 

My guess is a compromise, but not sure that is exciting for many.

[ineedsnow]

Gfs is slower so far

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS will be west as compared to 00z. Probably not like Euro.

 

My guess is a compromise, but not sure that is exciting for many.

Trending in the right direction atleast

[CoastalWx]

Still pretty far east. Thought it may hook being slower.

[dendrite]

I'm hoping to gust to 25mph with the CAA.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Still pretty far east. Thought it may hook being slower.

Between 72 and 78 it jumped north

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'm hoping to gust to 25mph with the CAA.

Keep hoping.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Between 72 and 78 it jumped north

It's far east. A nice but breezy Saturday for many. 

[dryslot]

12z GFS, Yes slower, Brings lee a bit west of 06z