Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[WxWatcher007]

Just interesting to see the Euro/EPS make these kind of shifts. 00z GFS was west, but only a tick. About to find out if 06z will come west too. 

[Lava Rock]

Looks like first trough is faster to exit and upstream trough is deeper. Closest approach since Sat 12z run. Outer Cape would get clobbered.
Makes landfall ~Portland-Brunswick ME then buzzsaws ME coast

I'll take a pass on that one

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[Damage In Tolland]

8 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I expect to wake up to a “ significant “ west trend on most guidance tonight. Based off of EPS, cane models and the trogh dig, ridge strengthening and storm slowing that the globals only now .. and slowly at that.. will begin to pick up on. 

These west trends are not surprising and were expected. My suspicion is they’re not done yet 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

These west trends are not surprising and were expected. My suspicion is they’re not done yet 

Congrats Scooter and all our EMA friends. Chase on the Cape

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Congrats Scooter and all our EMA friends. Chase on the Cape

Yup I’m making plans to head east . I may stop in S Wey to help him board up windows and secure loose objects  Definitely jealous 

[WxWatcher007]

Euro west at 00z. GFS east at 06z. lol 

[WxWatcher007]

At 18z Saturday. Just a wee bit of difference.

 

[Ginx snewx]

Save a horse Don. Always 

[MJO812]

Euro is a big outlier right now. GFS and GEFS shifted east.

Euro will fold at 12z. What a shame how awful this model has become.

[MarkO]

It's all going to come down to Lee's forward speed.

[greenmtnwx]

This is and always has been a Canadian Maritime storm. The one behind it could be more interesting though.

[CoastalWx]

Tough to buy euro right now

[ineedsnow]

6z GEFS members have some hitting SNE again

[SouthCoastMA]

We all know the deal by now. If the Euro is on an island, you punt to Jupiter

[amarshall]

Just an outside observer but all week I’ve read GEFS is wrong ride the Euro . Then overnight board sentiment has flip flopped and now Euro is an outlier ride the GEFS. Can’t wait for snow season.


.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

We all know the deal by now. If the Euro is on an island, you punt to Jupiter

What a shame…nailed Sandy from more than a week out…the good old days. 

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, amarshall said:

Just an outside observer but all week I’ve read GEFS is wrong ride the Euro . Then overnight board sentiment has flip flopped and now Euro is an outlier ride the GEFS. Can’t wait for snow season.


.

Euro is trash. Maybe gfs is too Far East, but I don’t buy the euro. 

[amarshall]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is trash. Maybe gfs is too Far East, but I don’t buy the euro. 

We have a lot riding on this. 4 oyster farms on Cape Cod and one in Damariscotta River Maine.  Pulling all the boats/flippers and anything not strapped down Thursday/Friday

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is trash. Maybe gfs is too Far East, but I don’t buy the euro. 

If the Euro had support than you can take it serious but it has no support.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

If the Euro had support than you can take it serious but it has no support.

A couple GEFS members at 6z headed that way.. onto 12z

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, amarshall said:

We have a lot riding on this. 4 oyster farms on Cape Cod and one in Damariscotta River Maine.  Pulling all the boats/flippers and anything not strapped down Thursday/Friday

They’ll be some winds and waves likely at both places. We’ll see what today brings and I’ll have no problem admitting being incorrect if everything  is west, but it’s an outlier at the moment.

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

A couple GEFS members at 6z headed that way.. onto 12z

Meh enjoy tracking this 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

6z GEFS members have some hitting SNE again

Yup 

[ROOSTA]

A brushing. Industrial strength wire brush. ATT
Not an OTS solution, not a direct hit.
Subject to adjust accordingly. NEXT

[ineedsnow]

6z Euro gets down to 924mb

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

They’ll be some winds and waves likely at both places. We’ll see what today brings and I’ll have no problem admitting being incorrect if everything  is west, but it’s an outlier at the moment.

Agreed…definitely an outlier at the moment.  So sad, because there was a time that if the Euro came in with that type of solution at this lead…you could bet the others would follow hard. Let’s see if it can sniff out a coop here? 

[WinterWolf]

31 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z Euro gets down to 924mb

Lol…that’s probably wrong too. 

[SouthCoastMA]

crazy the speed differences at 72h between the 6z Euro and 6z GFS. 

GFS is a lot faster, about 100 miles further N

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…that’s probably wrong too. 

Yeah it won't get that strong.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it won't get that strong.

Ya no way. Euro all F’d up in every way.