Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[shawnmov]

16 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Insurance Co. SUCK!
I was in the hospital for an extended stay, triple bypass. I had a leak in the bedroom bath, came back to mold everywhere. I contracted ServPro (i would never recommend) Claim adjuster came out and approved claim. I could go on...8 months later, 35k lighter. Insurance paid dime to dollar. I considered a lawyer...
Next time I will get 100% cost of repair!   

LEE TRACK:  40/70 or bust.

Exactly.  Example:  That windstorm we had two days before Christmas Eve this year dropped a tree on my car - $16K of damage.  Was my only claim in 15 years of being with Progressive and they dropped me immediately after that.  They did pay up, but gave me a notice of non-renewal and my renewal date was in 30 days.  

[WxWatcher007]

[Ginx snewx]

7 months to get reimbursed for my roof damage from Irene but they paid in full  11k

[Lava Rock]

Wouldn't mind running the genny for a bit, but don't want to have to pull the boat early

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

22 minutes ago, shawnmov said:

Exactly.  Example:  That windstorm we had two days before Christmas Eve this year dropped a tree on my car - $16K of damage.  Was my only claim in 15 years of being with Progressive and they dropped me immediately after that.  They did pay up, but gave me a notice of non-renewal and my renewal date was in 30 days.  

Yeah, you can almost guarantee you are getting dropped if you file a claim. Crazy.

[metagraphica]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I mean I posted it earlier in the other thread but a guy I work with had his home damaged by a fallen tree during a t storm this summer and the insurance wants to give him like 5% of what it’s going to cost to fix it.

Insurance is great in theory, never in practice.

 

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It's a scam. 

 

47 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Insurance Co. SUCK!
I was in the hospital for an extended stay, triple bypass. I had a leak in the bedroom bath, came back to mold everywhere. I contracted ServPro (i would never recommend) Claim adjuster came out and approved claim. I could go on...8 months later, 35k lighter. Insurance paid dime to dollar. I considered a lawyer...
Next time I will get 100% cost of repair!  

 

27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

7 months to get reimbursed for my roof damage from Irene but they paid in full  11k

I know not everyone can get it, but if you're in the military or a vet, or married someone who is, USAA is THE insurance to get.  Zero issues putting in claims for my cars. 1 deer strike $7k and one parking lot fender bender $3.5k two years apart paid in less than a week each time.  Another time 10+ years ago I was in fight with a pickup truck fender while riding my bicycle.  Carbon fiber frame snapped in two.  USAA homeowners coverage paid current market value for a replacement frame and parts even though it was a 4 year old bike and I wasn't anywhere near my house when it happened.

There's a reason other insurance companies have the nick names they do:   Snake Farm, AllSnake, etc...

In Lee related news, looks like the ERC is well underway.  Perhaps tomorrow AM we'll wake to a much larger eye.  Always love the way those look in the early AM.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

That's what I was afraid of. Thank you .

Maybe.   More likely it's what white pine does, and though it seems a bit early, so do leaves on most of the other trees around here - more tired-looking than colored.  Needles on white pine grow in year 1 then are dropped at the end of the 2nd summer, usually around the end of September.  Needle cast (there are several fungal species involved) generally takes out the overwintered needles while the new ones are partially grown, with the infected needles falling mainly in June.  I would be a lot more concerned if the brown was at the branch tips instead of on the 2nd-year foliage that's about run its course anyway.  (Trivia note:  Some needles on the main stem hang on into a 3rd summer.)

[tamarack]

23 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

 

 

 

I know not everyone can get it, but if you're in the military or a vet, or married someone who is, USAA is THE insurance to get.  Zero issues putting in claims for my cars. 1 deer strike $7k and one parking lot fender bender $3.5k two years apart paid in less than a week each time.  Another time 10+ years ago I was in fight with a pickup truck fender while riding my bicycle.  Carbon fiber frame snapped in two.  USAA homeowners coverage paid current market value for a replacement frame and parts even though it was a 4 year old bike and I wasn't anywhere near my house when it happened.

There's a reason other insurance companies have the nick names they do:   Snake Farm, AllSnake, etc...

In Lee related news, looks like the ERC is well underway.  Perhaps tomorrow AM we'll wake to a much larger eye.  Always love the way those look in the early AM.

Consumer Reports puts USAA head-and-shoulders above the rest of insurers.  Unfortunately, my brothers being vets doesn't qualify me, but our carrier has used us well, though our rates have (unsurprisingly) gone up.  Our Forester got hit in Nov 2021 and again the following April, and we were technically at fault - in both cases we're confident the other drivers were going too fast for conditions, but it's not provable.  Each accident did about $6k to our car and the insurance company approved the repair costs and cut the check in timely fashion.

We highly doubt that our insurance will be an issue due to Lee.  

[dryslot]

Getting inside the cone albeit far west at the moment, Still on a WNW track as well.

5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 11
Location: 23.6°N 64.2°W
Moving: WNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 948 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

7 months to get reimbursed for my roof damage from Irene but they paid in full  11k

Did they drop you immediately after.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Getting inside the cone albeit far west at the moment, Still on a WNW track as well.

5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 11
Location: 23.6°N 64.2°W
Moving: WNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 948 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

Enjoy!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Enjoy!

Don't lose hope. '38 is still in play:

 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Enjoy!

Going to need this to come 100mi or so more west for anything more then a high end nor'easter

[WeatherHappens]

It's sucking me back in. DAMN IT!!! lol

[ineedsnow]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Going to need this to come 100mi or so more west for anything more then a high end nor'easter

plenty of time

[WxWatcher007]

14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Going to need this to come 100mi or so more west for anything more then a high end nor'easter

Agree

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Going to need this to come 100mi or so more west for anything more then a high end nor'easter

In summer with fully leafed trees and saturated ground. 50-65mph gusts will do all sorts of damage. That’s what I was hoping for here . I’ll never understand how wx hobbyists don’t root for extremes . There’s no other reason to follow weather . Not saying that’s you.. just in general 

[Torch Tiger]

Trash model I know, and maybe posted already but JMA is pretty far west, nearly south of CC.

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

24 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Going to need this to come 100mi or so more west for anything more then a high end nor'easter

Even at that, it would still be nbd for the interior.

[WinterWolf]

There Will Be changes between now and Saturday…when does the forecast at 5 days out stay exactly as it is?  Never. 
 

The changes coming just may not be what you want…depending on ones perspective?  

[Sn0waddict]

Icon is actually a little further east of its 12z run.  Into NS

[MJO812]

Icon further east

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

There Will Be changes between now and Saturday…when does the forecast at 5 days out stay exactly as it is?  Never. 
 

The changes coming just may not be what you want…depending on ones perspective?  

That’s the only guarantee. The track is not locked. West or east. 

Also—it ain’t what it used to be. You hate to see it. 
 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Why are we not solely using the tropical models ?

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That’s the only guarantee. The track is not locked. West or east. 

Also—it ain’t what it used to be. You hate to see it. 
 

 

I’ve been saying this for years…yet some still defend it to no end. It’s pathetic now more times than not. 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why are we not solely using the tropical models ?

Because you get a better forecast utilizing all of the guidance. Hurricane models can be great at intensity and structural changes, but more prone to swings on track. Globals are often off on intensity but can be great with track. Spaghetti models can be solid, but I wouldn’t rely on them solely. When you read the NHC discussions, they’re looking at everything and accounting for the various model biases/outliers. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

20 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Even at that, it would still be nbd for the interior.

COC blocked:

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

COC blocked:

Yep this is coming east on gfs

[Torch Tiger]

Yeah almost north of Bermuda at 90 hr   18z gfs what could go wrong?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep this is coming east on gfs

He gone. Great weekend on tap. COC stretch coming up, starting overnight Wed.