Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

[WxWatcher007]

With guidance coalescing around the closest approach of Lee occurring in 5-6 days, it's time for a breakout thread. 

This all started with an extraordinarily strong signal for a long track major hurricane that produced, leading to the development of a CV system that attained category five intensity briefly before shear and internal processes (ERCs) weakened the system. Lee regained major hurricane status, but has likely peaked. 

We've been tracking this one seemingly forever, and it is now starting to slow its forward speed as it rounds the periphery of a ridge and gets drawn northward due to an incoming trough. 

 

Normally, a turn northward at this longitude would almost certainly have meant a recurve out to sea, but guidance has gradually trended toward a scenario where the original trough above lifts out quickly, allowing for an Atlantic ridge to build back in and effectively block a clear path out to sea. 

 

As that happens, another trough swings in from the Midwest, drawing it further north or potentially on a NW/NNW heading rather than kicking it OTS. Recent operational runs, which are further west than their ensembles, have brought a close approach to the Cape and potential landfall, if not already transitioned to an extratropical system, into Maine or Nova Scotia. 

 

Because Lee is expected to increase its wind field as it turns northward, and as it begins to undergo extratropical transition, even a close approach can be impactful, particularly for the Cape and eastern New England. 

There remains uncertainty on the exact track and the intensity of Lee when in closest proximity.

 

For those following, I have been putting out odds for a while now on Lee's future track. This morning I'm at the following: 

• 50% LF risk Atlantic Canada (Nova Scotia): It’s becoming increasingly likely that the second trough pulls this on an extended northward heading and Lee will not be able to fully escape, even if there is a last minute east trend.
   
• 35% New England (5% SNE/30% ENE): ENE remains much more favored because the ensembles even as they tick west have not meaningfully put SNE at landfall risk. A scrape of the Cape or hit in Maine would be most likely currently IMO.  
   
• 15% OTS: Respect still needs to be given to sharper than anticipated eastward shifts, but this looks increasingly unlikely. 

Regardless of what Lee does, we already know how this thread will flow. Team Meh and Team Hit shall battle. 

Let the crescendo of the roller coaster ride begin. 

[weatherwiz]

Excellent opening post. 

Cue the media hype now as the cone of uncertainty is now tickling parts of the region. NHC has Lee as a category 1 (80 mph) Saturday AM

[ineedsnow]

[CoastalWx]

GFS will be east I think.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS will be east I think.

not by much but Margot being a little further west is messing up the ridge I think

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

not by much but Margot being a little further west is messing up the ridge I think

east of 00z, close to 6z.

[ineedsnow]

might be a sharper west turn this run

[dryslot]

12z GFS Looks about the same to me as 06z, Just 3mb weaker.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

might be a sharper west turn this run

Really slow just off ME coast.

[dryslot]

No LF in the US this run, But its crawling along towards in the Bay of Fundy.

[Professional Lurker]

Weenie party on Cadillac Mountain?

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[Sn0waddict]

Looks like cmc will make landfall into NS but it’s slowing down as well.

[NoCORH4L]

How important is the 70W requirement still? 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Nice op east trends:

[dryslot]

Going to get a bit windy and wet verbatim for eastern areas.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

How important is the 70W requirement still? 

It’s not going to happen so I don’t think it matters as much now. The earlier turn is kind of baked into the models. 

Like @ORH_wxman said the other day, get this 100-150 miles west and it’s a lot more impactful/interesting. Not sure if that happens, though. 

[CoastalWx]

Kind of a snoozer outside coastline 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Going to get a bit windy and wet verbatim for eastern areas.

Like a typical fall coastal. 

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Kind of a snoozer outside coastline 

We barely even get rain back here verbatim. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Like a typical fall coastal. 

Pretty much.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Regardless of any wind/rain aspects ... the primary draw in terms of this thing's entertainment value may be the surf/beach erosion.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I posted about this subject matter in the tropical thread ...  but, if this transitions the western semi-circle winds will lift off the deck and it won't be very memorable.

[CoastalWx]

GEFs east too. Good bye and good luck.

[Torch Tiger]

Zzzzz

[Damage In Tolland]

Here’s what we know and can lock 

https://x.com/ryanbretonwx/status/1701268492467556577?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

https://x.com/dhtheweathernut/status/1701174487310372890?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[Damage In Tolland]

Good luck out east and Mainers. Wish we lived there .

https://x.com/mikemasco/status/1701268089667571892?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[WeatherHappens]

I'll take a strong nor'easter her in E Mass and I'll be happy with that.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WeatherHappens said:

I'll take a strong nor'easter her in E Mass and I'll be happy with that.

May not get that.

[CoastalWx]

Don't worry, GFS gives us a second chance.