New England Met Autumn 2023 Banter

[CoastalWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

I don’t know, I feel like Coastalwx has been on the PVD running cold for a while.  I don’t disagree with most of what you said but I do think the long time met posters on here are pretty unbiased and able to sniff out errors.

@CoastalWx @ORH_wxman @OceanStWx @dendrite are some of the best and finding cold or warm biases and you won’t find them with an agenda in either way.  

Some of those MADIS assessments showed a big jump or discontinuity over a short time too. That's another red flag. Sometimes they drift over time. 

We aren't nitpicking over margin of error stuff. These are significant deviations it seems from local obs. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I don’t know, I feel like Coastalwx has been on the PVD running cold for a while.  I don’t disagree with most of what you said but I do think the long time met posters on here are pretty unbiased and able to sniff out errors.

@CoastalWx @ORH_wxman @OceanStWx @dendrite are some of the best and finding cold or warm biases and you won’t find them with an agenda in either way.  

The thing about individual sites in New England is that it’s very easy to compare data…we have a fairly dense network of climate sites and mesonets.
 

PVD is absolutely running too cold too. 

There is plenty of empirical evidence for both PVD and ORH biases. If one wants to ignore that empirical evidence, then that is fine…just don’t ask others to agree with you unless you provide some strong empirical evidence to counter those claims. 

[ORH_wxman]

I also think KBOS record in 2021 was erroneous too. @CoastalWx and I talked a lot about that one at the time. 
 

They fixed that ASOS fairly quickly though so the bias didn’t last beyond 2021. 
 

 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I also think KBOS record in 2021 was erroneous too. @CoastalWx and I talked a lot about that one at the time. 
 

They fixed that ASOS fairly quickly though so the bias didn’t last beyond 2021. 
 

 

LOL I wonder when this was fixed. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL I wonder when this was fixed. 

 

Oh that’s right. 2019 was the big one. There was something going on in 2021 too but not as ridiculous as that drift in 2018-19

[Ginx snewx]

The climate changer stepped in a big pile of shit. Both ORH and PVD have been called out for months and months in here. 

[dryslot]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

   Never let facts get in the way of an agenda. 

This actually happened at Logan too. They also had fog with a T/Td spread of 3F. It was called out my many Mets. Something finally changed and the results have been much better.

 

This has nothing to do with biases or political nonsense. It's about getting data right. I just said how PVD is running cool. 

Climate Arranger?

[radarman]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The empirical evidence for ORH running too warm is overwhelming. I’m not sure how you can look at data for more than a few minutes and conclude otherwise. Even if you do not trust MADIS, just compare sthe ORH monthly departures to other first order climate stations in SNE and you’ll see consistently that ORH runs warmer. They are also consistently warmer than just about every single mesonet site at similar elevation near them. I’ve looked at this extensively since discovering the issue. 

 

Here’s the MADIS graph on a longer timeline. Pretty obvious step change in 2020 that also aligns with ORH’s divergence from other first order sites on monthly departure  

Not disagreeing with the idea that it's running hot, but could the fact that it's effectively a hilltop location factor in?  I feel like this year especially we've had decent radiating conditions at times but not a lot of CAA.  Are there any other trustworthy coops similarly situated relative to the surroundings?  What say KTOL?

[dryslot]

A true hero, Thom took 7 bullets to save the kids

 

 

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

A true hero, Thom took 7 bullets to save the kids

 

 

Amazing bravery and valor!

[ORH_wxman]

11 hours ago, radarman said:

Not disagreeing with the idea that it's running hot, but could the fact that it's effectively a hilltop location factor in?  I feel like this year especially we've had decent radiating conditions at times but not a lot of CAA.  Are there any other trustworthy coops similarly situated relative to the surroundings?  What say KTOL?

For a shorter time period you could explain away divergence from other first order climo sites and chalk it up to certain patterns being warmer or cooler relative to average for the coast, interior, or valleys vs hilltops, but this is basically 3 years worth of data where it is running warm.
 

Maybe when I have time I’ll plot the monthly departures for all SNE sites on a single graph and the visuals for ORH will really stand out for the last 3 years and more recently we’ll see PVD going the opposite direction too cold. 
 

We’ve also compared KORH to mesonets nearby at similar elevation when airmasses are well-mixed…esp during the Feb cold outbreak when it was strong CAA where radiational cooling wouldn’t be applicable and ORH was running warmer than every single one of them. So even when I tried to debunk the MADIS divergence that started 3 years ago using alternate methods, I was unable to. 

[CoastalWx]

38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

For a shorter time period you could explain away divergence from other first order climo sites and chalk it up to certain patterns being warmer or cooler relative to average for the coast, interior, or valleys vs hilltops, but this is basically 3 years worth of data where it is running warm.
 

Maybe when I have time I’ll plot the monthly departures for all SNE sites on a single graph and the visuals for ORH will really stand out for the last 3 years and more recently we’ll see PVD going the opposite direction too cold. 
 

We’ve also compared KORH to mesonets nearby at similar elevation when airmasses are well-mixed…esp during the Feb cold outbreak when it was strong CAA where radiational cooling wouldn’t be applicable and ORH was running warmer than every single one of them. So even when I tried to debunk the MADIS divergence that started 3 years ago using alternate methods, I was unable to. 

I noticed yesterday it was about 1-2F behind stations at similar elevations. 

[Layman]

22 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Interesting article ... I suspect many in this social media engagement have ruminated this, too -

 

https://getpocket.com/explore/item/the-strange-blissfulness-of-storms?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-us

I like these kinds of articles and enjoyed reading this - thanks for sharing.  

Personally, I feel like the extent gone to trying to figure out what causes the "feelings" associated with weather is akin to manipulating financial data to get a desired result.  It didn't necessarily happen in this case so that's not a direct apples to apples comparison, but that's how I was viewing it.  Largely due to my belief that the reason extreme weather has an emotional impact is from the anticipation/preparation, adrenaline, unknown outcomes, etc.  Kind of like an amusement park ride.  I'm not sure this holds for all kinds of extreme weather.  I know for me, if there's something coming with flooding rains and damaging winds the excitement is due more to fear and worry rather than looking forward to seeing my or my neighbors house/properties get wrecked in a storm.  

More-so in winter than in the summer, when the potential for a big storm is on the horizon, I absolutely love the anticipation, preparation, hunkering down, the milk/bread acquisition quest (I kid!), and awaiting first flakes.  For some reason, it feels easier to prepare for a big winter storm than a ravaging high wind/rain summer storm.  Although, some of those pics from out west last year were downright frightening!  I couldn't imagine being essentially trapped under dozens of feet of snow covering your entire home.  Crazy.  

[Cold Miser]

12 hours ago, dryslot said:

A true hero, Thom took 7 bullets to save the kids

 

 

This gave me goosebumps.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

18 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Some of those MADIS assessments showed a big jump or discontinuity over a short time too. That's another red flag. Sometimes they drift over time. 

We aren't nitpicking over margin of error stuff. These are significant deviations it seems from local obs. 

It just seems in a lot of cases these claims are made in bad faith. Our current equipment and measuring ability is better than ever. You can even quantify some of the impacts of moving the station from the City of Worcester to ORH, some 400-500 feet increase in elevation. During the period from 1949-1961, the Worcester City station ran 2.7F warmer for maximum temperatures, 0.6F cooler for minimum temperatures, and averaged 1.0F warmer for the daily mean. That's a big difference, especially for daytime maximum, so I would expect a disproportionate amount of record maxima to belong to the city station. Fortunately, the elevation change was somewhat offset by the more favorable radiational cooling at the city station [it looks like the station may have been sited in a neighborhood, not downtown]. This is not even looking into whether there were time of observation biases in the earlier city record.

From the mid/late 1980s to the mid/late 1990s, the first-order (airport) sites utilized the HO-83 hygrothermometer. There's a plethora of academic research showing these read as much as 2C too warm, particularly on sunny days with minimal winds. I know this, ironically, because deniers made a big deal about it in the 2000s saying the recent warming was inflated - even though this was only affecting a small subset of climate stations. Of course, now they point to years like 1988 and 1995 to say it's been hot before. There were a lot of heat records set in this period in the U.S., particularly at these first order sites. Most likely, some of those heat records were inflated, but we're not allowed to say that.

[Layman]

35 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It just seems in a lot of cases these claims are made in bad faith. Our current equipment and measuring ability is better than ever. You can even quantify some of the impacts of moving the station from the City of Worcester to ORH, some 400-500 feet increase in elevation. During the period from 1949-1961, the Worcester City station ran 2.7F warmer for maximum temperatures, 0.6F cooler for minimum temperatures, and averaged 1.0F warmer for the daily mean. That's a big difference, especially for daytime maximum, so I would expect a disproportionate amount of record maxima to belong to the city station. Fortunately, the elevation change was somewhat offset by the more favorable radiational cooling at the city station [it looks like the station may have been sited in a neighborhood, not downtown]. This is not even looking into whether there were time of observation biases in the earlier city record.

From the mid/late 1980s to the mid/late 1990s, the first-order (airport) sites utilized the HO-83 hygrothermometer. There's a plethora of academic research showing these read as much as 2C too warm, particularly on sunny days with minimal winds. I know this, ironically, because deniers made a big deal about it in the 2000s saying the recent warming was inflated - even though this was only affecting a small subset of climate stations. Of course, now they point to years like 1988 and 1995 to say it's been hot before. There were a lot of heat records set in this period in the U.S., particularly at these first order sites. Most likely, some of those heat records were inflated, but we're not allowed to say that.

"Deniers" - is this a scientific term the elite intelligentia use to describe the lowly and uneducated who reside below them in the social strata?

[TheClimateChanger]

2 minutes ago, Layman said:

"Deniers" - is this a scientific term the elite intelligentia use to describe the lowly and uneducated who reside below them in the social strata?

Well, I wouldn't call myself elite or intelligentia [sic], I just use it to mean "one who denies, e.g. Holocaust denier."

[ORH_wxman]

58 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It just seems in a lot of cases these claims are made in bad faith.

Which is not a valid response to an empirical argument…that’s why many posters including myself and CoastalWx jumped on you. You assumed there was some sort of bias driving the argument…and that’s fine to assume it since everyone has biases…but don’t expect to be taken seriously if you aren’t going to engage in the actual empirical discussion. Regardless of our biases, the empirical data is what drives the argument toward the truth. 
 

It sounds like you are pretty comfortable discussing data and metadata about stations. So it is surprising you wouldn’t just refute the ORH and PVD claims with actual empirical data. 

[CoastalWx]

I want to get a wood stove, but curious about the best ways to distribute the heat. So I have a 12" space between ceiling and various entry ways between rooms. I'm worried that the heat gets "trapped" by the 12" space and does not make its way around the house.  Is this an unwarranted fear? I knew someone that cut open vents to allow the heat to go upstairs, but I would rather not do that. Just curious on others thoughts. 

I would either put it in where my current fireplace exists, or have a smaller stove in our addition that acts as a living room. Or, I could get an insert for my current fireplace. Curious as to what makes sense. 

[Roger]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I want to get a wood stove, but curious about the best ways to distribute the heat. So I have a 12" space between ceiling and various entry ways between rooms. I'm worried that the heat gets "trapped" by the 12" space and does not make its way around the house.  Is this an unwarranted fear? I knew someone that cut open vents to allow the heat to go upstairs, but I would rather not do that. Just curious on others thoughts. 

I would either put it in where my current fireplace exists, or have a smaller stove in our addition that acts as a living room. Or, I could get an insert for my current fireplace. Curious as to what makes sense. 

We have a couple of small fans that blow the heat out of our living room into the parts of the house. You could maybe hang one near the stairs and have it blow the heat up.

[Layman]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I want to get a wood stove, but curious about the best ways to distribute the heat. So I have a 12" space between ceiling and various entry ways between rooms. I'm worried that the heat gets "trapped" by the 12" space and does not make its way around the house.  Is this an unwarranted fear? I knew someone that cut open vents to allow the heat to go upstairs, but I would rather not do that. Just curious on others thoughts. 

I would either put it in where my current fireplace exists, or have a smaller stove in our addition that acts as a living room. Or, I could get an insert for my current fireplace. Curious as to what makes sense. 

Here's some of my experience that may be helpful to you.  We installed a wood stove (not a pellet stove, there are differences in case you didn't know) about 15 years ago.  No prior fireplace or chimney - built a hearth, put a Selkirk Metalbestos thimble through the wall and a 28' Metalbestos stack.  Double walled as required, but not insulated in it's own chimney space.  An existing fireplace with chimney as you mentioned would likely be a good place to start.  In the early season or warm-ish weather (40 and above) I have trouble getting stove started and pulling a good draft.  Other people I know don't have this issue.  Those with enclosed/insulated chimney don't seem to have this issue.  

Stove is on an outside wall at the center of the house.  We have a center stairwell and landing that's opened to both sides of the house.  3,000sqft total, stove is rated for 2,400sqft.  There's an open room at the top of the stairs with no wall so heat makes it up there.  We also have the 12" wall space you mentioned.  It doesn't really seem to affect heat traveling however, any enclosed room, or room with a door away from the stove can struggle to heat up if you're not cranking the stove.  Our downstairs is wide open on the entire side the stove is on.  That area will heat nicely into the low 80's without issue.  Far reaches of the first floor will be 20 degrees cooler on cold nights.  Upstairs is similar in bedrooms

We don't use the stove as sole heat source but it's the dominant source for sure.  Nothing beats the heat from a roaring stove.  You can burn oil all day long trying to hold something near 70 where the stove will sweat you out of the room if you let it.  

Now maintaining the stove/chimney and preparing for winter is another story.  It's a LOT of work.  You have to know and accept that going into it.  We burn both seasoned firewood and fire "bricks" made from sawdust.  Depending on the year we'll burn about 2 cord of wood and a pallet of bricks - sometimes more, sometimes less.  You're CONSTANTLY moving this stuff around and it makes a mess.  If you're planning ahead, you need to buy green wood 12+ months prior to the next season or pay up for "seasoned".  You can get burned (pun?) buying seasoned because some people don't let it dry long enough before selling it.  Burning wet wood is no good.  Leads to creosote buildup and burns poorly.  If you're buying 12 months ahead, you need to store it somewhere to dry.  Top covered, allowing air to flow through (although top covering by September 1st is the rule I typically follow).  We have a "next year" seasoning spot on the property that's bit of a hike from the house.  We have a "this year" stack about 50 feet from the house.  We've got 2 round wood racks on our covered porch.  We've got a couple pallets of bricks in the basement.  We've got a rack big enough to hold a day/nights worth of burning near the hearth.  All of this stuff gets touched and moved countless times over the entire year and especially during the burning season.  

We always ask ourselves "is this worth it?"  In the middle of winter, the answer is absolutely "Yes!"  You can't beat it.  Now, if there's a way to make the entirety of the process easier and move efficient I would do it in a heartbeat.  We're still trying to figure that out...

Hopefully this is helpful.  There's a lot to consider when going down the path of heating with wood - pellet stoves are different and have their own pros and cons, but are worthy of considering.  I'm sure others will have some decent input as well.  I'm always interested in hearing tips and tricks people have for managing their process.  

[DavisStraight]

47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I want to get a wood stove, but curious about the best ways to distribute the heat. So I have a 12" space between ceiling and various entry ways between rooms. I'm worried that the heat gets "trapped" by the 12" space and does not make its way around the house.  Is this an unwarranted fear? I knew someone that cut open vents to allow the heat to go upstairs, but I would rather not do that. Just curious on others thoughts. 

I would either put it in where my current fireplace exists, or have a smaller stove in our addition that acts as a living room. Or, I could get an insert for my current fireplace. Curious as to what makes sense. 

You can get those small corner doorway fans to move it around, but you want to get a fan to blow at the stove to get it circulation. I have an open floor plan with two stories, so I had a fire damper vent put in to get the heat upstairs, works great. I have a free stander stove in my fireplace, but you need a big opening to do that, otherwise you're better off with an insert, I've had both and prefer the heat from my free stander much better.

[Sled]

+1 for fans. you can get ones that will mount to the jamb of the entry ways up top. Also, look into an Ecofan. sits on top of your woodstove and runs on heat difference. Moves a surprising amount of air right from where it's the hottest. I point mine directly toward the weather station at ORH for maximum effect.

[DavisStraight]

3 minutes ago, Layman said:

Here's some of my experience that may be helpful to you.  We installed a wood stove (not a pellet stove, there are differences in case you didn't know) about 15 years ago.  No prior fireplace or chimney - built a hearth, put a Selkirk Metalbestos thimble through the wall and a 28' Metalbestos stack.  Double walled as required, but not insulated in it's own chimney space.  An existing fireplace with chimney as you mentioned would likely be a good place to start.  In the early season or warm-ish weather (40 and above) I have trouble getting stove started and pulling a good draft.  Other people I know don't have this issue.  Those with enclosed/insulated chimney don't seem to have this issue.  

Stove is on an outside wall at the center of the house.  We have a center stairwell and landing that's opened to both sides of the house.  3,000sqft total, stove is rated for 2,400sqft.  There's an open room at the top of the stairs with no wall so heat makes it up there.  We also have the 12" wall space you mentioned.  It doesn't really seem to affect heat traveling however, any enclosed room, or room with a door away from the stove can struggle to heat up if you're not cranking the stove.  Our downstairs is wide open on the entire side the stove is on.  That area will heat nicely into the low 80's without issue.  Far reaches of the first floor will be 20 degrees cooler on cold nights.  Upstairs is similar in bedrooms

We don't use the stove as sole heat source but it's the dominant source for sure.  Nothing beats the heat from a roaring stove.  You can burn oil all day long trying to hold something near 70 where the stove will sweat you out of the room if you let it.  

Now maintaining the stove/chimney and preparing for winter is another story.  It's a LOT of work.  You have to know and accept that going into it.  We burn both seasoned firewood and fire "bricks" made from sawdust.  Depending on the year we'll burn about 2 cord of wood and a pallet of bricks - sometimes more, sometimes less.  You're CONSTANTLY moving this stuff around and it makes a mess.  If you're planning ahead, you need to buy green wood 12+ months prior to the next season or pay up for "seasoned".  You can get burned (pun?) buying seasoned because some people don't let it dry long enough before selling it.  Burning wet wood is no good.  Leads to creosote buildup and burns poorly.  If you're buying 12 months ahead, you need to store it somewhere to dry.  Top covered, allowing air to flow through (although top covering by September 1st is the rule I typically follow).  We have a "next year" seasoning spot on the property that's bit of a hike from the house.  We have a "this year" stack about 50 feet from the house.  We've got 2 round wood racks on our covered porch.  We've got a couple pallets of bricks in the basement.  We've got a rack big enough to hold a day/nights worth of burning near the hearth.  All of this stuff gets touched and moved countless times over the entire year and especially during the burning season.  

We always ask ourselves "is this worth it?"  In the middle of winter, the answer is absolutely "Yes!"  You can't beat it.  Now, if there's a way to make the entirety of the process easier and move efficient I would do it in a heartbeat.  We're still trying to figure that out...

Hopefully this is helpful.  There's a lot to consider when going down the path of heating with wood - pellet stoves are different and have their own pros and cons, but are worthy of considering.  I'm sure others will have some decent input as well.  I'm always interested in hearing tips and tricks people have for managing their process.  

Good advice, I was going to make another post about firewood but you covered it. I get 3 cords of wood and a pallet of compressed bricks each year, used to get the overnight logs but the price got ridiculous so I buy another brand.

[DavisStraight]

2 minutes ago, Sled said:

+1 for fans. you can get ones that will mount to the jamb of the entry ways up top. Also, look into an Ecofan. sits on top of your woodstove and runs on heat difference. Moves a surprising amount of air right from where it's the hottest. I point mine directly toward the weather station at ORH for maximum effect.

What do you have for a stove? I had an insert but bought the Woodstock Progress Hybrid when they came out with them and sold the insert.

 

High Performance Soapstone Hybrid Wood Stove | Woodstove

 

 

[Sled]

I have a Jotul Firelight I use to heat my shop. Burn about 3-4 cord a year but I blow a lot of hot air right out when I run my equipment. I am morally opposed to inserts as they lack the poetry and/or magic of either a woodstove or a true fireplace. Man has to draw a line somewhere.

[DavisStraight]

Just now, Sled said:

I have a Jotul Firelight I use to heat my shop. Burn about 3-4 cord a year but I blow a lot of hot air right out when I run my equipment. I am morally opposed to inserts as they lack the poetry and/or magic of either a woodstove or a true fireplace. Man has to draw a line somewhere.

I agree that's why I got rid of the insert, the Firelight is a good stove, a friend of mine had 3 in his 5000sf house but after a few years switched over to Blaze Kings.

[Sled]

3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I agree that's why I got rid of the insert, the Firelight is a good stove, a friend of mine had 3 in his 5000sf house but after a few years switched over to Blaze Kings.

3 woodstoves? Man is committed. I went to just mini splits in my house. Power bill is a whopper in the winter but no oil bill and no mess in the house from wood. 

[ineedsnow]

just once I would want this!! Mount Rainier

 

Detailed Forecast

This Afternoon

Partly sunny, with a steady temperature around 11. Wind chill values between -4 and 1. West wind around 8 mph.

Tonight

Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6. Wind chill values between -4 and -10. West wind 7 to 12 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thursday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 10. Wind chill values between -7 and -12. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Thursday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 7. Wind chill values between -7 and -12. Breezy, with a west wind 23 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Friday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 12. Windy, with a west southwest wind 20 to 25 mph increasing to 28 to 33 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible.

Friday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 8. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 19 to 25 inches possible.

Saturday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 12. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a low around 10.

Sunday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 16. Breezy.

Sunday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a low around 12. Breezy.

Monday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 18.

Monday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a low around 13.

Tuesday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 17.

[dryslot]

Draft problems are usually caused by height issues with the chimney pipe, There's a rule of thumb for how high up and how many feet away from the peak to draft properly to prevent downdrafts.