alex Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 6 hours ago, wxeyeNH said: Alex, I'm a volcano/earthquake nerd too. I have been watching Iceland non stop. As of today, Monday that whole area is closed and evacuated. The good news is that the tremors are slowing down so the magma may not make it to the surface, hence no eruption. Enjoy the Aurora's. My sister in law just got back and Iceland was so much better than she had imagined. I love volcanoes too. Saw Yellowstone,Craters of the Moon, Stromboli (erupting), and Hawaii this year. We’ve kinda made it a year of the “volcano travel” so Iceland seemed like a good ending. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Has there been any discussion of this new model? First I hear or read about it. Why your weather forecasts may soon become more accurate (yahoo.com) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Has there been any discussion of this new model? First I hear or read about it. Why your weather forecasts may soon become more accurate (yahoo.com) Lol, this is not saying much. “GraphCast was about 10 percent more accurate than the European model on more than 90 percent of the weather variables evaluated.” The upside though is AI being Faster and using much less computing power. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Lol, this is not saying much. “GraphCast was about 10 percent more accurate than the European model on more than 90 percent of the weather variables evaluated.” The upside though is AI being Faster and using much less computing power. The headline mad it sound like they found the holy grail, I doubt it better than any of the models now in use. Just wondering if I missed a conversation about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 2 hours ago, DavisStraight said: Has there been any discussion of this new model? First I hear or read about it. Why your weather forecasts may soon become more accurate (yahoo.com) I'd like them to work more on their nowcasting. Some results are promising but it still has a quite ways to go. The benefits if they could quickly generate a highly accurate 20-30 minute nowcast would be immense. AI based methods *might* be able to pick up on convective initiation even without true data assimilation. Non AI nowcasts cannot. But AFAIK non AI methods are still outperforming AI methods right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Lol, this is not saying much. “GraphCast was about 10 percent more accurate than the European model on more than 90 percent of the weather variables evaluated.” The upside though is AI being Faster and using much less computing power. Charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 AI models still need to work on precipitation and things like anomalous events, but it’s coming. Better get good at decision support. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 Our 1 minute update radar data has a ton of potential for training ML models. Have hundreds of terabytes of it. Starting to look into it now. Recently had a paper accepted that uses a non ML approach, run in parallel with parameterizations tweaked to produce an ensemble nowcast and converted to gridded risk for stochastic routing purposes. Every minute produces an updated grid of risk for every minute from 1-20 mins. (About 2 mins latent) But a single ML based deterministic nowcast would still be better it if were accurate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: AI models still need to work on precipitation and things like anomalous events, but it’s coming. Better get good at decision support. Met industry about to shrink considerably? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supernovice Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 Watching a documentary “Buried” on Netflix. About an avalanche in 1982 and meteorology, topography, ski patrols etc… Feel like it would resonate with some on this board, worth the watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 15 hours ago, Supernovice said: Watching a documentary “Buried” on Netflix. About an avalanche in 1982 and meteorology, topography, ski patrols etc… Feel like it would resonate with some on this board, worth the watch. I'd like to see that, I watched the trailer but haven't got around to seeing it, amazing that woman was found after 5 days by the dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supernovice Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: I'd like to see that, I watched the trailer but haven't got around to seeing it, amazing that woman was found after 5 days by the dog. The whole story is just amazing/tragic. It's really well done and would highly recommend. This really becomes the basis for modern U.S. avalanche forecasting and rescue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 anyone have a suggestion for a free doppler map to replace this one? it's always out of date. looking to replace it with another for my website 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 1 hour ago, Lava Rock said: anyone have a suggestion for a free doppler map to replace this one? it's always out of date. looking to replace it with another for my website Try Weather.cod.edu 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 It doesn’t have pretty precip type beams, not that I know of, though: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=continental-conus-comp_radar-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Any birders out there know why birds of all types minus woodpeckers disappeared for the last 2 months. They have come back in full force of many varieties. The woods once again are filled with bird sounds. Our local FB group has noticed as well. Strange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Any birders out there know why birds of all types minus woodpeckers disappeared for the last 2 months. They have come back in full force of many varieties. The woods once again are filled with bird sounds. Our local FB group has noticed as well. Strange The wife and I commented on that recently here as well - specifically with regard to Cardinals. We thought it was due to us not feeding them recently. Everything seems to be back now although the Cardinals have been elusive which is really odd for our house. They're always here year round. We've had a Carolina Wren bouncing around the mulch beds the past week too which is new. Haven't seen many groups of geese but the did see an absolutely massive group heading W/SW a couple weeks ago. Probably the largest I've ever seen. Like they all got up at once and took off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, Layman said: The wife and I commented on that recently here as well - specifically with regard to Cardinals. We thought it was due to us not feeding them recently. Everything seems to be back now although the Cardinals have been elusive which is really odd for our house. They're always here year round. We've had a Carolina Wren bouncing around the mulch beds the past week too which is new. Haven't seen many groups of geese but the did see an absolutely massive group heading W/SW a couple weeks ago. Probably the largest I've ever seen. Like they all got up at once and took off. Yes we watched a massive Goose flyover a couple of weeks ago as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Any birders out there know why birds of all types minus woodpeckers disappeared for the last 2 months. They have come back in full force of many varieties. The woods once again are filled with bird sounds. Our local FB group has noticed as well. Strange We noticed the same thing in early September. The birds just see to vanish. Most have slowly returned now, but not seeing any finches or woodpeckers. Cardinal numbers also seem low as do the returning juncoes. Haven't seen any theories or explanations. Sent from my SM-A546U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 28 minutes ago, HimoorWx said: We noticed the same thing in early September. The birds just see to vanish. Most have slowly returned now, but not seeing any finches or woodpeckers. Cardinal numbers also seem low as do the returning juncoes. Haven't seen any theories or explanations. Sent from my SM-A546U using Tapatalk Means winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Means winter is over.Great. Does that mean I can skip the rest of the fall leaf cleanup? Sent from my SM-A546U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Just found one of these in the backyard. Anyone know what it might be? Sent from my SM-A546U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 1 hour ago, HimoorWx said: Just found one of these in the backyard. Anyone know what it might be? Sent from my SM-A546U using Tapatalk Black walnut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 2 hours ago, HimoorWx said: Great. Does that mean I can skip the rest of the fall leaf cleanup? Sent from my SM-A546U using Tapatalk Go straight from fall cleanup to spring prepping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Black walnut?Thanks. That's what my wife thought too. Not sure where the nearest tree is. Certainly not in our yard, but I will look around. Sent from my SM-A546U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 1 minute ago, HimoorWx said: Thanks. That's what my wife thought too. Not sure where the nearest tree is. Certainly not in our yard, but I will look around. Sent from my SM-A546U using Tapatalk Sounds like a squirrel or chippy may be trying to grow one for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 New USDA Plant Hardiness maps for CT. Nice extended growing season for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Sounds like a squirrel or chippy may be trying to grow one for you. Almost no acorns this year after a couple of big years, so maybe the critters are trying to send us a message! Sent from my SM-A546U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 2 hours ago, HimoorWx said: Thanks. That's what my wife thought too. Not sure where the nearest tree is. Certainly not in our yard, but I will look around. Sent from my SM-A546U using Tapatalk My neighbor had a walnut tree, there used to a ton of those nuts around, I guess he hated cleaning them up every year and had the tree cut down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Lol, tipping is beyond out of control. Never thought I'd see it extend to an online purchase. Seriously?Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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