New England Met Autumn 2023 Banter

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

What’s always been strange to me is those who log into a forum to be miserable. Didn’t see nearly as much of that even in our shit winters back 10-15 years ago. 

I literally had to move like 30 posts into here because an entire page and a half of the january pattern thread was just bitching and you would have no idea what is actually happening over the next 2-3 weeks based on those posts. 

Thanks for moving them here. It's easy to see something you want to respond to without realizing it's in the wrong thread...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This forum has been fully overtaken by ACATT. Cant even call a spade a spade anymore 

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, Hazey said:

Just a sign of the times. Winters are getting more fleeting. People are a lot more moodier and abrasive in the last few years. A decent winter would go a long ways if we can get one.

I see it as a sign of the times as in how certain individuals personalities have changed, and how they react to situations and other individuals.  It's quite evident even in my daily life. Dealing with attitudes of those under 30 is QUITE different to say the least. That feel or attitude seems to show up in these forums, just like our daily work life. I'd love to blame it all on social media, but that certainly isn't all that's caused it. On another note, I don't think it's logical to call recent winters fleeting as if we'll never have another good one again. I've lived through too many long stretches that were worse than this. It was only a couple years ago we had a couple that were really good, and some more than that only a couple years prior

[Hazey]

5 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

I see it as a sign of the times as in how certain individuals personalities have changed, and how they react to situations and other individuals.  It's quite evident even in my daily life. Dealing with attitudes of those under 30 is QUITE different to say the least. That feel or attitude seems to show up in these forums, just like our daily work life. I'd love to blame it all on social media, but that certainly isn't all that's caused it. On another note, I don't think it's logical to call recent winters fleeting as if we'll never have another good one again. I've lived through too many long stretches that were worse than this. It was only a couple years ago we had a couple that were really good, and some more than that only a couple years prior

Different reasons but we'll see....lol

[Spanks45]

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t think this explains our recent struggles. It hasn’t really been that warm offshore this year…we’ve had warmer in the past

 

Yeah I am not saying way above average like we have seen in past years, but even 1-2 degrees above average in marginal setups along SNE seems to be the difference. I guess my question is tomorrow for example....am I going to lose 1-3 inches of snow to taint because of warmer than average water temps? If the water temps were even just say average for this time of the year, would taint even be an issue this far north? On paper, cold airmass ahead of it, we don't have SW flow out front of it and it's January 16th, not March or November....

Meteorologically speaking, I know there are many more factors than airmass and water temps that can determine rain vs snow vs sleet in the grand scheme of our climate. My background is in Biology and Oceanography so I understand how powerful even 1 degree in a body water can be....I took an air-sea interaction course in college, but that was a long time ago, so my memory needs some refreshing from the pros here....and my approach here is not to complain or whine about it not snowing imby, but more to open a scientific conversation on why it seems our winter weather pattern down here has been all or nothing for quite sometime. Or even the so called wet/warm coldish/dry pattern has been dominant....

[CoastalWx]

Water has been AN locally last year and this year. Boston harbor is 44 last I checked. That’s mild. That’s not helping in marginal setups which have been constant for almost 2 years now. It doesn’t have to be balls cold, but there has been virtually no cold in the northeast preceding events and storm tracks have been huggers.

[qg_omega]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Water has been AN locally last year and this year. Boston harbor is 44 last I checked. That’s mild. That’s not helping in marginal setups which have been constant for almost 2 years now. It doesn’t have to be balls cold, but there has been virtually no cold in the northeast preceding events and storm tracks have been huggers.

It’s been a historic warm winter, almost no lake ice anywhere in the northeast and Great Lakes, don’t understand the spin by the same people

[Greg]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Water has been AN locally last year and this year. Boston harbor is 44 last I checked. That’s mild. That’s not helping in marginal setups which have been constant for almost 2 years now. It doesn’t have to be balls cold, but there has been virtually no cold in the northeast preceding events and storm tracks have been huggers.

Just curious Scott. How far off sure is deemed a good track to you, just curious not trolling. Personally, my favorites are just at to slightly "inside" the Benchmark. This gives us the opportunity for two things. 1. Heaviest precip shield and 2. Close enough but at the same time far enough away from the center to have a mostly if not all snow event with the exception of the "far" South Shore and Cape and Islands.

[SJonesWX]

it's easy to tell who on here wasn't around in the 80's. that was the time when Every. Single. Storm tainted. Didn't matter how far inland or north you were (outside of NNE of course). 

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

I know that there are some people on here who only appreciate snow, but I have a fetish for all record-breaking weather, whether it be snow, wind, rain, heat, cold, I love it all. I even keep track of unusual records that most people don't, like humidity. Last year, we had five days that maintained 100% rh for the whole day, which is a first. Before last year, we hadn't had a single day with 100% rh since 05/13/02 which is also crazy. 02/04/23 had extreme cold and wind chills, even more extreme than Valentines Day 2016. As long as we keep breaking records for different aspects of the weather, that still provides a decent dopamine rush for me. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, SJonesWX said:

it's easy to tell who on here wasn't around in the 80's. that was the time when Every. Single. Storm tainted. Didn't matter how far inland or north you were (outside of NNE of course). 

80s were very dry at times too. I lived through it. 

[Spanks45]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Water has been AN locally last year and this year. Boston harbor is 44 last I checked. That’s mild. That’s not helping in marginal setups which have been constant for almost 2 years now. It doesn’t have to be balls cold, but there has been virtually no cold in the northeast preceding events and storm tracks have been huggers.

Are these lows hugging the coastline because of the warmer waters along the coast? If so, that is a double whammy for all of us that aren't above 600ft moving forward....unless of course the coastal waters find some way to cool off in the future during the winter season.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Maybe winter hasn’t hit its stride because we never flipped the banter thread page from Autumn 2023?

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Are these lows hugging the coastline because of the warmer waters along the coast? If so, that is a double whammy for all of us that aren't above 600ft moving forward....unless of course the coastal waters find some way to cool off in the future during the winter season.

It’s because the pattern stinks. We have tracks near the cape and no issues before. But lousy airmasses can turn a less favorable track into crap.

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, Greg said:

Just curious Scott. How far off sure is deemed a good track to you, just curious not trolling. Personally, my favorites are just at to slightly "inside" the Benchmark. This gives us the opportunity for two things. 1. Heaviest precip shield and 2. Close enough but at the same time far enough away from the center to have a mostly if not all snow event with the exception of the "far" South Shore and Cape and Islands.

I’m not picky with tracks as I don’t need to jack. I just enjoy snow. Anything from the BM to SE of ACK usually works. 

[Greg]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not picky with tracks as I don’t need to jack. I just enjoy snow. Anything from the BM to SE of ACK usually works. 

Perfect track for the majority here. Excellent, I agree fully.

[SouthCoastMA]

Just outside the bm is optimal here

[Lava Rock]

50 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It’s been a historic warm winter, almost no lake ice anywhere in the northeast and Great Lakes, don’t understand the spin by the same people

not true in maine

[qg_omega]

12 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

not true in maine

Real lakes, not ponds 

[ORH_wxman]

51 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Are these lows hugging the coastline because of the warmer waters along the coast? If so, that is a double whammy for all of us that aren't above 600ft moving forward....unless of course the coastal waters find some way to cool off in the future during the winter season.

We’ve been in a predominately western trough pattern for years now. Tomorrow’s system even has major southwest flow aloft ahead of it…it’s not a coastal storm aloft…only at the sfc. The vortmax goes through Erie, PA…that’s basically a SWFE. 
 

Heres the past two winters combined. That’s a bad upper air pattern for good storm tracks here. You throw in a bit of bad luck too when we happened to be favorable, and that’s how you get some ugly numbers. 
 

 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’ve been in a predominately western trough pattern for years now. Tomorrow’s system even has major southwest flow aloft ahead of it…it’s not a coastal storm aloft…only at the sfc. The vortmax goes through Erie, PA…that’s basically a SWFE. 
 

Heres the past two winters combined. That’s a bad upper air pattern for good storm tracks here. You throw in a bit of bad luck too when we happened to be favorable, and that’s how you get some ugly numbers. 
 

 

That says it all.

[Spanks45]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’ve been in a predominately western trough pattern for years now. Tomorrow’s system even has major southwest flow aloft ahead of it…it’s not a coastal storm aloft…only at the sfc. The vortmax goes through Erie, PA…that’s basically a SWFE. 
 

Heres the past two winters combined. That’s a bad upper air pattern for good storm tracks here. You throw in a bit of bad luck too when we happened to be favorable, and that’s how you get some ugly numbers. 
 

 

That's pretty ugly....guess it is hard to say if the past 2 years is a trend or just a crappy 2 year winter pattern. Persistence for the win or loss depending on what side of the fence you are on...interesting how that area of higher heights on the east coast through the north Atlantic tends to run north of the gulf stream

[Lava Rock]

43 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Real lakes, not ponds 

lots of "real" lakes frozen

[Hazey]

So What is causing the predominately western troughing? Will we cut loose of it one of these winters?

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, Hazey said:

So What is causing the predominately western troughing? Will we cut loose of it one of these winters?

My educated guess is it will break. We’ve had western troughs produce some ugly multi-year periods in the east before (1972-1974 or early 1950s). 
 

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Real lakes, not ponds 

I think that 75,000-acre "pond" north of Greenville might be frozen over.

Maine waterbody nomenclature is a bit different.  Growing up in NNJ, we lived 100 yards from a 50-acre "lake", where I did most of my very frequent fishing.  Ten miles south of my current residence lies a 9,000-acre "pond".  At least it's named "Great Pond", largest of the Belgrade Lakes.  

[kdxken]

33 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I think that 75,000-acre "pond" north of Greenville might be frozen over.

Maine waterbody nomenclature is a bit different.  Growing up in NNJ, we lived 100 yards from a 50-acre "lake", where I did most of my very frequent fishing.  Ten miles south of my current residence lies a 9,000-acre "pond".  At least it' named "Great Pond", largest of the Belgrade Lakes.  

I didn't know you were so close to Belgrade lakes. The views from the golf course are spectacular.

Aroostook lake is frozen but not quite ready for trucks . From last week,

"I was standing there screaming at him to stop when he headed out,” Perkins said Monday via Facebook message. “We watched him walk out with [an ice chisel] and he chipped a hole in about five hits. [We] figured he was going to walk out and fish. All of a sudden he came flying out with the truck and down he went."

 

[dryslot]

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Real lakes, not ponds 

Real lakes and ponds have ice in Maine, Stick to NY climo.

[tamarack]

14 minutes ago, kdxken said:

I didn't know you were so close to Belgrade lakes. The views from the golf course are spectacular.

Aroostook lake is frozen but not quite ready for trucks . From last week,

"I was standing there screaming at him to stop when he headed out,” Perkins said Monday via Facebook message. “We watched him walk out with [an ice chisel] and he chipped a hole in about five hits. [We] figured he was going to walk out and fish. All of a sudden he came flying out with the truck and down he went."

 

9.7 miles from my snow stake to the northwesternmost cove of Great Pond, but to my SE, not south.

[DavisStraight]

42 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Real lakes and ponds have ice in Maine, Stick to NY climo.

We had about an inch on some of the bigger ponds/lakes last cold snap but thats gone, looks like maybe in the next week can start to get some decent ice.