New England Met Autumn 2023 Banter

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Am I in trouble here? @dendrite @tamarack

 

this is one of my blue spruces that I planted last year. This is the most severe, but 2 others have similar yellowing. The other 3 have a small amount, but appear to be generally okay.

[dendrite]

Not sure. I have the same thing going on with one of my huge ones and I've never seen it previously.

[WxWatcher007]

I take it this is bad too. Just started showing on the grass after the last rainer.

[tunafish]

  On 10/16/2023 at 1:21 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Am I in trouble here? @dendrite @tamarack

 

this is one of my blue spruces that I planted last year. This is the most severe, but 2 others have similar yellowing. The other 3 have a small amount, but appear to be generally okay.

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not sure what it is specifically but it looks a lot like what my young norway spruce's had after their second winter.  Ended up consuming the entire tree and killed it.  My neighbor lost an older (but still young) blue spruce at the same time so I'm thinking some kind of disease.

[backedgeapproaching]

  On 10/16/2023 at 3:17 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

I take it this is bad too. Just started showing on the grass after the last rainer.

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Lawn rust looks like.  Normally does not do long term damage.  You can put some Fertilizer down to help it grow out. 

[wokeupthisam]

  On 10/16/2023 at 1:21 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Am I in trouble here? @dendrite @tamarack

 

this is one of my blue spruces that I planted last year. This is the most severe, but 2 others have similar yellowing. The other 3 have a small amount, but appear to be generally okay.

If all the branches were affected I'd be looking for girdling of the lower trunk or problems in the roots like heavy grub or root aphid feeding, but some of the branches appear ok, and with so much moisture in the air and soil this year it could be a fungal issue like Rhizosphaera Needle Cast.  You can read up on the fungal diseases' symptoms and see if they match what you're seeing.  It's been a rough stretch of years stressing trees in general weather-wise for sure.

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[tamarack]

  On 10/15/2023 at 6:45 PM, DavisStraight said:

I tried booking a place in Vermont for April 24 eclipse and everything is booked. Maybe PF knows of something. If not, I'll drive up for the day or stay somewhere in Maine.

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The path center appears to pass a few miles north of Jackman.  However, that town of perhaps 800 might have 8,000 for the event.  The Attean Lake overlook a couple miles south of town would be a wonderful place to be, but the modest parking lot would likely be filled 3-4 hours ahead of the event.

[tamarack]

  On 10/16/2023 at 1:21 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Am I in trouble here? @dendrite @tamarack

 

this is one of my blue spruces that I planted last year. This is the most severe, but 2 others have similar yellowing. The other 3 have a small amount, but appear to be generally okay.

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Maybe.  Looks like most the new growth is fine, but the browning is troubling.  I wonder if a fungicide dowse next May might help, though an experienced nursery staffer would know more.  No sign of that on our ~20-ft blue, planted as a 4-ft tree 20 years ago.

[DavisStraight]

  On 10/16/2023 at 11:39 AM, tunafish said:

not sure what it is specifically but it looks a lot like what my young norway spruce's had after their second winter.  Ended up consuming the entire tree and killed it.  My neighbor lost an older (but still young) blue spruce at the same time so I'm thinking some kind of disease.

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I lost 5 a couple years back, Tamarack told me what it was bit I forgot.

[DavisStraight]

  On 10/16/2023 at 3:13 PM, tamarack said:

The path center appears to pass a few miles north of Jackman.  However, that town of perhaps 800 might have 8,000 for the event.  The Attean Lake overlook a couple miles south of town would be a wonderful place to be, but the modest parking lot would likely be filled 3-4 hours ahead of the event.

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Everyone jacked up prices too, imagine going up for 3 days 2 nights and its dreary and cloudy that day, I'll probably play it by ear and drive up that morning. I am on waiting lists if anyone drops out.

[tamarack]

  On 10/16/2023 at 6:59 PM, DavisStraight said:

Everyone jacked up prices too, imagine going up for 3 days 2 nights and its dreary and cloudy that day, I'll probably play it by ear and drive up that morning. I am on waiting lists if anyone drops out.

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April 8 in the north country is less than a sure thing for a sunny day.

[DavisStraight]

  On 10/16/2023 at 7:45 PM, tamarack said:

April 8 in the north country is less than a sure thing for a sunny day.

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That's why I'm thinking playing it by ear with a day trip and go to some back roads in Vermont/NH. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Is buying land before we have a plan for it dumb? We’ve always wanted to have a small place in NH, and I’ve seen some lots that go for 10-20k that would fit our purposes.

 

Wed eventually probably build a cheap cabin or something on it 

[CoastalWx]

  On 10/17/2023 at 1:25 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Is buying land before we have a plan for it dumb? We’ve always wanted to have a small place in NH, and I’ve seen some lots that go for 10-20k that would fit our purposes.

 

Wed eventually probably build a cheap cabin or something on it 

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It will always go up.  Can’t go wrong with real estate.

[DavisStraight]

  On 10/17/2023 at 1:25 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Is buying land before we have a plan for it dumb? We’ve always wanted to have a small place in NH, and I’ve seen some lots that go for 10-20k that would fit our purposes.

 

Wed eventually probably build a cheap cabin or something on it 

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If you like the lot and it's buildable, go for it, I kick myself for not jumping on some good deals 30 years ago on land I liked up north.

[Cold Miser]

  On 10/17/2023 at 1:41 AM, CoastalWx said:

It will always go up.  Can’t go wrong with real estate.

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The Chinese are always looking to buy U.S. land.

[Brewbeer]

  On 10/17/2023 at 1:25 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Is buying land before we have a plan for it dumb? We’ve always wanted to have a small place in NH, and I’ve seen some lots that go for 10-20k that would fit our purposes.

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before you jump think about the property taxes, very high in NH

[SJonesWX]

  On 10/17/2023 at 3:23 PM, Brewbeer said:

before you jump think about the property taxes, very high in NH

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that's not really accurate. it totally depends on the location, the town it is in, and the "usability" of the land. I own 5 acres of land-locked land (not accessible from a road, but through another property). I pay around $500/year for taxes. I access it through abutting neighbors property with deeded permission.

[monadnocks]

  On 10/17/2023 at 3:23 PM, Brewbeer said:

before you jump think about the property taxes, very high in NH

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Once you have enough to put some in current use, the $/acre go down significantly. Buy lakefront property in a town with a great or expensive school district and, yes, you will pay for that.  It's the total tax burden that tends to be lower but if it's just investment / weekend property, then the property tax will be higher than many places.

[dryslot]

  On 10/16/2023 at 7:45 PM, tamarack said:

April 8 in the north country is less than a sure thing for a sunny day.

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Probably wouldn't see shit when it could possibly still be seeing snow up there, A few years i was still riding in April in Jackman.

[tamarack]

  On 10/17/2023 at 4:00 PM, SJonesWX said:

that's not really accurate. it totally depends on the location, the town it is in, and the "usability" of the land. I own 5 acres of land-locked land (not accessible from a road, but through another property). I pay around $500/year for taxes. I access it through abutting neighbors property with deeded permission.

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Does NH have some kind of current-use/open space tax system?  We have 80 acres and 79 are in Maine's Tree Growth Tax Law status and our taxes are ~$275/year.  (80th acre slightly more, ~$1,600, as our house sits on it.)  TGTL requires a management plan prepared by a Maine-licensed forester, and should one later wish to withdraw and build houses, there's a significant penalty that gets costlier the longer one has been under TGTL.

[SJonesWX]

  On 10/17/2023 at 4:36 PM, tamarack said:

Does NH have some kind of current-use/open space tax system?  We have 80 acres and 79 are in Maine's Tree Growth Tax Law status and our taxes are ~$275/year.  (80th acre slightly more, ~$1,600, as our house sits on it.)  TGTL requires a management plan prepared by a Maine-licensed forester, and should one later wish to withdraw and build houses, there's a significant penalty that gets costlier the longer one has been under TGTL.

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yes, NH has current use-but I think it is a minimum of 10 acres. I only have 5

[tamarack]

  On 10/17/2023 at 4:41 PM, SJonesWX said:

yes, NH has current use-but I think it is a minimum of 10 acres. I only have 5

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10-acre minimum in Maine as well, and legislators are always trying to fiddle with the law, thankfully unsuccessful so far.  This past session's attempt was to raise the minimum to 25 acres and stipulated that the participants with 10-24 acres being kicked out of the program would be dinged for the penalty.  A 24-acre landowner would've been on the hook for $10k or more.

[Brewbeer]

  On 10/17/2023 at 4:00 PM, SJonesWX said:

that's not really accurate. it totally depends on the location, the town it is in, and the "usability" of the land. I own 5 acres of land-locked land (not accessible from a road, but through another property). I pay around $500/year for taxes. I access it through abutting neighbors property with deeded permission.

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that's true of all real estate 

NH has the 4th highest property tax rate in the country 

[SJonesWX]

  On 10/17/2023 at 6:02 PM, Brewbeer said:

that's true of all real estate 

NH has the 4th highest property tax rate in the country 

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now compare property values

my theory is this: the lower property values cancel out the higher property taxes. In other words, a 2k sf house in NH cost the same as a 2k sf house in MA (all other things being equal)

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 10/17/2023 at 2:26 AM, DavisStraight said:

If you like the lot and it's buildable, go for it, I kick myself for not jumping on some good deals 30 years ago on land I liked up north.

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5 years ago W MA and VT still had plenty of bargains and then Covid hit and the wealthy Tri-Staters came in and bought everything, often sight unseen.   I literally watched house and lot prices almost double.  What sucks is a lot of residential homes were bought as vacation houses that are maybe used a total of 30 days a year.  Makes it tough on the local working populations.  A friend of mine is a police officer in Wilmington VT and he said they have a hard time recruiting police and fire because there is no real estate available in S VT.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 10/17/2023 at 7:52 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

5 years ago W MA and VT still had plenty of bargains and then Covid hit and the wealthy Tri-Staters came in and bought everything, often sight unseen.   I literally watched house and lot prices almost double.  What sucks is a lot of residential homes were bought as vacation houses that are maybe used a total of 30 days a year.  Makes it tough on the local working populations.  A friend of mine is a police officer in Wilmington VT and he said they have a hard time recruiting police and fire because there is no real estate available in S VT.

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The housing issue is only getting worse as well. 
 

Supply is certainly screwed and interest rates have jacked up to the moon in lockstep with the Fed’s rate hikes and wild government spending jacking the 10 year yield on govt debt to 4.83% ( mortgage rates are usually 2.5_% or so above the 10 year yield )

Renters aren’t fairing much better .
 

It’s sort of comical that *House prices and rent had a multi decade relationship / ratio to income * and then in 2005 or so it got unhinged (Thanks to Wall Street mortgage securitization bonanza , the federal reserve buying mortgage backed securities for the better part of a decade after the 2008 housing crash into after Covid hit And it kept getting wider and wider and I believe peaked in early 2022, it hasn’t been able to come down bc new housing supply is so low, nobody wants to sell their home where they are locked in at 3% , institutions buy up substantial supply At premium prices  , And lastly unemployment is so low that there are few distressed sellers and now affordability is at record lows bc interest rates went from 3 to 7% and mortgage payments are thus up another 25-30% due to the magic of interest .
 

 

[metagraphica]

  On 10/17/2023 at 9:20 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The housing issue is only getting worse as well. 
 

Supply is certainly screwed and interest rates have jacked up to the moon in lockstep with the Fed’s rate hikes and wild government spending jacking the 10 year yield on govt debt to 4.83% ( mortgage rates are usually 2.5_% or so above the 10 year yield )

Renters aren’t fairing much better .
 

It’s sort of comical that *House prices and rent had a multi decade relationship / ratio to income * and then in 2005 or so it got unhinged (Thanks to Wall Street mortgage securitization bonanza , the federal reserve buying mortgage backed securities for the better part of a decade after the 2008 housing crash into after Covid hit And it kept getting wider and wider and I believe peaked in early 2022, it hasn’t been able to come down bc new housing supply is so low, nobody wants to sell their home where they are locked in at 3% , institutions buy up substantial supply At premium prices  , And lastly unemployment is so low that there are few distressed sellers and now affordability is at record lows bc interest rates went from 3 to 7% and mortgage payments are thus up another 25-30% due to the magic of interest .
 

 

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Ahh...late stage capitalism.  Just wonderful.   /s

[DavisStraight]

  On 10/17/2023 at 7:52 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

5 years ago W MA and VT still had plenty of bargains and then Covid hit and the wealthy Tri-Staters came in and bought everything, often sight unseen.   I literally watched house and lot prices almost double.  What sucks is a lot of residential homes were bought as vacation houses that are maybe used a total of 30 days a year.  Makes it tough on the local working populations.  A friend of mine is a police officer in Wilmington VT and he said they have a hard time recruiting police and fire because there is no real estate available in S VT.

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My neighbors bought 88 acres in Halifax years ago on the cheap and just sold their house here in town and moved into the house they built up there. Good foresight by them especially if you love snow.

[DavisStraight]

  On 10/17/2023 at 9:20 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The housing issue is only getting worse as well. 
 

Supply is certainly screwed and interest rates have jacked up to the moon in lockstep with the Fed’s rate hikes and wild government spending jacking the 10 year yield on govt debt to 4.83% ( mortgage rates are usually 2.5_% or so above the 10 year yield )

Renters aren’t fairing much better .
 

It’s sort of comical that *House prices and rent had a multi decade relationship / ratio to income * and then in 2005 or so it got unhinged (Thanks to Wall Street mortgage securitization bonanza , the federal reserve buying mortgage backed securities for the better part of a decade after the 2008 housing crash into after Covid hit And it kept getting wider and wider and I believe peaked in early 2022, it hasn’t been able to come down bc new housing supply is so low, nobody wants to sell their home where they are locked in at 3% , institutions buy up substantial supply At premium prices  , And lastly unemployment is so low that there are few distressed sellers and now affordability is at record lows bc interest rates went from 3 to 7% and mortgage payments are thus up another 25-30% due to the magic of interest .
 

 

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I deal with landlords all the time here and they all tell me they have a waiting list of tenants 30-40 long looking to rent, and rents not cheap.