What to expect in future MA winters (don't read this if you love snow)

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I’d compare DCA to BWI, SBY, and EZF though. The lows at DCA are often warmer than all three. 

BWI is closer to DCA at 59 for the same reason, while SBY and EZF are both in the 56-57 range.

Like raindance says, the 60F line is probably down closer to richmond. It’ll take a while for it to creep up, even if locally it gets there first at the river and bay areas. 
 

agreed - probably extremely urbanized areas (think most of DC, Arlington, Alexandria, parts of B'more) are close.  Everyone else is still a few degrees away.

[raindancewx]

This is my original map of the idea with site specific snow totals. So less snow as the yellow zone moves north.

[psuhoffman]

On 9/4/2023 at 9:50 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

it’s probably a down cycle with some CC sprinkled in there

 

On 9/4/2023 at 11:11 AM, Terpeast said:

That’s what I am hoping. I do think we still have some loaded winters coming up

I agree with this. I don’t want people to misinterpret my bleak assessment of how cc is impacted our snowfall results during less than ideal patterns and cycles to mean I think we don’t get snowstorms or anomalously snowy seasons anymore. We can and we will. 
 

Even if the worst case is true and 2016 was a tipping point and the climate zones have shifted, say we do have a climate more like Richmond VA now….even then we would still get snowy seasons. Just less often. 
 

Brooklyn: I’ve often compared the last 7 years to the early to mid 1970s. Both featured generally hostile pac patterns. Both were our least snowy long term cycles. But the mean pattern in the 70s was actually WORSE!  Look at the mean h5 from 1971-1976.  The pac is very similar to 2017-2023 but the high latitudes was much more hostile also in the 70s. Yet the snowfall results were even worse in the current hostile pac cycle.  
 

Obviously without running a sophisticated model with initializations from both periods and adjusting for cc we can’t say for sure, but I suspect that’s where cc comes in.  Without the warning since the 1970s the last 7 years would still have been a low snowfall period, but probably slightly better than that comparable period in the 70s which featured an equally hostile pac in conjunction with an even more hostile atl. 
 

None of that means we can’t get snow when the pac and Atlantic patterns both cooperate. My pessimism revolves around the fact that more of our seasons are flawed not good patterns. It always was that way. That’s not CC. But CC is making it harder to fight to a respectable snow total in those not great pattern seasons imo.  This study seems to support my gut based on anecdotal evidence on that. 

[TheClimateChanger]

14 hours ago, raindancewx said:

This is my original map of the idea with site specific snow totals. So less snow as the yellow zone moves north.

Using annual temperatures oversimplifies things a bit.

By annual mean, over the past 14 years, temperatures at Burlington, Vermont are now warmer than the annual mean temperatures of late 20th century (1961-1990) Albany, New York, and approaching that of Scranton, Pennsylvania. However, the winters are still much snowier than the latter two locations. Part of it is the winters are significantly colder than Scranton, but they are actually milder than late 20th century norms at Albany. Despite winter temperatures averaging some 5 degrees warmer than 1961-1990, there's been almost no drop in seasonal snowfall yet.

Burlington, Vermont (2010-2022) (2023 not included, but running even warmer than these values)

Mean Temperature

Mean Snowfall (2009-10 through 2022-23)

Burlington, Vermont (1961-1990) -- Note that the coldest year since 2010 is an unbelievable 2.1F warmer than the 30-year average from 1961-1990

Mean Temperature (1961-1990)

Snowfall (1960-61 through 1989-1990)

Albany, New York (1961-1990)

Mean Temperature (1961-1990)

Snowfall (1960/61 - 1989/90)

Scranton, PA (1961-1990)

Mean Temperature (1961-1990)

Snowfall (1960/61 - 1989/90)

 

[TheClimateChanger]

Here is the same comparison with Albany, New York.

Mean temperature for 2010-2022 is 49.9, compared to 47.2 for 1961-1990. Again, the coldest year since 2010 is warmer than the late 20th century mean.

Average seasonal snowfall for 2009-10 through 2022-23 is 54.5 inches, which is down about a foot from the 1960-61 through 1989-90 mean of 66.2 inches.

And here is Scranton, Pennsylvania:

Mean temperature for 2010-2022 is 51.7F, compared to 49.1F for 1961-1990. Yet again, we see the coldest year since 2010 is warmer than the 1961-1990 mean.

Snowfall for the period 2009-10 through 2022-23 is down about 20% from 1961-1990 mean

[TheClimateChanger]

Also, note I am using 1961-1990 mean since these give a good picture of the late 20th century climate many of us were familiar with when weather forums came about. These were the normals through 2000 and into 2001 until they were eventually replaced with 1971-2000 normals. The past decade and a half has seen the apparent climate for every location in the eastern U.S. shifted about 150-300 miles south compared to what was considered normal in the late 20th century. Somebody might say we need 30 years to do this analysis, but if I was a betting man, I'd certainly wager that the numbers will only get progressively worse over time.

[TheClimateChanger]

But in any event, if you are in northern or central Virginia, at a constant elevation, you now need to be in south central Pennsylvania to experience your normal late 20th century climate. We can see the mean temperatures at Harrisburg/Middleton Area, Pennsylvania, are now in between those of Sterling/Dulles Area, Virginia and Charlottesville, Virginia from the late 20th century.

In another decade or so, you will probably need to be in Williamsport or Scranton, PA, to experience a typical late 20th century Virginian climate, and by 2050, maybe Syracuse? I mean from the data I posted above Scranton is only about 2 degrees cooler than Sterling, Virginia (1961-1990) and the warmest years are already approaching Sterling's mean. Williamsport is even warmer being at a lower elevation.

Harrisburg/Middleton, PA (2010-2022)

Sterling/Dulles, VA (1962-1990)

Charlottesville, VA (1961-1990)

[87storms]

This winter will be telling.