Category Five Hurricane Lee

[SnoSki14]

So much for a strong Nino suppressing activity. Wind shear levels look like a Nina out in the Atlantic 

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

Don't see this too often. 

 

[Floydbuster]

The 18Z GFS had a 944 mb hurricane near the Turks and Caicos at 366 hrs, and it's not Lee. 

[olafminesaw]

Convection going up big time. Will eventually be what drives the formation of the eyewall barring any unforseen hickups

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

26 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Convection going up big time. Will eventually be what drives the formation of the eyewall barring any unforseen hickups

I think the large outer bands are a sign that this will be an above average size storm too. Typhoon tip in the west pac is a great example of an enormous circulation with a powerful small inner core.

[GaWx]

Last 5 EPS runs (0Z and 12Z only): # of members with CONUS H landfall

0Z 9/6: 5 (10%)

12Z 9/5: 2 (4%)

0Z 9/5: 4 (8%)

12Z 9/4: 1 (2%)

0Z 9/4: 2 (4%)

 So, although still a small %, the latest run has the highest yet.

[nycsnow]

Euro ensembles seemed west over night according to all the twitter Mets lol

[GaWx]

 The 6Z Euro hour 72 is slightly E of 0Z 78 and similar to yesterday's 12Z at 90.

[Boston Bulldog]

Lee already has an impressive inner core structure despite the E-NE shear its been dealing with

 

[Windspeed]

Lee is coming along with haste and will likely be a hurricane sometime overnight into Thursday. Waiting for those CBs to start swinging around the core. Should even see a period of RI on Thursday.

[so_whats_happening]

11 hours ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

 

Interesting, thanks. I'm assuming this can have big impacts on steering and thus path?

 

OT: How's Centerville Road traffic with all the construction? We left in August of 2021 shortly before it started. I graduated from Penn Manor, shadowed Horst on career shadowing day in middle school during construction of the current building and top floor lab, attended MU for meteorology for about a year before my immaturity led to dropping out -- Millersville is my old stomping grounds).

Now instead of watching hurricane impacts from behind a screen, I'm living them. Thank god for post-Andrew building codes, shutters, block houses, a bit of elevation, and a whole home generator.

Yes the more latent heat release the stronger the ridge is north of the storm. Would ultimately bring it further west, how far west before the turn is of course the question at hand.

Also very cool yea Centerville still a mess but getting better, I dont frequent around there too much but they are building a second bridge not sure what the plan is with that but anything will probably help out that situation. lol Yea good ol Millersville I was in classes with the current Mu wx center director, Kyle Elliott, also nice to see Dr. Clark representing Millersville as the current president of AMS! I hope to be able to go to the conference this year in Baltimore.

[olafminesaw]

22 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Lee is coming along with haste and will likely be a hurricane sometime overnight into Thursday. Waiting for those CBs to start swinging around the core. Should even see a period of RI on Thursday.

Can see a little shear preventing this thing from wrapping up quicker. Otherwise I'd say hurricane by early this evening , but should at least steadily strengthen until tomorrow when shear should relax, as you say

[NJwx85]

31 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Lee is coming along with haste and will likely be a hurricane sometime overnight into Thursday. Waiting for those CBs to start swinging around the core. Should even see a period of RI on Thursday.

This is probably already a hurricane. Just don't have recon to confirm so still going off satellite estimates. 

[StantonParkHoya]

When is recon scheduled to begin?

[SnowLover22]

30 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This is probably already a hurricane. Just don't have recon to confirm so still going off satellite estimates. 

Quote

000
NOUS42 KNHC 052054
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0455 PM EDT TUE 05 SEPTEMBER 2023
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2023
         TCPOD NUMBER.....23-098 AMENDMENT

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON TROPICAL STORM LEE AT 07/2330Z.
       B. NOAA 43 P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION INTO LEE FOR
          08/1200Z, DEPARTING TISX AT 08/0800Z.
       C. (ADDED) POSSIBLE USAF RESERVE WC-130J SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE
          MISSION AROUND TROPICAL STORM LEE FOR 08/0000Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN

Looks like reconnaissance on Lee will begin tomorrow 07/2330z. 

[RevWarReenactor]

LR reminds me a bit of Hurricane Edouard in 1996.  I was on the Jersey shore for that one and we still got winds and severe beach erosion despite it being pretty far out. Doesn't have to hit to have a impact.

 

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

As the tweet suggests, while there’s significant uncertainty over the strength and orientation of an E CONUS trough, there is a strong cross guidance signal of a more amplified ridge over the maritimes.

That’s a big deal IMO, because while that’s probably not enough by itself to cause land impacts (Bermuda aside), the impact of that ridge amplification probably blocks a quick escape and limits the odds a truly progressive trough develops. It also increases the odds that this bends more NW/NNW after the initial turn north.

[JonClaw]

41 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It also increases the odds that this bends more NW/NNW after the initial turn north.

The 00z Euro was showing something like this towards the end of the run.

[StantonParkHoya]

6z Euro is actually NE of yesterdays 6z run

[Ahoff]

11 hours ago, jdj5211 said:

GFS has this thing just crawling out there…


.

Wouldn't that cause more upwelling, and bringing that cooler water up to the surface?

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Wouldn't that cause more upwelling, and bringing that cooler water up to the surface?

yep...that's why you see stalled/slow moving canes slowly weaken

[WxWatcher007]

00z Euro did, but I’d caution everyone to stay away from the verbatim deterministic outcomes—exactly where Lee ends up at 240. It’s all about the steering pattern and multi-day trend.

As it stands, it still looks like the greatest likelihood is OTS (remember I was at 65% yesterday), but the two day trend in the steering pattern has increased the odds some of a threat to the east coast and/or Atlantic Canada IMO.

This is still an eternity away, and we don’t have recon sampling the environment ahead yet. 

 

[Ahoff]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yep...that's why you see stalled/slow moving canes slowly weaken

Yeah, that's what I mean.  If it stalls out in the ocean, we can only hope it pulls up cooler water.

[StantonParkHoya]

12z GFS about 100 miles NE of 6z position through 96

[Normandy]

The system to the east of Lee the GFS is developing is an issue.  It’s boosting ridging in top of Lee, which is pushing it further west

[NJwx85]

11 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

12z GFS about 100 miles NE of 6z position through 96

By 144hrs it's in nearly the same position as 06z.

[StantonParkHoya]

5 minutes ago, Normandy said:

The system to the east of Lee the GFS is developing is an issue.  It’s boosting ridging in top of Lee, which is pushing it further west

It's not further west

[Derecho!]

The main differences between the last two GFSes is speed; 12Z is slower. 

[brooklynwx99]

Comparing a pre-loading composite of all recent EC landfalls to the current pattern, I think that the risk for a landfall is unlikely outside of Nova Scotia. Looking at the pattern from a week out until landfall, we see an amplified trough digging into the Plains that leads to a strong blocking high forming just NE of Maine. This is not the case here.\

There is a weak, progressive trough that moves into the OH Valley that doesn't serve to establish a blocking high at all. In fact, the strongest positive anomalies are north of the Great Lakes. The rather zonal flow over Nova Scotia is probably why this storm is going to escape east... without that strong blocking high the landfall scenario looks unlikely without a large change in the pattern. Even a capture scenario would be possible if the trough dug more, but the pattern just doesn't look amplified enough.

The EPS is more what you'd want to see for an EC landfall with higher positive anomalies over SE Canada and a bit more digging with the trough over the E US, but even then it's far from ideal.

 

[jdj5211]

Looks like it’s riding 70W due north when past runs we were riding 65-67W. Something to keep note of moving forward


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