Category Five Hurricane Lee

[shaggy]

Am I wrong in thinking this is a major shift in the ensembles?

EDIT

 

[shaggy]

Intriguing 

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Intriguing 

Quite. 

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, Cincy12 said:

I feel like guidance fails to take into consideration the likelihood of major swifts when we’re talking about Cat 4-5 hurricanes. Irma, Maria I recall showed a “northern” trend and failed to produce. Sub 950’s hurricanes for lack of better words “have a mind of their own” to a certain point.


.

I see this “mind of their own” trope often, but I don’t understand it.  Don’t deeper cyclones tend to move more poleward?  IIRC, Irma defied the models (biased toward that climatologically-favored outcome in their longer ranges) because an anomalously-robust ridge to her north forced her south of due west at one point. 
 

Not saying that can’t happen again, of course.  But if it does, I do wonder if it’ll be because Lee to be has a “mind of his own.”

[nycsnow]

https://x.com/ryanmaue/status/1699216006223106229?s=46

[olafminesaw]

[Normandy]

While it certainly has good vorticity it’s still very broad.  This curved band is interesting on its west side

[csnavywx]

Ah, the dreaded shrimp. This storm is speedrunning all of the harbingers of a future buzzsaw.

Don't love that upstream pattern amplification trend on the latest runs, either.

[Windspeed]

Ah, the dreaded shrimp. This storm is speedrunning all of the harbingers of a future buzzsaw.
Don't love that upstream pattern amplification trend on the latest runs, either.

18z EPS members are S and SW of 12z at 144hr. Still clears the Leewards and PR, but the ridge is a tick west and stronger. May not result in ECONUS interactions yet, but we'll need to see if a trend is beginning.

[NeffsvilleWx]

33 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

https://x.com/ryanmaue/status/1699216006223106229?s=46

 

I really want to know what the + means in 5+. 

[Windspeed]

 
I really want to know what the + means in 5+. 

He probably just means significantly above the 135 kt threshhold. I mean, if Lee were to reach MPI after the first EWRC, it could get down in the 910s. A 150 kt storm is not impossible with this setup. I'm not calling for that as there can always be unexpected variables, but he probably thinks it will.

[so_whats_happening]

52 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

I see this “mind of their own” trope often, but I don’t understand it.  Don’t deeper cyclones tend to move more poleward?  IIRC, Irma defied the models (biased toward that climatologically-favored outcome in their longer ranges) because an anomalously-robust ridge to her north forced her south of due west at one point. 
 

Not saying that can’t happen again, of course.  But if it does, I do wonder if it’ll be because Lee to be has a “mind of his own.”

Latent heat release can be rather large and intense in strong systems so they tend to not be modeled all that well and some key things can get missed. That is the idea of a mind of its own because it can change up the atmosphere around the system given the right conditions. 

Just like in winter sometimes the thunderstorms off the east coast can be misrepresented thus leading to a stronger ridge than modeled. 

[csnavywx]

2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

7 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

 
I really want to know what the + means in 5+. 

He probably just means significantly above the 135 kt threshhold. I mean, if Lee were to reach MPI after the first EWRC, it could get down in the 910s. A 150 kt storm is not impossible with this setup. I'm not calling for that as there can always be unexpected variables, but he probably thinks it will.

Yeah, I mean the more reliable guidance is down in the 910s-920s with a superb setup and gargantuan upper level outflow channels, so it checks out. ERCs and a touch of mid-level shear are the biggest "issues".

[NeffsvilleWx]

7 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

12 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

 
I really want to know what the + means in 5+. 

He probably just means significantly above the 135 kt threshhold. I mean, if Lee were to reach MPI after the first EWRC, it could get down in the 910s. A 150 kt storm is not impossible with this setup. I'm not calling for that as there can always be unexpected variables, but he probably thinks it will.

 

The "+" is unnecessary sensationalism and not even a "thing." Just call it a strong cat 5. Draw a comparison to Camille or something. Don't make shit up for effect, it makes you look dumb.

[NeffsvilleWx]

11 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Latent heat release can be rather large and intense in strong systems so they tend to not be modeled all that well and some key things can get missed. That is the idea of a mind of its own because it can change up the atmosphere around the system given the right conditions. 

Just like in winter sometimes the thunderstorms off the east coast can be misrepresented thus leading to a stronger ridge than modeled. 

 

Interesting, thanks. I'm assuming this can have big impacts on steering and thus path?

 

OT: How's Centerville Road traffic with all the construction? We left in August of 2021 shortly before it started. I graduated from Penn Manor, shadowed Horst on career shadowing day in middle school during construction of the current building and top floor lab, attended MU for meteorology for about a year before my immaturity led to dropping out -- Millersville is my old stomping grounds).

Now instead of watching hurricane impacts from behind a screen, I'm living them. Thank god for post-Andrew building codes, shutters, block houses, a bit of elevation, and a whole home generator.

[cptcatz]

18z euro ensembles definitely more sw than previous runs...

[Windspeed]

 
The "+" is unnecessary sensationalism and not even a "thing." Just call it a strong cat 5. Draw a comparison to Camille or something. Don't make shit up for effect, it makes you look dumb.

I don't disagree, I just figured that was his angle. I'm not going to let Ryan Maue ruin my day. lol...

[Windspeed]

While it certainly has good vorticity it’s still very broad.  This curved band is interesting on its west side

Interesting discussion going on about that "death band". May aid in rapidly developing the core tonight.

[rygar]

36 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

 

The "+" is unnecessary sensationalism and not even a "thing." Just call it a strong cat 5. Draw a comparison to Camille or something. Don't make shit up for effect, it makes you look dumb.

You argument is that the word "strong" is better than a + sign. There is no difference, both convey a hurricane with winds higher than the cat 5 minimum standard 

[Castaway]

Speaking of Shrimp, after eyeballing this thing on satellite loop past hrs lol, I kept recalling Dorian when it was in its shrimp phase before taking off and eventually becoming a beast. 
 

Even though Dorian developed it more west around Barbados I believe.
 

Catching similar vibes, especially if it’s headed on track towards the east side of the Bahamas area. 

Might be premature, but wouldn’t be surprised this is hurricane status after a few more cycles in the next few hours or so.

[NeffsvilleWx]

14 minutes ago, rygar said:

You argument is that the word "strong" is better than a + sign. There is no difference, both convey a hurricane with winds higher than the cat 5 minimum standard 

No, my argument is that the "+" implies numbers greater than 5 exist. For a public that already struggles with basic weather stuff, let's not further muddy the waters when we know better.

[NJwx85]

https://x.com/raleighwx/status/1699233171601023038?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw

[CarbondaleWX]

2 hours ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

 

I really want to know what the + means in 5+. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Good movie

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[MJO812]

Icon

[jdj5211]

GFS has this thing just crawling out there…


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[StantonParkHoya]

0z GFS with a close call on Bermuda 

[StantonParkHoya]

0z CMC direct hit on Bermuda

[GaWx]

 The 0Z UKMET is a bit stronger. But more importantly, it is recurving 200 miles E of the 12Z run thus implying a significantly lower risk of landfall to the CONUS. Whereas two runs ago it was in the SE Bahamas and the last run was just N of the SE Bahamas, this run is ~250 miles NE of those islands:

TROPICAL STORM LEE        ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N  42.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 06.09.2023    0  13.8N  42.1W     1008            27
    1200UTC 06.09.2023   12  14.1N  44.7W     1006            37
    0000UTC 07.09.2023   24  15.3N  46.9W     1004            41
    1200UTC 07.09.2023   36  16.4N  49.5W     1003            34
    0000UTC 08.09.2023   48  17.0N  52.2W     1003            35
    1200UTC 08.09.2023   60  17.7N  54.9W     1002            42
    0000UTC 09.09.2023   72  18.4N  57.9W     1000            45
    1200UTC 09.09.2023   84  18.8N  60.2W     1000            48
    0000UTC 10.09.2023   96  19.8N  62.1W      998            53
    1200UTC 10.09.2023  108  20.5N  64.2W      998            55
    0000UTC 11.09.2023  120  20.8N  65.6W      997            54
    1200UTC 11.09.2023  132  21.2N  67.0W      996            52
    0000UTC 12.09.2023  144  22.0N  67.7W      993            54
    1200UTC 12.09.2023  156  23.3N  68.0W      987            51
    0000UTC 13.09.2023  168  24.4N  68.9W      977            56

[USCG RS]

36 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

0z CMC direct hit on Bermuda

So Bermuda is safe.