olafminesaw Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: If I remember correctly I believe Sam from a couple of years ago was forecast to be a major by 120 hrs on its first advisory but I’m certain it wasn’t 120 kts. Maybe something in the East Pacific had an intensity forecast like this but I’m not entirely sure Hilary was forecasted at 105 kts on it's first advisory (skipped straight to 35kt TS). Pretty similar in terms of model consensus for a powerful hurricane at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Hilary was forecasted at 105 kts on it's first advisory (skipped straight to 35kt TS). Pretty similar in terms of model consensus for a powerful hurricane at this range. Walaka out in the CPAC back in 2018 was forecast 110 kts on it’s first advisory too. It eventually peaked at 140 kts, 921 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 6 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Yep alot more ridging on this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yep alot more ridging on this run 12z GFS was very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 12Z UKMET 162-168 shows start of recurve but much closer to SE than other models implying a potential problem for NC north after run ends considering that it is recurving at least 5 degrees (~300 miles) further west than GFS: scroll down to see each map SLP 162https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/2023090512/middle-america/sea-level-pressure/20230912-0600z.html SLP 168https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/2023090512/middle-america/sea-level-pressure/20230912-1200z.html H5 at 162https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/2023090512/north-america/geopotential-height-500hpa/20230912-0600z.html H5 at 168https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/2023090512/north-america/geopotential-height-500hpa/20230912-1200z.html Edited 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 TAFB ATCF Best Track now has AL132023 as a Tropical Storm. Would expect an upgrade to Lee by the NHC at 5PM AST. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 A bit of a shift on the GEFS as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Now every GEFS member misses the US. At 6z there were 2 questionable. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 60W/20N is a significant landmark. Storms that pass NE of it go out to sea 90% of the time, storms that pass SW are more likely to hit land, at I think 60/40, all storms included. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 20 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: A bit of a shift on the GEFS as well The 12Z UKMET is 250++ miles west of all of the 12Z GEFS members except for that one on the left, which it is close to. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Textbook look on last images of visible this evening. Cannot wait to see this thing explode in the open ocean. I’d say the odds are probably 90% this thing recurves but it may come close enough to cause impacts beyond large waves 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: A bit of a shift on the GEFS as well I don’t think the EC becomes a possibility unless and until we see either: (1) south of due west motion; and/or (2) a center reformation to the south (unlikely, given the low shear environment). If any of these occur, then I’ll be interested in it as something more than a swell generator. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 5, 2023 Author Share Posted September 5, 2023 This thing is taking off. My goodness. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This thing is taking off. My goodness. We now have TS Lee. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 5, 2023 Author Share Posted September 5, 2023 14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: We now have TS Lee. Won’t be a TS long at this rate. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 ^ Lee will be a major hurricane well before this weekend. Expect the core to fully consolidate by 06Z Wednesday and RI by 06Z Thursday. Unless some weird structural issue occurs, it should be able to reach its first MPI hurdle of 100 kts and first ERC by 06Z Friday, perhaps even earlier. I just don't really see any inhibiting factors at all right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 The 12Z Korean has a 940 mb MH at 276 just S of Long Island that then slams Suffolk County 9/16-7: https://weather.us/model-charts/korea/2023090512/usa/sea-level-pressure/20230917-0000z.html 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Play-by-play: Latest GFS run has ticked slightly south at hr 138. Commentary: remember the early model runs of Maria took her into the Chesapeake Bay? Completely missed way south ended up recurving into the backside of Florida. So long range is almost useless to hang onto edit: this is my post # 666. Wonder if that bodes ill? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 8 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: Play-by-play: Latest GFS run has ticked slightly south at hr 138. Commentary: remember the early model runs of Maria took her into the Chesapeake Bay? Completely missed way south ended up recurving into the backside of Florida. So long range is almost useless to hang onto edit: this is my post # 666. Wonder if that bodes ill? 150 hours out before crossing the rubicon isn’t exactly an early run or long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Trough looks less amped in the great lakes when he makes the turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, shaggy said: Trough looks less amped in the great lakes when he makes the turn Trough is actually more amped this run and further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Trough is actually more amped this run and further east Yup i was only out to 138hrs and looked less amped but then it really digs in. This is gonna be an easy kicker scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Misses CONUS, may miss Canada 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Play-by-play: Latest GFS run has ticked slightly south at hr 138. Commentary: remember the early model runs of Maria took her into the Chesapeake Bay? Completely missed way south ended up recurving into the backside of Florida. So long range is almost useless to hang onto edit: this is my post # 666. Wonder if that bodes ill?I feel like guidance fails to take into consideration the likelihood of major swifts when we’re talking about Cat 4-5 hurricanes. Irma, Maria I recall showed a “northern” trend and failed to produce. Sub 950’s hurricanes for lack of better words “have a mind of their own” to a certain point. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 22 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Misses CONUS, may miss Canada Hoping it stays this way but can’t wait to see the eye candy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 So far ensembles are better clustered and a few western strays 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Gonna be some nasty swells and erosion regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 4 hours ago, Intensewind002 said: If I remember correctly I believe Sam from a couple of years ago was forecast to be a major by 120 hrs on its first advisory but I’m certain it wasn’t 120 kts. Maybe something in the East Pacific had an intensity forecast like this but I’m not entirely sure Edit: I found that Hurricane Walaka in the Central Pacific was forecast to reach 110 kts on it’s first advisory, eventually it peaked as a Cat 5. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/cp01/cp012018.discus.001.shtml? Good memory! Sam was forecast to hit 115 mph at 120 hrs... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2021/al18/al182021.discus.001.shtml? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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